Violent conflict and economic growth: Some time-series evidence

This paper uses time-series methods to examine interrelationships between growth and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Results show bidirectional causalities, but the key determinant of conflict risk is prior conflict experience, not fluctuations in economic growth.     

Secondary Capital Markets, Long-Run Growth, and the Term Structure of Asset Yields

An endogenous growth model is presented in which production uses a vector of capital inputs. Technologies for creating capital of different types vary by gestation period and productivity. Ownership of gestating capital must be "rolled over" in secondary capital markets in which transactions are costly. We study how reductions in transactions costs affect the equilibrium growth rate, the rate of return on saving, the volume of activity in secondary capital markets, and the term structure of asset yields. We give conditions under which reductions in transactions costs result in higher or lower growth rates.     

Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact

In this paper we analyze how to apply cross-impact modeling for developing collaborative scenarios in Emergency Preparedness. Scenarios can enhance the understanding of emergency teams about the factors which are involved in the definition of an emergency plan and how different actors participate in it. The version of Cross-Impact Analysis described aims at contributing to this goal through allowing the collaborative development of scenarios out of large event sets. This ultimately reduces the complexity for estimating a working model. In order to illustrate this research effort hypothetical results of a dirty bomb attack scenario exercise are presented, along with the final estimates of relationships based on four rounds of individual estimates followed by discussion of differences in the perceived relationships, in order to achieve a “consensus” model. The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate the ability of a group to create a working model of the scenario that may be used to examine the consequences of various assumptions about preparedness, plans, and the actions taken during the crisis situation. The method may be used as either a planning tool and/or a training tool. We discuss the process for collecting inputs from a collaborative group and how to improve the consistency of the group inputs in a Delphi-like feedback process. Suggestions for improving details of the wording of items in order to minimize misunderstandings and miscommunication are included, along with suggestions for future extensions to this research.     

Shareholder preferences concerning corporate ethical performance

This study surveyed investors to determine the extent to which they preferred ethical behavior to profits and their interest in having information about corporate ethical behavior reported in the corporate annual report. First, investors were asked to determine what penalties should be assessed against employees who engage in profitable, but unethical, behavior. Second, investors were asked about their interest in using the annual report to disclose the ethical performance of the corporation and company officials. Finally, investors were asked if they felt that ethics reports should be audited.The survey results indicate that many shareholders (42%) do not expect a high level of ethical behavior from corporate employees or officers. There is a significant amount of interest in disclosure of ethical issues (72%) and unwillingness to trust management to provide unbiased reports of ethical behavior. If such reports are included with the financial statements, 32 percent of the investors surveyed would prefer to have them audited to provide independent verification.Marc J. Epstein is currently a Visiting Professor at the Graduate School of Business Administration at Harvard University Ruth Ann McEwen, Associate Professor, and Roxanne M. Spindle, Assistant Professor, are members of the Accounting Department at Virginia Commonwealth University.     

Equity Markets, Transactions Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration

Poorly developed equity markets inhibit the transfer of capitalownership. Moreover, the costs of transacting in equity marketsaffect not just the level of investment, but the kinds of investmentsthat are undertaken. Once equity markets allow the ownershipof capital to be transferred economically, reductions in coststend to favor the use of longer-maturity investments. When thereis a relationship between the maturity of an investment andits productivity, transactions cost reductions are conduciveto observing certain kinds of increases in productive efficiency.This article analyzes savings, investment, and consumption decisionsby using an overlapping generations model with two-period-livedagents. The analysis allows for several technologies for convertingcurrent output into future capital that vary by productivityand maturity, and it makes ownership of capital costly to transfer.A reduction in transactions costs will typically alter the compositionof savings and investment, and have potentially complicatedconsequences for capital accumulation and steady-state output.     

Distributed group support systems: Social dynamics and design dilemmas

A “distributed group support system”; includes decision support tools and structures embedded within a computer‐mediated communication system rather than installed in a “decision room.”; It should support groups who are distributed in space but not time ("synchronous”; groups), as well as “asynchronous”; groups whose members participate at different times. Pilot studies conducted in preparation for a series of controlled experiments are reviewed in order to identify some of the problems of implementing such a system. Many of the means used by groups meeting in the same place at the same time to coordinate their activities are missing. Embedding decision support tools within a different communications medium and environment changes the way they “work.”; Speculations are presented about software tools and structuring or facilitation procedures that might replace the “missing”; coordination channels.     

Forecasting Success on Large Projects: Developing Reliable Scales to Predict Multiple Perspectives by Multiple Stakeholders Over Multiple Time Frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.     

Coordination Structures and System Restrictiveness in Distributed Group Support Systems

Most GSS research has studied the impact of restricting group interaction to GSS-prescribed coordination structures with face-to-face groups, while Distributed GSS (DGSS) has been largely ignored. Due to the nature of mediated communication in asynchronous interaction, it is relatively difficult to coordinate distributed groups, and a special coordination structure must be arranged to overcome these difficulties. This study examines the effect of system restrictiveness of coordination structures in an asynchronous environment. A 2 × 2 factorial experiment was designed with two independent variables – sequential vs. parallel coordination mode, and with vs. without a leader – to construct coordination structures with varying degrees of restrictiveness. The study finds that less restrictive coordination structures are more appropriate to support asynchronously interacting distributed groups. Objective decision quality is equal for both parallel and sequential coordination mode, but is significantly better with a group leader. Groups with parallel coordination mode have a stronger belief that the decisions they made are of higher quality than those of groups with sequential coordination mode. In groups with a leader, communication effectiveness is better. Satisfaction with a decision process is higher in parallel coordination groups and in groups with a leader. There is also a significant interaction effect. Satisfaction with the decision process is higher in sequential coordination groups with a leader than sequential coordination groups without a leader.     

Freedom Net

As the Internet becomes ubiquitous, there is widespread anxiety that it is either a source of moral corruption or a threat to business. This anxiety stems from the fact that the Internet calls the most restrictive aspects of legislation into question. Because the Internet is intrinsically orientated towards freedom, it should be championed, but there is a danger of celebrating new technology as an end in itself rather than the uses to which it can be put. Those commentators who most zealously promote the Internet are often as deluded as those who are afraid of it.