Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2016

Last year saw only a moderate economic upturn, which will continue in 2016. Geopolitical risks and the loss of momentum in the emerging economies are obstacles that may hinder a positive trend in exports. However, the falling crude oil price and the low euro currency rate give hope for better prospects. On the domestic front, there is a strong focus on the digitisation of all sectors. Meanwhile, many problems result from the low level of investments and the high energy costs resulting from the energy transition. The insurance industry views the low-yield environment, which greatly intensified last year, as its main challenge in 2016.     

Blockchain in Additive Manufacturing and its Impact on Supply Chains

Additive manufacturing (AM) appears to be a particularly attractive use case for blockchain. This research combines inductive in‐depth interviews with the Delphi method to explore what potentials blockchain technology in AM creates, which adoption barriers firms need to overcome, and how supply chains will be affected by the integration of these two potentially disruptive technologies. The results suggest opportunities that are related to intellectual property (IP) rights management, the monitoring of printed parts throughout their lifecycle, process improvements, and data security. The most important barriers for blockchain adoption in AM are an absence of blockchain‐skilled specialists on the labor market, missing governance mechanisms, and a lack of firm‐internal technical expertise. By addressing important limitations of AM, blockchain is expected to improve the competitiveness of AM in parts’ production, catalyzing the trend toward more decentralized manufacturing resulting in more agile, resilient, and flexible supply chains and reduced logistics costs. Beyond that, blockchain‐based AM platforms are expected to enhance supply chain visibility, drive supply chain digitalization, support supply chain finance, and contribute to the emergence of shared factory systems.     

The geographic determinants of bankruptcy: evidence from Switzerland

This paper examines the geographic determinants of firm bankruptcy. We employ hazard rate models to study the bankruptcy risk of a firm, allowing for time-varying covariates. Based on a large sample from all geographic areas and the major sectors of the Swiss economy, we find the following main results: (1) Bankruptcy rates tend to be lower in the central municipalities of agglomerations; (2) bankruptcy rates are lower in regions with favorable business conditions (where corporate taxes and unemployment are low and public investment is high); (3) private taxes and public spending at the local level have little impact on bankruptcy rates.     

Was ist von der Familienpolitik der Großen Koalition zu erwarten?

A major evaluation of family policies in Germany came to the primary conclusions that family leave and early childhood education and care policies are effective. Specific German tax regulations, however, are less effective, as they decrease the incentives, especially for mothers, to return to the labour market or increase the number of hours they work. The tax regulations for couples, in particular, should be reformed, as this would offer funding possibilities for other worthwhile policies. However, it should not be forgotten that tax regulations are not just aimed at family policies. Indeed, their primary function is to reduce the burden on families and to keep them out of poverty, as demanded by the Germany Federal Constitutional Court. Given the findings of this evaluation, the new German government plans to implement policies which make sense but which do not go far enough. Public child care has been shown to increase maternal employment, household income and fertility in Germany. There are good reasons to invest further in public child care for young children; however, the focus should not only be on the quantity but also the quality of care.     

Gesundheitsfonds — effizientere Steuerung des Gesundheitssystems?

In 2009 the German central health fund was implemented. It was the result of a political compromise. One political party intended to equalise the risk structure among 130 different health care funds, and the other wanted to intensify competition and to improve efficiency among the different health insurances. The fund is flanked by a health-based risk adjustment and is aimed at sustainably ensuring the funding of the statutory health insurance system. It also constitutes the basis for competition among statutory health care funds, securing quality and efficiency in health care provision. To cover additional expenditures, health insurers had to charge flatrate premiums. A new law, which will come into effect in January 2015, will oblige health insurers to charge income related contributions. It is not clear how this will change competition among insurers. The federal government will not need to finance subsidies to low income individuals anymore. Income redistribution will only take place within the public health insurance system, exempting the privately insured and public servants from supporting low income individuals. The authors claim that the health care fund will not succeed in its aim of securing a sustainable financial basis for the statutory health insurance system. Most of the authors argue that there is no evidence of greater efficiency thus far, and they offer proposals on how to achieve improved performance.