ASYMMETRY OF CUSTOMER LOSS AND RECOVERY UNDER ENDOGENOUS PARTNERSHIPS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE*

This article is inspired by real‐world phenomena that firms lose customers based on imprecise information and take a long time to recover. If consumers are playing an ordinary repeated game with fixed partners, there is no clear reason why recovery happens slowly. However, if consumers are playing an endogenously repeated game, a class of simple efficient equilibria exhibits the asymmetry of fast loss and slow recovery of customers after a bad signal. Exit is systematic, but formation of a new partnership is random. We also give empirical evidence of our equilibria at an individual‐firm level.     

Internationalization of Blue-Chip versus Mid-Cap Stock Indices: an Empirical Analysis for France,Germany, and the UK

The paper analyzes the question whether blue-chip stock indices provide a larger degree of internationalization than mid-cap stock indices. Specific focus lies on internationalization of indices in France, Germany, and the UK. Additionally, we analyze whether the degree of internationalization differs between industries. The dataset covers the CAC40, the DAX30 and the 30 largest firms in the FTSE100 as blue-chip indices and the CAC Next 20 and CAC Mid 60, the MDAX and TecDAX, and the remaining 70 companies in the FTSE100 as mid-cap indices. The comparison of blue-chip and mid-cap indices is based on three indicators of internationalization: percentages of employees based outside the firms’ home country, percentages of foreign sales, and percentages of foreign corporate tax payments. Blue-chip and mid-cap indices exhibit high levels of internationalization. Internationalization is stronger in German and UK blue-chip indices than in these countries’ mid-cap indices, whereas internationalization in French mid-cap and blue-chip indices is similar. Blue-chip and mid-cap firms in the energy/materials/utilities and industrials sectors exhibit similar levels of internationalization, whereas blue-chip firms in the consumer and health sectors exhibit higher levels than corresponding mid-cap firms. The research question and results are of particular importance for retail and institutional investors, because investing in indices typically represents a low cost alternative to individual stock picking. The question whether stock index characteristics, such as market capitalization and industry, influence the degree of international diversification within the index is largely unanswered in the literature. The paper addresses this question.     

Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2016

Last year saw only a moderate economic upturn, which will continue in 2016. Geopolitical risks and the loss of momentum in the emerging economies are obstacles that may hinder a positive trend in exports. However, the falling crude oil price and the low euro currency rate give hope for better prospects. On the domestic front, there is a strong focus on the digitisation of all sectors. Meanwhile, many problems result from the low level of investments and the high energy costs resulting from the energy transition. The insurance industry views the low-yield environment, which greatly intensified last year, as its main challenge in 2016.     

Housing and Health

Deprived housing is recognized as a source of poor health, but there is still little evidence of a causal relationship between housing and health. While existing literature identifies neighborhood effects and the individual dwelling as factors which affect health, it does not offer a joint examination of these factors. Moreover, endogeneity is a concern in analyses of both problems. Thus far, studies addressing endogeneity have done so through experimental design or instrumental variables. The first approach suffers from problems of external validity and the latter from the lack of reliable instruments. We therefore adopt an alternative strategy which considers both sources of endogeneity in order to identify the effects of housing on health by estimating fixed‐effect models. We reveal how housing problems affect health depending on living conditions and socioeconomic status. Our results therefore indicate that living in poor housing is an important short‐term socioeconomic determinant that directly affects health.     

Taxonomic Model of Withdrawal Behaviors: The Adaptive Response Model

This article presents and develops a theoretical model (The Adaptive Response Model; ARM) that proposes how employees adapt to the organization following changes in organizational policies that are perceived as dissatisfying. The ARM combines several streams of theoretical and empirical research in IO-Psychology. It suggests that different type of employees (i.e., institutionalized stars, citizens, lone wolves, and apathetics) resort to different behaviors to adjust to dissatisfying events. Institutionalized stars tend to exercise voice, lone wolves tend to exit, citizens tend to accept, and apathetics tend to resort to alternative forms of withdrawal (e.g., lateness, absenteeism, and theft). Implications for the management of each employee type as well as suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Prediction markets for foresight

To navigate turbulent business environments, organizations have to develop foresight capacities that enable them to anticipate probable futures, respond rapidly to emerging changes, and support future oriented action. However, there are remaining barriers that impede a wider implementation of foresight. In particular, the necessities to deal with the future, anticipate change, enhance participation and reduce costs and complexity call for new methods to improve current foresight activities. In this paper, we introduce prediction markets to the field of foresight. Prediction markets are a structured approach to collect and aggregate information from groups and have recently gained attention in forecasting. Prediction markets go beyond simple forecasting and can contribute to foresight by providing advantages in terms of continuous and real-time information aggregation, motivation of participation and information revelation as well as cost-efficiency and scalability. We suggest four promising fields of application for prediction markets to enhance foresight: (1) continuous forecasting and environmental scanning, (2) combining with deliberative approaches, (3) continuous idea generation and (4) expert identification. We conclude by considering prediction markets as a nascent and promising method for foresight and advocate for further research.     

Wie man durch Moral ins „Geschäft“ kommt: Ein ordonomischer Beitrag zum betrieblichen Risikomanagement

Through an analysis of Alfred Krupp’s 19th-century social welfare program, this paper develops an ordonomic contribution to corporate risk management. The paper argues that companies can employ ‘morality as a factor of production’ by a differentiated business strategy of moral commitments. In this way, companies can not only considerably reduce their exposure to the undesirable risks of losing core business relationships with important stakeholders. But at the same time, businesses may increase their readiness to take desirable innovation risks that are pivotal for long-term value creation. Ultimately, the paper develops an argument for how companies can better live up to the role of being an agent of societal value creation, often articulated by concepts such as “corporate social responsibility” or “corporate citizenship”.     

Determinants of heterogeneity in European credit ratings

In this study, we empirically analyze the determinants of heterogeneity in rating assessments across different segments of the European loan market. We conduct a benchmarking analysis using rating information on European corporate obligors from nine major Austrian banks that have a large share of foreign lending, particularly in the Central and Eastern European region. We provide evidence that, generally, overall heterogeneity among rating outcomes for foreign markets is higher than for domestic markets. Furthermore, we show that heterogeneity increases in transition economies and those markets where Austrian bank involvement is relatively low. Our evidence supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in the assessment of credit risk is determined not only by the objective quality of information, which is deemed to be lower in transition economies, but also by the subjective access to information about obligors measured by the level of domestic bank involvement in the respective foreign market. Furthermore, we quantify potential effects on regulatory capital requirements.     

Disentangling the effect of services on B2B firm value: Trade-offs of sales,profits, and earnings volatility

In the face of declining business and growing pressures from low-cost competitors, many business-to-business (B2B) manufacturers have moved from their previously successful product-centric strategies to more service-oriented business models. Yet despite their substantial investments in services, firms fail to understand the performance ramifications of these offerings. With a longitudinal data set (2001–2016) of 227 B2B manufacturers listed in the S&P 1500 index, this study disentangles the simultaneous effects of financial-based mechanisms that link the service ratio (i.e., share of a firm's revenue generated from selling services) to firm value. The findings reveal significant trade-offs across these mechanisms. Although the service ratio monotonously boosts sales growth, it has U-shaped curvilinear relationships with profitability and earnings volatility. These effects also depend on industry- and firm-level factors. Industry maturity positively moderates the effects of the service ratio on sales growth and profitability. However, business scope has an adverse effect on the service ratio–profitability relationship. Finally, industry turbulence negatively moderates the effect of services on earnings volatility.