Exchange rate expectations and risk premia in the European Monetary System: 1985–1991

Using a new set of survey data on EMS exchange rates, we investigate exchange rate expectations and risk premia between December 1985 and August 1991 to assess credibility of the system. It appears that the EMS—with the exception of the Italian lira—had become credible since early 1990. Moreover, one of the core predictions of the target zone literature—the inverse correlation between the position of the spot rate in the fluctuation band with its expected change—is corroborated for several currencies in the period after April 1990. Although the system appeared to be more credible, the persistence of interest differentials suggested the existence of risk premia. For four out of six currencies we find a significant relationship between the risk premium and the inflation differential relative to Germany.     

Payments for environmental services in Costa Rica

Costa Rica pioneered the use of the payments for environmental services (PES) approach in developing countries by establishing a formal, country-wide program of payments, the PSA program. The PSA program has worked hard to develop mechanisms to charge the users of environmental services for the services they receive. It has made substantial progress in charging water users, and more limited progress in charging biodiversity and carbon sequestration users. Because of the way it makes payments to service providers (using approaches largely inherited from earlier programs), however, the PSA program has considerable room for improvement in the efficiency with which it generates environmental services. With experience, many of these weaknesses are being gradually corrected as the PSA program evolves towards a much more targeted and differentiated program. An important lesson is the need to be flexible and to adapt to lessons learned and to changing circumstances.     

Manipulation of endowments and sunspot equilibria

We study the connection between occurrence of manipulation via reallocating endowments by coalitions and sunspot equilibria. The uncertainty about which coalition will form introduces extrinsic uncertainty into the economy. Under certain conditions, manipulation of endowments by coalitions can occur if and only if sunspots matter. We would like to thank Bill Ethier, Atsushi Kajii, Cuong Le Van, Karl Shell, Koji Shimomura, Nicholas Yannelis, an anonymous referee, as well as seminar participants at the Second Asian General Equilibrium Theory Workshop, 2005, Tokyo; Workshop on Uncertainty and Information, IMS, NUS, 2005; Kobe Institute of Economic Research; Public Economic Theory 2005 Conference, Marseille; and the South and South East Asia Econometric Society Meetings, 2006, Chennai for helpful discussions and comments.     

Government Policies Supporting Open Source Software for the Mass Market

This paper analyzes the impact on social welfare of government policies supporting open source software (OSS). Mass-market consumers can be divided between those who are informed about the existence of OSS and those who are uninformed. Since OSS producers have little incentive to advertise, there may be a substantial mass of uniformed consumers, leading to market failures that may justify government intervention. We study three government policies: (a) mandated adoption, whereby the government forces public agencies, schools, and universities to adopt OSS, (b) information provision, whereby the government informs the uninformed users about the existence and the characteristics of OSS, and (c) subsidy, whereby the government makes a payment to consumers if they adopt OSS. We show that mandated adoption and information provision may increase social welfare, but the subsidy always reduces it. When network externalities are added to the model, we show that mandated adoption and information provision may increase social welfare if they help the market to tip towards standardization. The web site www.opensource.org provides further details on the open source software movement     

Convex incentives in financial markets: an agent-based analysis

We investigate whether convex incentive contracts are a source of instability of financial markets as indicated by the results of a continuous double-auction asset market experiment performed by Holmen et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 40:179–194, 2014). We develop a model to replicate the setting of the experiment and perform an agent-based simulation where agents have linear or convex incentives. Extending the simulation by varying features of actual asset markets that were not studied in the experiment, our main results show that increasing the number of convex incentive contracts increases prices and volatility and decreases market liquidity, measured both as bid–ask spreads and volumes. We also observe that the influence of risk aversion on traders’ decisions decreases when there are convex contracts and that increasing the differences in initial wealth among the traders has similar effects as increasing number of convex incentive contracts.     

The design of monetary and fiscal policy: A global perspective

We study the emergence of multiple equilibria in models with capital and bonds under various monetary and fiscal policies. We show that the presence of capital is indeed another independent source of local and global multiplicities, even under active policies that yield local determinacy. We also show how a very similar mechanism generates multiplicities in models with bonds and distortionary taxation. We then explore the design of monetary policies that avoid multiple equilibria. We show that interest rate policies that respond to the output gap, while potentially a source of significant inefficiencies, may be effective in preventing multiple equilibria and costly oscillatory equilibrium dynamics.     

The t Copula and Related Copulas

The t copula and its properties are described with a focus on issues related to the dependence of extreme values. The Gaussian mixture representation of a multivariate t distribution is used as a starting point to construct two new copulas, the skewed t copula and the grouped t copula, which allow more heterogeneity in the modelling of dependent observations. Extreme value considerations are used to derive two further new copulas: the t extreme value copula is the limiting copula of componentwise maxima of t distributed random vectors; the t lower tail copula is the limiting copula of bivariate observations from a t distribution that are conditioned to lie below some joint threshold that is progressively lowered. Both these copulas may be approximated for practical purposes by simpler, better-known copulas, these being the Gumbel and Clayton copulas respectively.     

Supply chain finance: From traditional to supply chain credit rating

Traditional credit rating models, adopted by financial institutions to assess the credit risk of a company, adopt a purely financial perspective, and often fail to properly assess small and medium enterprises. On the other hand, buyers usually assess suppliers by means of comprehensive vendor ratings, considering a broad range of operational performance. This paper investigates whether financial and vendor ratings can be integrated into a supply chain credit rating model that jointly considers financial indicators of the supplier and its operational evaluation provided by buyers; the paper also investigates the benefits and the challenges of such a model for all the stakeholders involved (buyers, suppliers, financial institutions, and technology providers), adopting the lenses of the stakeholder theory. We adopted both multiple case studies and an iterative focus group, involving representatives from suppliers, buyers, financial institutions, and technology providers. The results confirm the potential value of such an integrated rating, mainly for strategic suppliers, showing the expected benefits for all stakeholders and highlighting the potential challenges to face.