Local banking and local economic growth in Italy: some panel evidence

This article provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level – the Italian ‘province’) in Italy. A comprehensive data set is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique with fixed effects is applied to a modified version of the so-called Barro regression in order to address the well-known econometric issues of reverse causality and estimation bias resulting from unobserved district-specific influences.     

Equity-settled share-based payments and their (strategic) use under asymmetric information

Share-based payments are of widespread use in today's economy. Consulting firms are increasingly accepting equity compensation for their services (particularly from startups) and many governments provide fiscal incentives to support this choice. Likewise, profit-sharing licensing is an on-trend business practice by innovative firms and patent holders when transferring their technology to interested adopters. This paper unveils strategic considerations according to which an agent/seller designs its optimal policy in regard to the equity share to request in exchange for its service, technology, or trademark. The model assumes a fringe of interested users/customers differentiated by both the support they need from the seller and the value of the underlying relationship; and also holding an informational disadvantage on their own type. Given the seller's cost configuration, equilibrium outcomes entail entering a profit-sharing relationship either with the high-type customers only or with all customers. Yet, in this case, equity-based payment claims are —for rent extraction purposes— common (i.e., not differentiated) across types.     

Earnouts: The real value of disagreement in mergers and acquisitions

Earnout agreements link part of the payment for an acquired company to its future performance. Despite their option-like features, they cannot be valued using vanilla option-pricing methods. Two peculiar sources of risk affect these contracts: Bidder default before the earnout expiration (default risk) and potential litigation associated with earnouts (litigation risk). We developed an option-pricing model that encompasses these sources of risk, showing that counterparty and litigation risk can have a remarkable impact on earnout values. Our model's relevance is further enhanced by recent accounting standards that require contingent payments to be valued at fair value.     

Relationship Lending and Credit Quality

We analyse whether relationship lending reduces borrowers’ probability of default and, if so, whether this beneficial effect also applies to borrowers who are more exposed to the economic downturn. By using unique, matched data of 43,000 firms and their lending institutions between 2008 and 2010, we document that the probability that a firm becomes distressed decreases if the creditor concentration is high and if the duration of bank-firm relationships is long. While these results appear to support the beneficial effect of relationship lending practices, we note that the organisational distance of banks also matters both as a determinant of loan distress and loan downgrading. The results are stronger for smaller firms.     

Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa

This article reviews trends in poverty, economic policies, andgrowth in a sample of African countries during the 1990s, drawingon the better household data now available. Experiences havevaried. Some countries have seen sharp drops in income poverty,whereas others have witnessed marked increases. In some countriesoverall economic growth has been pro-poor and in others not.But the aggregate numbers hide systematic distributional effects.Taking both macro and micro perspectives of growth and povertyin Africa, the article draws four key conclusions. First, economicpolicy reforms (improving macroeconomic balances and liberalizingmarkets) appear conducive to reducing poverty. Second, marketconnectedness is crucial to enable participation in the gainsfrom economic growth. Some regions and households by virtueof their remoteness were left behind when growth picked up.Third, education and access to land emerge as key private endowmentsto help households benefit from new economic opportunities.Finally, rainfall variations and ill health have profound effectson poverty outcomes, underscoring the significance of socialrisk management in poverty reduction strategies in Africa.