On the source of contrarian and momentum strategies in the Italian equity market

This paper investigates the source of momentum profits, while inferring the validity of the assumptions underlying rational and behavioural theories. Using a unique sample of securities listed in the Italian Stock Exchange from 1950 to 1995, we observe that buying better performing stocks in the previous 3-12 months and selling worse performing stocks over the same period yields significant profits in the short term (less than 1 year). Results also hold when conditioned upon different risk specifications. On the other hand, the continuation effect seems to significantly revert over a longer period. More importantly, in contrast with Conrad and Kaul [Rev. Financ. Stud. 11 (1998) 489], bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations show that momentum profits are more likely to be generated by stock returns time series properties rather than by their cross-sectional differences. While the overall findings cannot reject the market efficiency hypothesis, we argue that behavioural theory may be a possible “story” to interpret the continuation effect.     

Relationship Lending and Credit Quality

We analyse whether relationship lending reduces borrowers’ probability of default and, if so, whether this beneficial effect also applies to borrowers who are more exposed to the economic downturn. By using unique, matched data of 43,000 firms and their lending institutions between 2008 and 2010, we document that the probability that a firm becomes distressed decreases if the creditor concentration is high and if the duration of bank-firm relationships is long. While these results appear to support the beneficial effect of relationship lending practices, we note that the organisational distance of banks also matters both as a determinant of loan distress and loan downgrading. The results are stronger for smaller firms.     

Earnouts: The real value of disagreement in mergers and acquisitions

Earnout agreements link part of the payment for an acquired company to its future performance. Despite their option-like features, they cannot be valued using vanilla option-pricing methods. Two peculiar sources of risk affect these contracts: Bidder default before the earnout expiration (default risk) and potential litigation associated with earnouts (litigation risk). We developed an option-pricing model that encompasses these sources of risk, showing that counterparty and litigation risk can have a remarkable impact on earnout values. Our model's relevance is further enhanced by recent accounting standards that require contingent payments to be valued at fair value.     

Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression†

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale of the French banking crises of 1930–1 and their consequences have never been fully assessed quantitatively. The lack of banking regulation severely limited the availability of balance sheet data. Using a new dataset of individual balance sheets from more than 300 banks, this article shows that the crises were much more severe than previously thought, although they did not affect the main commercial banks. By reconstructing financial flows, this study shows that the fall in bank credit was mostly driven by a flight‐to‐safety by deposits, from banks to savings institutions and the central bank. The decrease in bank deposits due to bank runs was offset by an increase in deposits with savings institutions, with the central bank, and in cash hoarding, whereas the decrease in bank credit was not offset by an increase in loans from non‐bank financial institutions. In line with the gold standard mentality, cash deposited with savings institutions and the central bank was used to decrease marketable public debt and increase gold reserves, rather than pursuing countercyclical policies. Despite massive capital inflows and rising aggregate money supply, France suffered from a severe, persistent credit crunch.     

Exceptional performance of multinational suppliers: theory and evidence

Review of World Economics - This paper focuses on an unexamined area of trade—the behaviour of heterogeneous intermediate suppliers facing final producers of different ability and pursuing...     

Rhetorical manifestation of institutional transformation

The present study proposes an analysis process to compare and contrast different approaches to content analysis. Moving from previous findings (Righettini and Sbalchiero, ICPP—international conference on public policy, 2015), related to consumer protection in the annual speeches of Italian Presidents of AGCOM, delivered between 2000 and 2015, statistical analyses of textual data are applied on the same set of texts in order to compare and contrast results and evaluate the opportunity of integrating different approaches to enrich the results. This review of results resorts to topic based methods for classification of context units (Reinert, Les Cah l’Anal Donnees 8(2):187–198, 1983), text clustering and lexical correspondence analysis (Lebart et al., Exploring textual data, 1998) in a general framework of content analysis and “lexical worlds” exploration (Reinert, Lang Soc 66:5–39, 1993), i.e., the identification of main topics and words used by AGCOM Presidents to talk about consumer protection. Results confirm the strengths and opportunities of topics detection approach and shed light on how quantitative methods might become useful to political scientists when available policy documents increase in number and size. One methodological innovation of this article is that it supplements the use of word categories in traditional content analysis with an automated topics analysis which exceeds the problems of reliability, replicability, and inferential circularity.     

Mean–variance dominant trading strategies

The paper examines the relative importance of ten anomaly-based trading strategies. We employ Mean Variance spanning methodologies in a classical unconditional setting and a novel conditional setting. Fixed-weight optimal portfolios stemming from the unconditional methodology indicate that all the strategies are needed to enhance the mean–variance tradeoff. This conclusion is completely reversed when we allow for time-varying portfolio weights as a nonlinear function of lagged economic indicators. The overall results suggest that diversified anomaly-based holdings are of limited benefit to sophisticated investors who employ dynamic trading strategies.     

Reducing the mean supply delay of spare parts using lateral transshipments policies

Lateral transshipment has been studied lately as a promising policy for increasing the performances of multi-echelon spare parts inventory system. By lateral transshipment spare parts can be moved from one location with excess inventory to another location, at the same echelon, in shortage, with the aim of reducing supply delays of spare parts. This paper will examine the relative effectiveness of two lateral shipments approaches in reducing the mean supply delay (MSD) of a non-repairable item, with respect to a classical policy of no lateral shipments. A simulation model of a two echelon supply network has been implemented and an experiment has been performed by varying different parameters of the supply network, such as the number of warehouses (locations at the lower echelon), the supply lead time from the central depot, the spare parts demand uncertainty, and the size variability of the warehouses. Results show appreciable reductions of MSD when lateral shipments are allowed with respect to the classical policy, in almost every network configuration.     

Outsourcing versus integration at home or abroad and firm heterogeneity

This paper analyzes the location (at home or abroad) and the mode of organization (outsourcing versus integration) of intermediate inputs production, using data on a sample of Italian manufacturing companies and focusing on the role of firm heterogeneity. We find evidence of a productivity ordering where foreign integration is chosen by the most productive firms and domestic outsourcing is chosen by the least productive firms; firms with medium-high productivity choose domestic integration, firms with medium-low productivity choose foreign outsourcing.