Health and development∗

The linkage between development and health is clearly spelt out in the definition of primary health care by the World Health Organisation. There is a widespread and growing disillusionment with the traditional Western approach to health care which fails to meet the real demands of the Third World situation.

This paper looks briefly at conditions in the developing world and the strategy proposed by the W H O to attempt to meet the objective of health for all by the year 2000 and refers to the South African situation.     

On the difference between the keynesian,knightian and the ‘classical’ analysis of uncertainty and the development of a more general monetary theory

Summary In this article it is shown that Keynes concept of uncertainty is not identical with that of Knight, as is often argued. The identification of Keynesian with Knightian uncertainty has contributed to the neglect of an aspect of Keynesian uncertainty that is important in understanding the functioning of a monetary economy. Therefore, it is concluded that monetary theory can benefit from the development of an analytical apparatus that incorporates all aspects of Keynesian uncertainty.I am indebted to Mr. J. de Haan, Professor J.A. Kregel, Professor S.K. Kuipers, Professor J. Pen, Dr. J. Snippe and Mr. A. van Witteloostuijn for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. It goes without saying that they cannot be blamed for any remaining errors.     

Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.