Arbitrators’ characteristics and decision-making records,gender of arbitrators and grievants,and the presence of legal counsel as predictors of arbitral outcomes

Labor arbitration helps define employee and employer rights and responsibilities. Evidence indicates that the advocates at arbitration tend to concern themselves with issues unrelated to the facts of the case or to the rights and responsibilities of the parties involved. More specifically, before the hearing, management and union advocates often dwell on issues such as the importance of the arbitrators’ personal characteristics and their decision-making history, the likely effects of the gender of arbitrators and grievants, and whether the presence of legal counsel impacts the arbitral outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine whether these non-case-related factors actually can be associated with differing awards by arbitrators. This study may be the first in which the arbitrators’ decision-making history (award orientation) is a primary issue. Of all the issues studied, the arbitrator’s disciplinary award orientation is the only one with a consistent impact on arbitral outcomes. We conclude that the energy and resources expended by the advocates concerning non-case-related issues would be better spent in preparing their cases for arbitration and in examining the potential impact of arbitration on the rights and responsibilities of management and its employees.     

Profit maximisation vs. agency: an analysis of charitable giving by UK firms

The charitable giving of a large sample of publicly quoted UKfirms is analysed within a model that explores the profit maximisationand managerial utility enhancement motives for giving. The empiricalmethod draws a distinction between the decision to participatein giving and the determination of the amount of corporate contributions.Firm size and advertising intensity are found to be positivelyassociated with the probability of participation in giving.Stricter corporate governance and the rate of directors' remunerationare negatively related to the probability of participation.Among givers, the rate of giving is related positively to R&Dintensity, the rate of directors' remuneration, and corporateprofitability and negatively to firm indebtedness.     

The role of (non-)transparency in a currency crisis model

This paper extends the work by Morris and Shin (Am. Econom. Rev. 88 (1998) 587-597) where multiple equilibria in the self-fulfilling currency attack models can be reduced to a unique equilibrium when agents observe fundamentals privately with small errors. We find that under a more general specification with realistic parameters, noisy private observations are generally insufficient to prevent the multiplicity of equilibria. The pivotal role played by the transparency of fundamentals/policies in currency crisis is also examined. Surprisingly, transparency may trigger rather than eliminate currency crises when fundamentals are relatively healthy. Our results may be relevant to research in other coordination problems.     

A quantitative approach to stakeholder interests

In an age when the role, behaviour and performance of the firm are under greater scrutiny than ever before, it is important to pursue quantitative empirical research in the area of social auditing. Using data relating to one particular company, the various inputs and outputs attributable to the firm's different stakeholders, (shareholders, employees, consumers and the community) are examined and corresponding rates of return calculated. Considerable methodological and data problems arise and consequently the results need careful interpretation.     

OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

Causal ordering and ‘The bank lending channel’

The bank lending channel implies the Federal Reserve can influence real income by controlling the level of intermediated loans. Using the notion of causality developed by Simon (1953) and the causal order methodology developed by Hoover (1990), I test for an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. I find loans did cause real income; there is evidence that a bank lending channel did exist in the 1960s. The data appears to show, however, that by the early 1990s the bank lending channel was no longer operative. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inflation-Plus Targeting at the Reserve Bank of Australia

This article first outlines the dynamics of what appear to be increasingly prevalent cycles of asset price inflation in liberalised financial systems, as well as the difficulties entailed in successful monetary policy responses. The article then analyses the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy responses to recent rises in credit growth and asset price inflation in the property sector. The Bank's responses are characterized in terms of an inflation‐plus targeting framework which has subtly redefined the Bank's approach to inflation targeting to include vaguely defined factors such as mediumterm‘risks’, as well as extending the time frame of such risk assessment. The article explains why, for a variety of reasons, the Bank has been reticent to fully declare its hand.     

Power Politics and International Labor Standards

This paper analyzes how a country's commitment to labor standards is affected by the international political power they possess. Powerful countries may be less committed to actual enforcement of certain labor standards since they are unlikely to face significant threats of international sanctions regardless of their actions. The paper introduces an index of international power for 116 countries that is used to examine how power affects the extent to which countries enforce standards relating to freedom of association and collective bargaining. The evidence suggests that, even after controlling for differences in wealth, productivity, and market freedom, powerful countries are significantly less committed to the protection of labor standards than less powerful countries. We wish to thank participants at the International Atlantic Economic conference in Washington, D.C., October 10–13, 2002, the Western Economics Association International conference in Denver, 2003, as well as the numerous suggestions of anonymous referees. Special thanks to David Kucera for supplying us with his dataset.     

Input–Output Structural Decomposition Analysis: A Critical Appraisal

Over the past decade, input–output structural decomposition analysis (SDA) has developed into a major analytical tool. We review the development of SDA and its relationship to other methodologies. We present the fundamental principles of alternative approaches to deriving SDA estimating equations and explore the various decompositions of changes in IO tables. We also identify several complications and unresolved issues. Most importantly, we find that a rigorous grounding in economic theory is lacking for SDA, but we are able to offer some suggestions as to how it might be established.     

The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services,Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify. In this paper we use a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) to quantify the changes in ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and returns to landowners from land-use change in Minnesota from 1992 to 2001. We evaluate the impact of actual land-use change and a suite of alternative land-use change scenarios. We find a lack of concordance in the ranking of baseline and alternative land-use scenarios in terms of generation of private returns to landowners and net social benefits (private returns plus ecosystem service value). Returns to landowners are highest in a scenario with large-scale agricultural expansion. This scenario, however, generated the lowest net social benefits across all scenarios considered because of large losses in stored carbon and negative impacts on water quality. Further, this scenario resulted in the largest decline in habitat quality for general terrestrial biodiversity and forest songbirds. Our results illustrate the importance of taking ecosystem services into account in land-use and land-management decision-making and linking such decisions to incentives that accurately reflect social returns.