The development and appraisal of nuclear power. Part II. The role of technical change

The process of technology development is examined, the importance of learning-by-doing, economies of scale and standardization is assessed, and strategies for RD&D and technology transfer and diffusion are compared. A pragmatic view is adopted of what can be considered a product or a technology. As in Part I of this series, the nuclear power programmes of the U.S.A., Canada, France and F. R. G. are used to illustrate the arguments.     

Social exclusion and labour market transitions: a multi-state multi-spell analysis using the BHPS

In this empirical paper, we assess how social exclusion arises in the context of labour market transition behaviour. We estimate a multi-state multi-spell competing risks model and identify five states: high skilled employment, intermediate skilled employment, low skilled employment, unemployment and out-of-the-labour market. Using data from the first seven waves of the British Household Panel Survey, we show that a substantial number of workers were trapped in a vicious circle of low-skilled employment, unemployment and inactivity in the 1990s. Workers who are part of the so-called flexible workforce are more likely to suffer social exclusion.     

The elusive NHS consumer: 1948 to the NHS Plan

Since the creation of the National Health Service in 1948, patients have never been fully-fledged consumers of healthcare; they have never held personal economic power with which to express their needs and preferences to service providers. Nonetheless, the history of the NHS has demonstrated an ever-increasing policy interest in the needs of individual patients and in the responsiveness of services to these needs. Following the collapse of the postwar consensus which gave birth to the welfare state, successive governments have pledged to give priority to consumer needs, but have struggled to realise this priority in practice.Professional and state paternalism in defining patient needs and choices have endured. current policy emphasis on 'patient and public involvement' and 'partnership working' sustains a top-down bureaucratic approach but tempers practice with input from all stakeholders in local health economies. There is much to do to make the culture of the NHS genuinely responsive to consumer needs.     

The Modernization of UK Local Government: Markets,Managers, Monitors and Mixed Fortunes

Since 1997 UK central government has launched a bewildering array of new initiatives known collectively as the 'local government modernizing agenda' which represent an ambitious attempt to transform the performance and the politics of local authorities in the UK. The aim is to improve local services, enhance community governance and increase public confidence in the institutions of local government. Some of the key elements of this agenda, notably attempts to persuade authorities to make greater use of markets, to encourage strategic management techniques and the reliance on external monitoring, draw heavily upon the New Public Management and build directly upon previous reforms. Others, in particular the emergence of a more diversified approach to regulation of local government, signal a new and distinctive approach to public service improvement. The result is a combination of multiple drivers of change and paradoxical 'operating codes' which reflect both the politics of the modernizing agenda and our current lack of understanding about which approaches will prove most effective in enabling performance improvement in the public sector.     

Microsimulation of Business Performance

Microsimulation of business performance based on sample survey data is a relatively underdeveloped field, but its application in government economic policy formulation is potentially great since it can be used to measure the distributional effects of change rather than just average change. Techniques which account for the dynamic response of businesses to macro level price expectations have recently been developed (Kokic et al. , 1993). These allow individual level business performance to be forecast from sample survey data. In this paper we outline a general methodology for combining these forecasting techniques with Monte Carlo simulation in order to produce a microsimulation of business performance that accurately captures the true distributional characteristics of the underling survey data. Applying this methodology to Australian farm survey data, we show that these methods may be used to forecast the distribution of farm business production and performance within arbitrary subdomains of the surveyed population conditional on a given set of expected commodity price outcomes. The microsimulations reflect both the uncertainty due to climatic variation from one year to the next, which in the Australian context depends largely on geographic location, as well as the uncertainty of commodity prices.     

Boundary Spanning in Local Public Service Partnerships: Coaches,advocates or enforcers?

This paper analyses the role of senior civil servants who work directly with local public service partnerships in the UK. It finds that their activities are welcomed by local actors and can have a positive impact on partnership working. They add value by acting as coaches who bring new ideas and help to build trust among local agencies and as advocates through being an important channel of communication between partnerships and national government. However, they struggle to facilitate more joined up working among national government departments whose differentiated regulatory and funding procedures impede attempts to collaborate at a local level.     

A case study of short-sale constraints and limits to arbitrage

This paper uses a unique data set of trades in a unique pair of securities that enables the precise identification of individual broker activity and the trade direction of that activity. We find direct evidence that the imposition (removal) of short-sale constraints limits (generates) trading activity consistent with brokers exploiting apparent mispricing.     

International business cycles: What are the facts?

Modern business cycle theory involves developing models that explain stylized facts. For this strategy to be successful, these facts should be well established. In this paper, we focus on the stylized facts of international business cycles. We use the generalized method of moments and quarterly data from twenty industrialized countries to estimate and test hypotheses concerning pairwise cross-country correlations of macroeconomic aggregates. A remarkable common feature emerges: these correlations are mostly positive, not very high and of a similar order of magnitude. The most important discrepancy with the theory is the low cross-country correlation of consumption.     

Equilibrium compound distributions and stop-loss moments

A convolution representation is derived for the equilibrium or integrated tail distribution associated with a compound distribution. This result allows for the derivation of reliability properties of compound distributions, as well as an explicit analytic representation for the stop-loss premium, of interest in connection with insurance claims modelling. This result is extended to higher order equilibrium distributions, or equivalently to higher stop-loss moments. Special cases where the counting distribution is mixed Poisson or discrete phase-type are considered in some detail. An approach to handle more general counting distributions is also outlined.