The Trade and Welfare Effects of State Trading in China with Reference to COFCO

The use of state trading to manage imports and exports has been a long‐standing feature of China’s agricultural trade regime. While the use of state trading was modified by China’s accession to the WTO, state trading still dominates for some commodities, even though there have been recent attempts to diminish its importance. In this paper, we analyse the potential trade distorting effect of COFCO on market access and export competition by drawing on some recent research on the impact of STEs on agricultural trade. By using a calibrated model of China’s imports of wheat and exports of maize, we are able to quantify the size of the trade distortions.     

On the Rate of Convergence of Discrete‐Time Contingent Claims

This paper characterizes the rate of convergence of discrete‐time multinomial option prices. We show that the rate of convergence depends on the smoothness of option payoff functions, and is much lower than commonly believed because option payoff functions are often of all‐or‐nothing type and are not continuously differentiable. To improve the accuracy, we propose two simple methods, an adjustment of the discrete‐time solution prior to maturity and smoothing of the payoff function, which yield solutions that converge to their continuous‐time limit at the maximum possible rate enjoyed by smooth payoff functions. We also propose an intuitive approach that systematically derives multinomial models by matching the moments of a normal distribution. A highly accurate trinomial model also is provided for interest rate derivatives. Numerical examples are carried out to show that the proposed methods yield fast and accurate results.     

How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?

This paper analyzes a simple model that captures the relationship between institutional quality, the shadow economy, and corruption. It shows that an improvement in institutional quality reduces the shadow economy and affects the corruption market. The exact relationship between corruption and institutional quality is, however, ambiguous and depends on the relative effectiveness of institutional quality in the shadow and corruption markets. The analytics also show that the shadow economy and corruption are substitutes. The predictions of the model are empirically tested and confirmed.     

Business Ethics on the Internet: 2

In a previous article the authors provided an introduction to using the internet as a resource for business ethics. In this sequel they look at newsgroups and chatrooms, and conclude by looking at the websites of Shell and a Shell critic on the controversial ethical aspects of its corporate policy and behaviour. Ben Fairweather is a Research Fellow, and Steve Dixon is Webmaster, at the Centre for Computing and Social Responsibility, De Montfort University, The Gateway, Leicester LEl 9BH, England (email: ccsr@dmu.ac.uk) (website http://www.ccsr.cms.dmu.ac.uk/).     

Analyst following and count-data econometrics

This paper reexamines the determinants of the number of analysts following a firm using econometric models based on count distributions. We replicate Bhushan's (1989) analyst-following study to demonstrate the effects of using count-data econometrics, in lieu of OLS, in studying phenomena where the dependent variable ranges among nonnegative integers. In contrast with the original paper, our findings indicate the number of institutional investors is inversely related with analyst following. We also provide econometric evidence to support the preferred use of the negative binomial model in estimating cross-sectional, analyst-following regressions.     

Predicting mispricing of initial public offerings

This article investigates the ability of neural network models to predict mispricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). The aim is to improve the modest explanatory power of existing models that are based on the theory of asymmetrically informed economic agents surrounding post‐issue market value of IPOs. This study develops and compares linear regression and neural network models. The results show that modelling variable interactions and non‐linearity allows a potentially fruitful approach for stagging in IPOs. Neural networks have been criticized for being a black box; however, this paper shows that, by using sensitivity analysis, neural networks can provide a reasonable explanation of their predictive behaviour and direction of association between variables. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing Benefits from Department of Health and National Health Service Research & Development

Public services in the UK are increasingly expected to account for their outputs and performance. This article describes a retrospective evaluation of the benefits from the R&D funded by a regional office of the NHS Executive. The methods adopted enabled the various elements of the region's R&D portfolio to be examined and provided a basis for the development of a plan for regular monitoring. The proposals for implementation are now also feeding into a debate as to how health services R&D might best be monitored nationally in a way that is compatible with the norms and practices of research in other contexts.     

Optimal Smoothing of Profit Via Overhead Allocation

Income smoothing, as defined in Statistical Activity Cost Theory (SACT), is the rational statistical adjustment of periodic accounting earnings to reduce their time volatility around average long-term profit per period. This article demonstrates how overhead cost allocations can be applied to smooth accounting earnings optimally in accordance with this definition. Such an approach parallels earlier work, such as that by Lane and Willett (1997 , 1999 ), in which a depreciation formula was derived and applied for this purpose. In particular, it is shown that, to realize an income smoothing effect in profit making firms, the usual optimal strategy is to over-allocate costs, giving support to the accounting principle of conservatism.