Leveraged Acquisitions and the Market for Corporate Control

What is the function of the market for corporate control? Mike Wright and two colleagues outline the advantages of an active market in corporate control and review the consequences of leveraged buyouts.     

Britain,EMU and the European economy

In January 1999, 11 member countries of the European Union ‘irrevocably’ locked the foreign exchange values of their currencies to the euro, and they committed themselves to abandon their currencies in favour of the euro in 2002. As a result, these countries ceased to operate independent monetary policies. Monetary policy for the whole euro‐zone became the responsibility of the European Central Bank (ECB), whose primary objective is to maintain a low and stable rate of price inflation for the euro currency. The rules governing Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) were laid down in the treaty of Maastricht in 1992. As conditions for entry to EMU, the treaty specified ‘convergence criteria’ which consisted of upper limits for several macroeconomic aggregates including, notably, a 3 per cent maximum for the ratio of the public sector deficit to GDP and 60 per cent for the ratio of public debt to GDP.1 In February 1998 the 11 applicant countries submitted statistical analyses relating to their satisfaction of these conditions. Despite doubts as to whether some of them had strictly met the conditions, the European Commission deemed them all eligible, and the euro was launched.2 The British government, though more clearly eligible than most other EU countries on the basis of the convergence criteria, decided to defer its decision on entry. In this paper we consider the arguments for and against Economic and Monetary Union, and in particular whether it would be in Britain’s interest to join. We begin with a brief review of the state of the European economy and an analysis of the first year performance of the new Euro currency. 1 Upper limits were also set on the rate of inflation, at 1.5 percentage points above the average inflation rate of the three countries whose inflation was the lowest, and on long term interest rates, at 2 percentage points above the average of the rates prevailing in the three low inflation countries. An additional condition applied to exchange rate stability relative to the EU average for the two years prior to entry.
1 Notable cases were Belgium and Italy with debt to GDP ratios of 122.2 per cent and 121.6 per cent, respectively. Presumably, these countries were allowed membership under Article 104c(2) of the treaty which allows the debt to GDP ratio to be exceeded if ‘. . . the ratio is sufficiently diminishing and approaching 60 per cent at a satisfactory pace’. The reader is left to judge whether Belgium and Italy fell within the ‘spirit’ of this article.
     

Key lessons learned from recent experience with Flexible Transport Services

Many local authorities and public transport operators throughout Europe are experimenting with or considering flexibly delivered public transport systems, mainly with a view to improving social inclusion in areas difficult to cover by conventional public transport. Many such initiatives have been in response to recent developments in transport telematics.The objective of this paper is to provide accessible and user friendly guidelines for the implementation or development of flexible services identifying key issues that need to be considered at a policy level. These follow an analysis of the provision of telematics-based flexible transport schemes showcasing examples of recent practical experience from the US and Europe.     

School Performance in Australia: Is There a Role for Quasi‐Markets?

Recent changes to the organisation of Australia's education system have raised the possibility of implementing wide‐ranging market reforms. In this article we discuss the scope for introducing reforms similar to the United Kingdom's ‘quasi‐market’ model. We discuss the role of school league tables in providing signals and incentives in a quasi‐market. Specifically, we compare a range of unadjusted and model‐based league tables of primary school performance in Queensland's public education system. These comparisons indicate that model‐based tables which account for socio‐economic status and student intake quality vary significantly from the unadjusted tables.     

Applications of a multivariate Hawkes process to joint modeling of sentiment and market return events

To investigate the complex interactions between market events and investor sentiment, we employ a multivariate Hawkes process to evaluate dynamic effects among four types of distinct events: positive returns, negative returns, positive sentiment, and negative sentiment. Using both intraday S&P 500 return data and Thomson Reuters News sentiment data from 2008 to 2014, we find: (a) self-excitation is strong for all four types of events at 15 min time scale; (b) there is a significant mutual-excitation between positive returns and positive sentiment and negative returns and negative sentiment; (c) decay of return events is almost twice as fast as sentiment events, which means market prices move faster than investor sentiment changes; (d) positive sentiment shocks tend to generate negative price jumps; and (e) the cross-excitation between positive and negative sentiments is stronger than their self-excitation. These findings provide further understanding of investor sentiment and its intricate interactions with market returns.     

The information content of disaggregated accounting profitability: operating activities versus financing activities

This paper reports three empirical findings on the differential information content of the components of accounting profitability. First, the paper finds that the shareholder profitability driven by operating activities has a stronger association with annual stock returns than the shareholder profitability driven by financing activities. The finding provides empirical support for the FASB Financial Statement Presentation project, and the project suggests disaggregating accounting profitability into operating and financing activities. Second, the paper finds that the sustainable portion of operating profitability has a stronger association with annual stock returns than the unsustainable portion. This finding contributes to the literature by extending the two popular methods of breaking down operating profitability (DuPont analysis and operating liability leverage) into sustainable versus unsustainable operating income. Penman (Financial statement analysis and security valuation. McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 2010) suggests disaggregating operating income into sustainable versus unsustainable operating income. Finally, the paper identifies the conditional persistence in Amir et al. (Rev Acc Stud 16:302–327, 2011) as one of the empirical attributes that affects the valuation usefulness of disaggregated accounting profitability. The conditional persistence measures the marginal contribution of disaggregated profitability to the persistence of aggregate profitability. This paper reports that the disaggregation is more useful in firms with significant differences in the conditional persistence of disaggregated components than in other firms. Test results are robust to controls for cross-sectional and time-series dependence in error terms.     

A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF HERDING AND UNIFRACTAL SCALING BEHAVIOUR

We model the financial market using a class of agent‐based models in which agents’ expectations are driven by heuristic forecasting rules (in contrast to the rational expectations models used in traditional theories of financial markets). We show that, within this framework, we can reproduce unifractal scaling with respect to three well‐known power laws relating (i) moments of the absolute price change to the time‐scale over which they are measured, (ii) magnitude of returns with respect to their probability and (iii) the autocorrelation of absolute returns with respect to lag. In contrast to previous studies, we systematically analyse all three power laws simultaneously using the same underlying model by making observations at different time‐scales and higher moments. We show that the first two scaling laws are remarkably robust to the time‐scale over which observations are made, irrespective of the model configuration. However, in contrast to previous studies, we show that herding may explain why long memory is observed at all frequencies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subsistence Response to Market Shocks

Microeconomic models posit that transaction costs isolate subsistence producers from output market shocks. We integrate microeconomic models of many heterogeneous households into a general equilibrium model and show that supply on subsistence farms may respond, in apparently perverse ways, to changes in output market prices. Price shocks in markets for staple goods are transmitted to subsistence producers through interactions in factor markets. In the case presented, a decrease in the market price of maize reduces wages and land rents, stimulating maize production by subsistence households; however, real incomes of subsistence households fall.     

Widening the ‘representation gap'? The implications of the ‘lobbying act’ for worker representation in the UK

The Transparency of Lobbying, Non‐Party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Act 2014 (the ‘Lobbying Act’) imposes tight restrictions on the campaigning and lobbying activities of civil society organisations in the UK, diminishing their capacity to represent the interests of working people and thus likely compounding the ‘representation gap’ within British workplaces. Along with austerity measures and employment law reforms, the legislation exemplifies the UK government's attempts to shift the balance of power further towards employers.     

Can Pre-recorded Evidence Raise Conviction Rates in Cases of Domestic Violence?

This paper explores the association between pre-recorded evidence and court outcomes in cases of domestic violence. Net of controls and time fixed effects, we find that cases with pre-recorded evidence are 3.4 percentage points more likely to result in a conviction. This increase occurs through three channels: a 5.6 percentage point increase in the probability of a conviction among (the one in four) cases that proceed to a defended hearing; a 2.4 percentage point increase in the probability of a guilty plea; and, a 2.4 percentage point decrease in the probability that the prosecution withdraws their case.