金融业的成功 从事金融服务的人同样能够在招牌行业取得新的成功

“一旦拥有了所有的技术和资源,那么是时候开设一家招牌商店了。“十年前.世纪招牌制作公司(美国新墨西哥,阿尔伯克基州)在圣菲的一个小村庄里进行了改造.并于1932年进行了一次大规模的整修,具备了一个完整的环保图形软件包,其中包括,建筑证明、房间号码牌、指路标志,以及其它的一些圈形设施等。     

A STATE‐LEVEL ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRY

This paper provides a comprehensive examination of asymmetry in US state‐level business cycles. We consider two different types of asymmetry in the adjustment process of a stationary time series: deepness and steepness. The data used in the study are a comparable set of state‐level coincident indexes (SCIs) developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Specifically, results from using the momentum‐threshold autoregressive model provide evidence of asymmetry in the growth rate of 23 SCIs as well as the equivalent national coincident index.     

Use of insertable cardiac monitors for the detection of atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke in the United States is cost-effective

Abstract

Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and a major marker of ischemic stroke risk. Early detection is crucial and, once diagnosed, anticoagulation therapy can be initiated to reduce stroke risk. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of employing an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM), BIOMONITOR, for the detection of AF compared to standard of care (SoC) ECG and Holter monitoring in patients with cryptogenic stroke, that is, stroke of unknown origin and where paroxysmal, silent AF is suspected.

Materials and methods: A Markov model was developed which consisted of five main health states reflecting the potential lifetime evolution of the AF disease: post cryptogenic stroke (index event), subsequent mild, moderate and severe stroke, and death. Sub-states were included to track a patient’s AF diagnostic status and the use of antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. AF detection was assumed to result in a treatment switch from aspirin to anticoagulants, except among those with a history of major bleeding. Detection yield and accuracy, clinical actions and treatment effects were derived from the literature and validated by an expert clinician. All relevant costs from a US Medicare perspective were included.

Results and conclusions: An ICM-based strategy was associated with a reduction of 37 secondary ischemic strokes per 1000 patients monitored compared with SoC. Total per-patient costs with an ICM were higher (US$90,052 vs. US$85,157) although stroke-related costs were reduced. The use of an ICM was associated with a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$18,487 per life year gained compared with SoC and US$25,098 per quality-adjusted life year gained, below established willingness-to-pay thresholds. The conclusions were found to be robust over a range of input values. From a US Medicare perspective the use of a BIOMONITOR ICM represents a cost-effective diagnostic strategy for patients with cryptogenic stroke and suspected AF.     

Private Equity in the U.S.: Building a New Future

Despite the recent downturn, private equity firms still have an important role to play in the global economy. At the same time, many PE firms may need to rethink their strategies. Practices that have been worked in the past may not produce acceptable returns in a future, particularly given the current constraints on financing and leverage. One source of PE's comparative advantage, as demonstrated during the recent crisis, has been the ability of the best and most experienced firms to reorganize their portfolio companies when they get into financial trouble. But in addition to their financial management skills, specialized operating expertise has become more critical to success, and those PE firms that have not acquired it are especially likely to find that past success in raising capital is no guarantee of success in the future. The authors begin by providing a brief overview of the past three decades of global private equity to identify how the market arrived at its current position. Using the findings of academic research together with case studies and interviews with PE practitioners in the U.K., the authors suggest a number of building blocks for the future that reflect the considerable success of the most reputable and experienced PE firms in increasing the value of their portfolio companies.     

Beyond convenience: the future for independent food and grocery retailers in the UK

The UK's independent food and grocery retail sector's competitive advantage of 'convenience' has been eroded in recent years as major retailers increase opening hours and develop their own convenience trading formats. As a result, large numbers of independent retailers are closing. A UK-wide survey was undertaken to identify other sources of competitive advantages, and the changes needed to stop or reverse the decline in this sector. Exploratory semi-structured interviews led to the development of a questionnaire on six major issues affecting the sector. 'Snowball' sampling, using industry partners, provided 142 respondents. The provision of a 'social shopping experience' emerged as a key competitive advantage that could be developed. Improving vertical and horizontal trading alliances, and the wider use of information technology, provided other options.     

Agroindustrialization through institutional innovation Transaction costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the east-African highlands

Some small-holders are able to generate reliable and substantial income flows through small-scale dairy production for the local market; for others, a set of unique transaction costs hinders participation. Cooperative selling institutions are potential catalysts for mitigating these costs, stimulating entry into the market, and promoting growth in rural communities. Trends in cooperative organization in east-African dairy are evaluated. Empirical work focuses on alternative techniques for effecting participation among a representative sample of peri-urban milk producers in the Ethiopian highlands. The variables considered are a modern production practice (cross-bred cow use), a traditional production practice (indigenous-cow use), three intellectual-capital-forming variables (experience, education, and extension), and the provision of infrastructure (as measured by time to transport milk to market). A Tobit analysis of marketable surplus generates precise estimates of non-participants' 'distances' to market and their reservation levels of the covariates — measures of the inputs necessary to sustain and enhance the market. Policy implications focus on the availability of cross-bred stock and the level of market infrastructure, both of which have marked effects on participation, the velocity of transactions in the local community and, inevitably, the social returns to agroindustrialization.     

‘Never let a good crisis go to waste’: moral entrepreneurship,or the fine art of recycling evil into good

Moral entrepreneurship is the fine art of recycling evil into good by taking advantage of situations given or constructed as crises. It should be seen as the ultimate generalisation of the entrepreneurial spirit, whose peculiar excesses have always sat uneasily with homo oeconomicus as the constrained utility maximiser, an image that itself has come to be universalised. A task of this essay is to reconcile the two images in terms of what by the end I call ‘superutilitarianism’, which draws on the lore of both superheroes and utilitarianism. After briefly surveying the careers of three exemplars of the moral entrepreneur (Robert McNamara, George Soros and Jeffrey Sachs), I explore the motives of moral entrepreneurs in terms of their standing debt to society for having already caused unnecessary harm but which also now equips him with the skill set needed to do significant good. Such a mindset involves imagining oneself a vehicle of divine will, which would be a scary proposition had it not been long presumed by Christians touched by Calvin. In conclusion, I argue that moral entrepreneurship looks most palatable – and perhaps even attractive – if the world is ‘reversible’, in the sense that every crisis, however clumsily handled by the moral entrepreneur, causes people to distinguish more clearly the necessary from contingent features of their existence. This leads them to reconceptualise past damages as new opportunities to assert what really matters; hence, a ‘superutilitarian’ ethic that treats all suffering as less cost than investment in a greater sense of the good.     

The Poverty of Accounting Discourse

Competence-based learning and qualifications have been developed and progressively introduced into vocational and professional education and training within the United Kingdom over the past decade. This paper traces their development and history. The reasons for the development of the competence-based system and some of the main features of the NVQ system of qualifications are outlined. The paper ends with a review of the issues which remain to be fully addressed.     

Errata

Previous theoretical work suggests that it is appropriate to adjust the CAPM for information contained in analysts' earnings forecasts. This paper uses non-parametric statistical methods to test the relation between estimation risk and security returns. The evidence supports the theory that neglected firms earn abnormally high risk adjusted returns.