A money demand system for euro area M3

In order to assess the importance of monetary and financial developments for key macroeconomic variables in the euro area a money demand system for M3 is estimated adopting a structural cointegrating VAR approach. While maintaining a good statistical representation of the data, long-run relationships are based on economic theory. By using generalized response profiles the dynamics of the money demand system is investigated without any further identifying assumptions. Error bounds of the profiles are derived using bootstrap simulations.     

Matching using semiparametric propensity scores

This paper considers the application of semiparametric methods to estimate propensity scores or probabilities of program participation, which are central to certain program evaluation methods. To evaluate the practical benefits, we first conduct a Monte Carlo study. Second, we use data from the NSW experiment, CPS, and PSID. We compare treatment effect and evaluation bias estimates using propensity scores estimated from parametric logit, semiparametric single index, and semiparametric binary quantile regression models. Our results suggest that it is important to account for very general forms of heterogeneity in (semiparametric) estimation of the propensity score, particularly when the treatment effects vary in an unsystematic manner with the true propensity score.     

The robustness of the independent private value model in Bayesian mechanism design

Summary. In a Bayesian model of group decision-making, dependence among the agents' types has been shown to have a beneficial effect on the design of incentive compatible mechanisms that achieve the efficient choice associated with complete information. This effect is shown here to depend as much upon the use of large monetary transfers among the agents as it does upon dependence: if the transfers are bounded in magnitude, then nonexistence in the case of independence of an efficient, incentive compatible, ex ante budget-balanced and interim individually rational mechanism is robust to the introduction of a small amount of dependence among types. This robustness result supports the use of the simplifying assumption of independence in mechanism design. Received: October 28, 1996; revised version: May 28, 1997     

Microeconometric models of infrequently purchased goods: An application to household pork consumption

The double-hurdle and infrequency-of-purchase models are generalized with the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation in the dependent variable. The resulting specifications feature more flexible parameterization and error distributions than the untransformed models. Using the 1987–88 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey data on household pork consumption, a nonnested test suggests that the IHS double-hurdle model provides better characterization of the data-generating process than the IHS infrequency-of-purchase model but the elasticities derived from these models are similar. Own-price effects on the probability and level of consumption are negative and significant, but the elasticities are small. Income and cross-price effects are not significant. Household age composition, education, gender of meal planner, and race are among the demographic variables that affect consumption.     

The success of divestitures in merger enforcement: Evidence from the J&J-Pfizer transaction

Despite being a widely used tool in merger enforcement, there have been few studies of whether antitrust divestitures are successful. We help fill this void by conducting a study of the divestitures relating to Johnson & Johnson's $16.6 billion acquisition of Pfizer's consumer health division in 2006. Six brands were divested in this matter to alleviate antitrust concern. For three of the brands, their pre- and post-divestiture performances are similar, while the remainder underwent changes that do not appear to be divestiture related. Overall, the results are consistent with the view that the divestitures maintained the pre-transaction level of competition.     

Cost-effectiveness of currently recommended direct-acting antiviral treatments in patients infected with genotypes 1 or 4 hepatitis C virus in the US

Objective: This study compared the cost-effectiveness of direct-acting antiviral therapies currently recommended for treating genotypes (GT) 1 and 4 chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients in the US.

Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis of treatments for CHC from a US payer’s perspective over a lifelong time horizon was performed. A Markov model based on the natural history of CHC was used for a population that included treatment-naïve and -experienced patients. Treatment alternatives considered for GT1 included ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir?+?dasabuvir?±?ribavirin (3D?±?R), sofosbuvir?+?ledipasvir (SOF/LDV), sofosbuvir?+?simeprevir (SOF?+?SMV), simeprevir?+?pegylated interferon/ribavirin (SMV?+?PR) and no treatment (NT). For GT4 treatments, ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir?+?ribavirin (2D?+?R), SOF/LDV and NT were compared. Transition probabilities, utilities and costs were obtained from published literature. Outcomes included rates of compensated cirrhosis (CC), decompensated cirrhosis (DCC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related death (LrD), total costs, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs and QALYs were used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Results: In GT1 patients, 3D?±?R and SOF-containing regimens have similar long-term outcomes; 3D?±?R had the lowest lifetime risks of all liver disease outcomes: CC =?30.2%, DCC = 5.0?%, HCC = 6.8%, LT =?1.9% and LrD =?9.2%. In GT1 patients, 3D?±?R had the lowest cost and the highest QALYs. As a result, 3D?±?R dominated these treatment options. In GT4 patients, 2D?+?R had lower rates of liver morbidity and mortality, lower cost and more QALYs than SOF/LDV and NT.

Limitations: While the results are based on input values, which were obtained from a variety of heterogeneous sources—including clinical trials, the findings were robust across a plausible range of input values, as demonstrated in probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions: Among currently recommended treatments for GT1 and GT4 in the US, 3D?±?R (for GT1) and 2D?+?R (for GT4) have a favorable cost-effectiveness profile.     

ECONOMIC INTERACTIONS: CHINA VIS-A-VIS HONG KONG

Hong Kong's role has been integral to China's unprecedented economic growth, but privatization ranks first in importance. Another key factor is Beijing's putting economic reform before political reform. Giving democracy to a society in chaos likely makes matters worse. Hong Kong and China both have profited from their partnership. As China has opened up to allow transformation into a market economy, Hong Kong has provided informational impetus for change, a capitalist model to copy, and middleman functions for China to participate in outside-world goods and financial markets. The collapse of Communism in China and elsewhere has increased the supply of cheap labour perhaps by 2 billion. Manufacturing countries with expensive labour and high cost welfare programmes—such as those in the United States, Canada, and Europe—will have difficulty. Capitalists in these countries will do well by investing abroad but not in their own countries. Though wrong in detail, the factor price equalization theorem—that international movement of goods and international movement of factors of production are equivalent—basically is correct. If China continues moving toward privatisation and joining the international community, it will become fiercely competitive, and prospects will be bright for both China and Hong Kong. However, China's recent drift from capitalism clouds those prospects. Fundamentally, three kinds of rights systems exist: (i) a capitalist system, with well defined private property rights, protected by law, where control of resources is based on ownership; (ii) a hierarchical system, such as Communism, where control of resources is based on one's rank in the hierarchy; (iii) a system of corruption, where control of resources is based on bribes and patronage. China rapidly had been making a transition from the second system to the first but recently seems to have derailed into the third. In any case, Communism's collapse is one of the great events in human history. The hero of that event is Deng Xiaoping—not Gorbachev, nor Thatcher, nor Reagan. Hong Kong, by contributing significantly to China's capitalist movement, has led the Communist world to change.     

International transmission of monthly changes in equity values

Our purpose is to answer two questions pertinent to the international transmission of changes in equity values. First, do lead-lag relationships documented in short-horizon (daily) studies continue to hold in longer time (monthly) horizons? Second, does the lead-lag structure remain stable over time? The questions are answered by examining monthly equity returns for nine countries during the 1980s. We find evidence that is somewhat surprising—significant lead-lag relationships among some countries persist in monthly horizons, particularly during the first half of the 1980s. During the second half, the lead-lag relationships are substantially weaker. During the same period, we find that contemporaneous correlations across countries have largely increased, implying greater influence of worldwide factors in determining equity prices.