Dividend‐Rollover Effect and the Ad Hoc Black‐Scholes Model

One of the most widely used option‐valuation models among practitioners is the ad hoc Black‐Scholes (AHBS) model. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We carefully consider three dividend strategies (No dividend, Implied‐forward dividend, and Actual dividend) for the AHBS model to investigate their effect on pricing errors. We suggest a new dividend strategy, implied‐forward dividend, which incorporates expectational information on dividends embedded in option prices. We demonstrate that our implied‐forward dividend strategy produces more consistent estimates between in‐sample market and model option prices. More importantly our new implied‐forward dividend strategy makes more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts for one‐day or one‐week ahead prices. Second, we document that both a “Return‐volatility” Smile and a “Return‐pricing Error” Smile exist. From these return characteristics, we make two conclusions: (1) the return dependency of implied volatility is an important explanatory variable and should be controlled to reduce the pricing error of an AHBS model, and (2) it is important for the hedging horizon to be based on return size, that is, the larger the contemporaneous return, the more frequent an option issuer must rebalance the option's hedge. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:742‐772, 2012     

Peasant communes and factor markets in late nineteenth-century Russia

The peasant land commune was the emblematic institutional feature of agrarian Russian society before the Revolution of 1917. Economic historians have long blamed the commune for restricting household behavior in ways that contributed to Russia's economic “backwardness” by the late 19th century. Drawing on new household-level data collected from archival sources in Moscow province, this article provides the first microeconomic analysis of local factor markets and household behavior within the institutional context of the Russian peasant commune. The empirical evidence indicates that peasant households did have substantial flexibility when it came to allocating their land and labor holdings. In response to mortality shocks or lags in the communal adjustment of land, households engaged in land rentals and off-farm labor market transactions to improve upon suboptimal factor endowments. Although these findings do not imply that the resulting allocation of resources was fully efficient, they do illustrate how peasants made rational factor market transactions in a seemingly inhospitable institutional environment.     

Leading to Learn

“You don't see to draw, you draw to see.” And then Fred said, “It's just the same for leadership, you don't learn to lead, you lead to learn.” The arts can teach us to stay with our senses and not know and in that way to provide a balance to the dominance of the analytic approaches to our organizational worlds. There is an old saying that you can only manage what you can measure. The arts can help us to work with what we cannot measure and the way to do that is by leading to learn. The current article explores the qualitatively different way in which the arts teach us to apprehend the world and how that is central to leadership.     

Intentions to Report Questionable Acts: An Examination of the Influence of Anonymous Reporting Channel,Internal Audit Quality,and Setting

The Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002 requires audit committees of public companies’ boards of directors to install an anonymous reporting channel to assist in deterring and detecting accounting fraud and control weaknesses. While it is generally accepted that the availability of such a reporting channel may reduce the reporting cost of the observer of a questionable act, there is concern that the addition of such a channel may decrease the overall effectiveness compared to a system employing only non-anonymous reporting options. The rationale underlying this concern involves the would-be reporter’s likelihood of reporting, the seriousness with which the organization treats an anonymous report, and the organization’s ability to thoroughly follow-up the report. Thus, we explore the extent to which the availability of an anonymous reporting channel influences intended use of non-anonymous reporting channels. Further, in response to Sarbanes–Oxley and the environment of financial scandals that led to its passage, many firms are strengthening their internal audit departments, and providing them with greater independence from upper management’s direct control. Accordingly, our examination tests whether the intended use of the internal audit department as an internal reporting channel is greater when the internal audit department is of “high” versus “low” quality. Finally, the study investigates intended reporting behavior across three different cases (e.g., settings). Results show that the existence of an anonymous channel does reduce the likelihood of reporting to non-anonymous channels, that generally the internal audit department quality does not affect reporting to non-anonymous channels, and that case-setting affects the type of channel to be used. Implications from the study are discussed.     

Corporate hedging and input price risk

Input price variability is an important source of risk for corporations that process raw commodities. Models of optimal input hedging are developed in this paper based on the maximization of managerial expected utility. The relationship between hedging strategies and output decisions is examined to assess the impact of the ability to set output prices on futures market participation. As a firm's ability to set output prices diminishes in the short run, input futures positions increase although the optimal hedge ratio may either increase or decrease. For a perfectly competitive firm, however, shifts in output price caused by input price changes provide a natural cash market hedge of input price risk and reduce the firm's optimal input futures position.     

"带形容词"的民主:比较研究中的概念创新

近年来,世界各国民主化的趋势使得学者们必须面对两个具有潜在矛盾的目标:其一是建立一个能涵盖各个国家不同经验、具有多样性的民主概念;其二是在不扩大概念的基础上扩大对这一大类案例的分析。本文认为这种双重挑战导致了概念创新的加速,产生了几百种民主的亚类型———也就是“带形容词”的民主。本文对出现的三种重要创新类型的优势和弱点进行了探讨,这三种类型是:对民主定义的“精确化”;对与民主相关联的大概念进行转化;以及建立不同的亚类型。鉴于这些重新定义民主概念的策略所产生的含义具有复杂的结构,我们显得老生常谈式的结论其实具有新的紧迫含义:学者们必须通过对他们所使用的民主概念进行清楚的定义和说明来为自己的研究定位。     

The deterrent impact of police: An examination of a locally provided public service

This paper develops and empirically tests a model of crime deterrence in an urban area. There are two important departures from past efforts to study the impact of criminal sanctions. The first is that the provision of sanctions from the local public sector is modeled; this is accomplished by specifying the distributional goals of local government and by specifying the production of safety. The second departure is that actual crime and reported crime are differentiated theoretically and in the empirical work. An empirical test of the model, using a unique neighborhood data set, shows that police deter crime significantly; however, this deterrent impact cannot be demonstrated without the distinction between actual and reported crime.     

Welfare Effects of Technological Convergence in Processed Food Industries

We develop a monopolistic competition model to investigate effects of international technological convergence on factor rewards, output composition, and welfare. Comparative static analysis indicates technological convergence improves the follower's—but impairs the leader's—international competitiveness. The leader's welfare improves unambiguously; the follower's welfare depends on the relative strength of convergence's income and terms-of-trade effects. We use data from seventeen food industries in thirty countries, 1993–2001, to test these analytical predictions. Evidence of convergence is found in thirteen of seventeen industries. Convergence lifts followers' relative wages and global value-added shares. Followers benefit from convergence's positive income effect. Leaders benefit from higher terms of trade.