The Higher Earning in America: Are 529 Plans a Good Way to Save for College?

This article studies whether 529 plans are an effective way for most people to save for college. The 529 plans were created in 1996 to help low- and middle-income American families save for college. Since this time they have adopted more tax advantages and grown substantially as a result. While total balances in 529 plans now exceed $250 billion, less than 3.0 percent of households have a 529 plan. And the majority of 529 plan accounts are held by the wealthiest households. Low- and middle-income households receive little tax savings from investing in 529 plans, and some states count these plans against financial aid. Also, 529 plans are complicated, rules vary by state, and fund management fees tend to be high. Thus, 529 plans are not the panacea to college affordability.     

House arrest: the effects of underwater and low-equity mortgages on small business failure and mobility

This paper studies the effects of the recent housing crash on small business survival and household geographic mobility. Although a number of other works have studied these issues, our analysis differs from these because we do not focus only on underwater mortgages (less than 0% home equity), but also those slightly above water (0-10% equity). Homeowners with little or no equity face considerable constraints regarding moving, starting a business or keeping a current business open. They are more like underwater homeowners, but they differ enough to deserve a separate categorization in comparative studies, rather than being conflated with all other homeowners that have positive equity. We use the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances panel data for 2007 and 2009, which allows us to track the exact same households during this critical time in the housing crisis.     

Successful Leadership in Global Public Good Provision: Incorporating Behavioural Approaches

In the standard model of voluntary public good provision and other game theoretic models, climate-friendly leadership of a country is not successful: A unilateral increase of this country’s greenhouse gas abatement measures, i.e., contributions to the global public good of climate protection, will not lead to a positive reaction by the other countries but instead trigger a reduction of their abatement efforts and thus a crowding-out effect. In this paper it is shown how this undesired consequence need no longer occur when elements of behavioral economics are incorporated in the otherwise standard model of public good provision. In particular, strategic complementarities between the public good contribution of the leading country and those of the follower may result either if the follower has specific non-egoistic or other-regarding preferences or if the leader’s contribution positively affects the follower’s beliefs, i.e., his conjectural variations, about the leader’s behaviour.     

Some brief notes on the “unfinished business” of qualitative inquiry

The paper argues that there are a variety of implicit issues in qualitative inquiry that need to be addressed if the area is to develop in some normal science sense. This unfinished business is concerned with a deeper investigation of basic terms that are now simply taken for granted, such as theme and pattern. It also includes the need to develop rules which will assist in making and justifying how qualitative interpretations are made from the implicit processes of inference. Specific suggestions are made for accomplishing these issues.     

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper implements the technique suggested by Den Haan (J Monet Econ 46:3–30, 2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The lead/lag approach provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others, and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. This technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the USA and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries. These low correlations may indicate that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries, but they also may indicate that lagging sectors feature a different transmission mechanism of shocks.     

Symposium on Social Capital: Introduction

This symposium contains three papers that discuss aspects of social capital. Social capital has become a major focus of research in many social sciences. Its increased prominence in economics reflects a general increase in interest in questions that have traditionally been deemed sociological. Regardless of one's opinion of social capital per se , this broadening of questions addressed within economics has been very salutary.     

Comparing Sunspot Equilibrium And Lottery Equilibrium Allocations: The Finite Case*

Sunspot equilibrium and lottery equilibrium are two stochastic solution concepts for nonstochastic economies. We compare these concepts in a class of completely finite, (possibly) nonconvex exchange economies with perfect markets, which requires extending the lottery model to the finite case. Every equilibrium allocation of our lottery model is also a sunspot equilibrium allocation. The converse is almost always true. There are exceptions, however: For some economies, there exist sunspot equilibrium allocations with no lottery equilibrium counterpart.     

ACCOUNTING FOR HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: A PROTOTYPE SATELLITE ACCOUNT USING THE AMERICAN TIME USE SURVEY

This paper presents a satellite account where households are treated as production units. It extends previous work that treats consumer durables as investment and that values nonmarket household production activities such as cooking, cleaning, and childcare. Services from consumer durables and government capital related to household production are also valued. In constructing the updated accounts, this paper incorporates new time use data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the harmonized time use data from the Multinational Time Use Study (MTUS). This paper also discusses and incorporates recommendations made by the U.S. National Academies panel on nonmarket accounts.     

Bank loan portfolios and the Canadian monetary transmission mechanism

Abstract .  Following a monetary tightening, bank loans to consumers decrease. This is true for both mortgage and non-mortgage loans, and it is true for a tightening by the Bank of Canada that is, and is not, a response to a tightening by the Federal Reserve System. In contrast, business loans increase following a monetary tightening. The 'perverse' response of business loans cannot be explained by an increase in the demand for funds due to a reduction in real activity. These results are consistent with a change in bank portfolio behaviour in favour of business loans in response to a monetary tightening.