TESTS OF EQUAL FORECAST ACCURACY FOR OVERLAPPING MODELS

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite‐sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong (Econometrica 1989; 57 : 307–333). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out‐of‐sample version of the two‐step testing procedure recommended by Vuong but also show that an exact one‐step procedure is sometimes applicable. When the models are overlapping, we provide a simple‐to‐use fixed‐regressor wild bootstrap that can be used to conduct valid inference. Monte Carlo simulations generally support the theoretical results: the two‐step procedure is conservative, while the one‐step procedure can be accurately sized when appropriate. We conclude with an empirical application comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting US real gross domestic product growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Psychological safety climate and workplace bullying in Vietnam’s public sector

The bureaucratic and impersonal nature of public management can fertilize workplace bullying and risks for psychological health and safety. Psychological safety climate (PSC) is an important indicator to reduce psychological hazards. Yet, there have been few studies conducted to examine the existence of PSC in the public sector in non-Western economies. This study examined the implementation of PSC and its effects on 274 employees from six branches of a Vietnamese public sector organization. The results suggest that senior management in organizations should consider positive work conditions and an effective system of policies, procedures, and practices for the prevention of psychosocial hazards.     

User Fee Abolition and the Demand for Public Health Care

This research examines the effect of the abolition of user fees in South Africa, a policy implemented in 1994 for uninsured children under the age of six and the elderly uninsured, as well as pregnant and nursing mothers. The analysis focuses on the implementation of the policy and the use of curative public healthcare services by children following strict and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs. The estimates point to statistically insignificant average and local average policy effects, even though the policy appears to have been implemented reasonably effectively, albeit imperfectly. In other words, the policy did not, on average, affect the use of curative public healthcare, at least for those children who should have benefited from the policy.     

A Nietzschean re‐evaluation of values as a way of re‐imagining business ethics

Whereas a range of business and management scholars have argued that business is in an ethical crisis, Nietzsche makes it possible to see that it is ethics itself that is in crisis, and that only as the crisis in ethics is dealt with can ethics in specific areas such as business be addressed. Nihilism is the name that Nietzsche gives to the crisis in ethics. The failure to fully appreciate nihilism and its pervasiveness as the root cause of the problem, as evident in the perpetual quest to obliterate nihilism through the creation of ethical frameworks and foundations, has plunged business and ethics scholarship in the field, ever deeper in the quagmire of nihilism. In response to nihilism, Nietzsche offers a re‐evaluation of all values. To re‐evaluate all values means to accept nihilism and see it as a basis for questioning taken for granted assumptions that have supported the notion of ethics or values in order to re‐imagine an ethics which is responsive to the crisis of nihilism. The paper thus proposes that rather than trying to invent new ethics or ethical foundations, or figuring out “how” to be ethical, we need to turn our attention on the “why to be” of ethics.     

Learning and development expertise: an Australian analysis

Learning and development (L&D) practitioners draw on a distinctive range of knowledge, skills and techniques in their work. Over the years, there have been attempts to capture this range and identify typical L&D roles. The research presented here was undertaken to identify characteristic areas of expertise (AOEs) of L&D practice in Australia, and to collect data about roles and organizational settings in which these AOEs are deployed. The research was commissioned by the Australian Institute of Training and Development. Literature relating to L&D was consulted, and Australian L&D experts were interviewed to draft a list of L&D AOEs. Responses to a survey by 589 Australian L&D practitioners were used to appraise the model. A principal components analysis of perceptions of the importance of the different types of expertise revealed that practitioners tended to rate one of three ‘clusters’ as important to their work: a strategy and analysis cluster, a learning facilitation cluster and a design and systems cluster. This analysis raises the question of contemporary L&D roles with implications for strategic HRD policy and professional associations. The typology may be utilized to target professional L&D activities, and provides impetus for further research to investigate the internal relationships between cluster components.     

Research note: religious doctrine and its influence on the choice to gamble as a leisure pastime among African American Methodists

This research note examines the relationship between adherence to religious doctrine and participation in gambling as a leisure pastime. In the United States, recreational gambling is a common leisure pastime for many African Americans. Our ideals about the value of gambling are often shaped within families, based on their lived experience with recreational gambling and also within religious communities. Two doctrinal statements from the Methodist strand of Protestantism provide critical assessment of gambling as a leisure pastime. This case study examined African American Methodists’ perceptions about religious doctrine that addresses gambling; their choice to gamble despite their familiarity with the doctrinal position of the Church; and the perception of gambling as a sinful leisure pursuit. Religious doctrine may deter some adherents from participating in gambling as a leisure pursuit but not everyone. Many can be familiar with religious doctrine, may not agree with it and will proceed to gamble. Finally, even if gambling is perceived as a sinful leisure activity, it concurrently can be viewed as a ‘harmless’ vice.     

Selling Versus Leasing of Durable Goods: The Impact on Marketing Channels

While many durable products are sold through intermediaries, there is limited understanding of how channel performance is influenced by transactions involving durable goods in a competitive market. In particular, extant research shows that intermediaries can significantly impact the leasing versus selling policy of a monopolistic manufacturer. This article seeks to fill that gap by examining the selling versus leasing choice of duopolistic manufacturers in the context of decentralized channels. Our analysis demonstrates that in addition to the unique equilibrium of selling, a prisoner's dilemma may arise where both manufacturers are better off if they were to lease their products.     

Trading off learning and performance: Exploration and exploitation at work

Employees are increasingly given control over how they learn, and their choices for training are diverse and varied, yet employees must balance competing demands. On one hand, they are expected to be increasingly efficient in their current job duties – on the other hand, they are expected to develop new skills and competencies that enable them to adapt and respond to changing job demands. Drawing from the organizational learning literature, we propose a model of worker and work characteristics that inform choices between two mindsets related to learning at work. The first mindset is exploration, or the pursuit of learning outside one’s current knowledge domain; the second mindset is exploitation, the refinement/deepening of one’s existing knowledge stock focusing on the task at hand. We further propose that these strategic choices, or trade-offs, influence employee learning and performance in unique ways, with different implications for both routine and adaptive performance. Finally, we incorporate the notions of feedback loops and risk assessments that influence ongoing decisions between exploration and exploitation mindsets. Recommendations for future research and extensions of the theoretical model are also proposed.