Boekbesprekin

Utrecht, 5 September 1928.     

Repeated payment delinquency among young adults in the United States

There is concern in the United States about young adults falling behind financially due to the increased use of student loans and low wages. This study investigates payment delinquency as a measure of financial distress to better understand how young adults might be struggling. Personality traits are incorporated into the model to determine the extent to which behavioural factors are correlated with financial behaviors and if they predict a habit trend of payment delinquency. The 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a nationally representative longitudinal data set, is used in the study. A random effects probit model and a dynamic random effects probit model are used to examine late bill pay (harassed by bill collectors) and late rent or mortgage payments (more than 60 days late) over a period of 8 years (2007–2015). Results from the analysis indicate that payment delinquency in a previous period increases the likelihood of payment delinquency by 10 percentage points in a subsequent period. Conscientiousness decreases the likelihood by 2.1 percentage points, while neuroticism increases the likelihood by 1.6 percentage points.     

Unemployment and inflation in Ireland: 1926–2012

Since the 1970s, the overarching view in the literature has been that a Phillips curve relationship did not exist in Ireland prior to the 1979 exchange rate break with Sterling. It was argued that, as a small open economy, prices were determined externally. To test this relationship, we study the determination of inflation between 1926 and 2012, a longer sample period than any previously used. We find that the difference between unemployment and the NAIRU is a significant determinant of inflation both in the full sample and in the subsamples spanning the periods before and after the Sterling parity link.     

“Continuous” budgeting: Reconciling budget flexibility with budgetary control

This paper explores the role of budgeting in the context of the more flexible modes of management required in conditions of uncertainty. It contributes to the growing literature on the tensions between the need to meet specified financial targets, as expressed in budgets, and the need for more flexible and innovative forms of managing prompted by heightened market volatility and rapid rates of technological change. Drawing on case study evidence, the paper introduces the notion of “continuous budgeting” to highlight the ways in which one organization sought to reconcile these potentially conflicting objectives. By integrating different uses of budgeting with other management controls, the processes of “continuous budgeting” encouraged managers to use their discretion in operational matters when confronted by unexpected events. Consequently, it enabled managers to prioritise, as necessary, the revision of plans and reallocation of resources in order to meet wider strategic organizational objectives. As well as empowering managers, “continuous budgeting” also imposed strict accountabilities to ensure that managers remained committed to achieving their own and the organization’s financial targets. Thus far from being an obstacle, budgeting contributed effectively to both the flexibility and the financial discipline required for effective strategy implementation.     

Concurrent and disconnected change programmes: strategies in support of servitization and the implementation of business partnering

For many leading engineering companies, the integration of services into product offerings is seen to comprise an important shift in the underlying business model. This movement has been termed the ‘servitization of business’. Within this debate, however, scant attention has been given to the human resource (HR) implications of servitization. An exploratory case study illustrates the HR challenges associated with servitization and the way in which these interact with a concurrent change programme concerned with the implementation of ‘business partnering’. The findings highlight the emergent complexities resulting from these two change programmes being rolled out simultaneously. Although contested across different divisions, the shift to servitization continuously disrupts the implementation of business partnering with little alignment between the two espoused initiatives. Furthermore, the rate of strategic change within the company in response to changing markets continuously acts to erode the coherence of the acclaimed move to business partnering. In consequence, the HR policies and practices struggle to maintain contact with the company's strategic direction.     

Riding the yield curve: a spanning analysis

The average return on long-term bonds exceeds the return on short-term bills by a large amount over short investment horizons. A riding-the-yield-curve investment strategy takes advantage of the higher returns on longer term bonds. This strategy involves the purchase of bonds with maturities longer than the investment horizon and the sale of these bonds, before they mature, at the end of the investment horizon. Most of the literature that evaluates this strategy compares only ex post average returns or Sharpe ratios. In this paper, we use spanning tests to provide formal statistical evidence on the benefits of investing in long bonds when the investment horizon is short. The results for both the United States and Canada indicate that an investor with a short horizon is better off investing in short-term debt instruments than long-term bonds.     

Evaluating alternative concepts of bus-based park and ride

Whilst it has been used since the 1960s, the UK government have promoted bus-based Park and Ride (P&R) particularly heavily over the last 20 years as a tool to deal with traffic congestion and air pollution. There has long since been a view however that P&R in its current guise may actually be exacerbating the problems of traffic congestion, fuel use and emissions instead of mitigating them. This paper aims to reconsider this proposition whilst also testing a range of alternative forms of car–bus interchange in the context of traffic reduction, drawing on evidence from a large survey of P&R users in Cambridge, UK. Overall the results suggest that while current P&R significantly increases the vehicle miles travelled by its users, some of the alternative models presented potentially offer considerable improvements.     

Government debt spillovers and creditworthiness in a federation

Estimates are presented for the impact of debt accumulation by the central and subcentral governments of a federation on the creditworthiness of other federation member governments. The estimates, calculated using an ordered probit model and Canadian provincial data, indicate that debt accumulation by the central government has reduced the creditworthiness of indebted provincial governments. Interprovincial debt accumulation effects are negative but relatively small, except for the debt of the largest province, which has a strong positive effect on the creditworthiness of the other provinces. These findings may have implications for other federations and associated jurisdictions, such as the European Union. JEL Classification: H63, F36
Les effets de retombée de la dette gouvernementale et la cote de crédit dans une fédération. On calcule l'impact de l'accumulation de la dette par les gouvernements fédéral et sub-fédéraux dans une fédération sur la cote de crédit des autres gouvernements de la fédération. Ces calibrations, à l'aide d'un modèle probit en utilisant les données provinciales canadiennes, montrent que l'accumulation de la dette par le gouvernement central a réduit la cote de crédit des gouvernements provinciaux endettés. Les effets trans-provinciaux de l'accumulation de la dette sont négatifs mais relativement faibles, sauf dans le cas de la province la plus grande, laquelle a un fort effet sur la cote de crédit des autres provinces. Ces résultats peuvent avoir des implications pour d'autres fédérations comme l'Union Européenne.