How Reliable Are Hog Futures as Forecasts?

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange hog futures contract was revamped in 1997 and it is one of the largest futures markets for a nonstorable commodity. The literature is divided on whether or not futures prices for nonstorables provide reliable forecasts of cash prices. We find that from 1998 to 2004, the hog futures market was an unbiased predictor of cash prices.     

Detection of collusion in government procurement auctions

Research on bidder collusion in procurement auctions is reasonably successful in unveiling the mechanisms of collusion among the bidders. But it is relatively weak in forwarding effective practical methods of collusion detection before the winner is declared, because they presuppose the knowledge of collusion in specific auctions. Past studies, however, point out the need for working with bid price-to-reserve price ratios rather than bid prices or winning bid prices, to be free from the problem of heteroscedasticity. They also draw an important inference that the set of collusive data are significantly different from the set of competitive data. On the basis of these basic facts, the current paper outlines a seven-step approach to collusion detection. The approach makes rudimentary statistical analysis of bid price-to-reserve price ratios for all the bidders. The analysis comprises tests of equality of means, medians and variance and tests of skewness, autocorrelation and normality of the ratios. It divides the ratios into two significantly different clusters. The cluster with the higher mean and variance values of the ratios corresponds to collusive bidding with the other cluster corresponding to competitive bidding. The paper proposes the construction of a process control chart to detect occurrence of collusion in an auction immediately after the price bids are opened. The approach is illustrated by applying it to data from procurement auctions for construction projects in a State Department of the Republic of India.     

GOS tree (Goal-Objective-Strategy tree) approach to strategic planning using a fuzzy-Delphi process: An application to the Indian Shrimp Industry

Setting long-term goals, specifying short-term objectives, and formulating strategies to achieve the objectives are the key elements in a strategic planning process. In this paper, we have used hierarchical relationships among these key elements to propose a Goal-Objective-Strategy (GOS) tree. We have proposed an algorithm to validate the structural relationship between two hierarchically adjacent elements of the GOS tree by getting their feasibility score rated in a five-point linguistic scale with the help of a Delphi questionnaire survey. The linguistic scores were then converted into fuzzy scores and consensus of Delphi experts' opinions on feasibility of various statements were derived mathematically using fuzzy aggregation algorithm. We have applied the GOS-tree-based approach as a tool for strategic planning for the Indian Shrimp Industry that has displayed a cyclic performance in the past and has shown signs of rejuvenation in recent times.     

Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

Determinants of the distance between sovereign credit ratings and sub-sovereign bond ratings: Evidence from emerging markets and developing economies

This article explores factors that affect the distance between sovereign credit ratings and the ratings assigned to new foreign-currency bonds issued by sub-sovereign entities (such as private non-financial corporations, financial firms, and public sector enterprises) in 47 emerging markets and developing economies. Censored and double-hurdle regression models are used to estimate the relative contributions of bond-level, issuer-level, and macroeconomic factors that determine this distance, separately for those rated at or below the sovereign rating and those rated above. For the three quarters or more of sub-sovereign bond ratings that are constrained by the sovereign rating ceiling, a Tobit regression model shows a smaller distance – suggesting stronger sovereign–corporate linkages – for public sector enterprises and financial firms relative to other firms. Riskier global financial conditions are also associated with sub-sovereign bonds being rated closer to the sovereign rating. For the small number of sub-sovereign bonds rated higher than the sovereign rating, a double-hurdle model shows that certain debt features – such as bonds backed by future-flow receivables or other collateral or structured as Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) – significantly raise the likelihood of piercing the sovereign rating ceiling and also increase the distance above the sovereign ceiling.     

REMOVING THE “VEIL OF IGNORANCE”: NONLINEARITIES IN EDUCATION EFFECTS ON GENDER WAGE INEQUALITIES

A large literature studies the mean gender wage gap in developing countries and finds mixed evidence about the role of education policies in closing gender earnings inequalities. We contribute to this literature by exploring two types of nonlinearities in wage earning regressions: (1) nonlinearities on the effects of education on expected earnings along the distribution of education endowments; and (2) heterogeneities on the contributions of education to the gender wage gap at different quantiles of the wage distribution. Our analyses provide new insights on how these nonlinear effects can be used to set up better targeted gender and development policies. (JEL I26, C14)     

Female,married and endorsing: integrating celebrity marital status,role congruence and credibility

In this study, we investigate the effect of marital status and perceived role congruence (RCN) of a female celebrity endorser on consumer attitudes incorporating the role of credibility in the Indian context. The research hypotheses were tested using a series of experimental designs. The main study had a 4 (Celebrity: Unmarried/Just Married/Married but Endorsing/Married and Comeback) × 2 (Product: Role Congruent/Role Incongruent) full factorial design. Non-student samples were used in this study. Major findings implied a significant effect of celebrity marital status, RCN and the interaction term on consumer attitudes. The three source credibility dimensions were found to have differential effects on consumer attitudes when they were included as moderators. This study finds evidence in support of diminishing effectiveness of female celebrities over time/marriage. In this study, we explored a new dimension of congruence (RCN) and found the same to influence consumer attitudes favourably towards the endorsed product.     

Intrahousehold moral hazard frictions and household poverty traps in rural India

We empirically study the role of assets held by women in the creation of household wealth using data from rural India. We design a streamlined model of intrahousehold project funding where moral hazard frictions between spouses and women's asset control are the main ingredients. As predicted by the model, the data show that household asset accumulation depends on women's asset control in a non-monotonic way. Results indicate no presence of multiple equilibrium poverty traps, but do show that exogenous negative shocks will trigger assets aggregation within households where both spouses are present. This resilience mechanism is, however, not found in female headed household as these households have a monotonic relationship between women's wealth control and asset creation. We thus argue that policies to support women's empowerment need to distinguish women based on their individual wealth levels and headship status to enhance household well-being in remote Indian communities.