Learning,diversification and the nature of risk

In many economic settings, faster learning is achievable only through greater exposure to risk. We study this conflict in the context of project choice, where a risk-averse agent must choose whether to invest in two projects of the same type (focus) or of different types (diversification). Focus enables faster learning across periods, but is riskier due to common type-specific shocks. Optimal choice involves balancing these two considerations. We show that focus is preferred for intermediate learning speeds, and that higher prior uncertainty may encourage focus. Thus, what matters for the focus-diversification choice is not only the level of risk, but also whether the risk is permanent or can be “learned away.” We are grateful to two anonymous referees, Serkan Bahceci, Steve Cecchetti, Adam Jaffe, Bojan Jovanovic, Kala Krishna, Blake LeBaron, Rachel McCulloch, Yana Rodgers, participants at the 2004 AEA-CSWEP Meetings and the 2003 North East Universities Development Conference, and seminar participants at Brandeis University for comments and suggestions.     

Is reversal of large stock‐price declines caused by overreaction or information asymmetry: Evidence from stock and option markets

The role of option markets is reexamined in the reversal process of stock prices following stock price declines of 10% or more. A matched pair of optionable and nonoptionable firms is randomly selected when their price declines by 10% or more on the same date. The authors examine the 1,443 and 1,018 matched pairs of New York Stock Exchange/American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations firms over the period from 1996 to 2004. It was found that the positive rebounds for nonoptionable firms are caused by an abnormal increase in bid–ask spread on and before the large price decline date. On the other hand, the bid–ask spreads for optionable firms decrease on and before the large price decline date. An abnormal increase in the open interest and volume in the option market on and before the large price decline date was also found. Overall, the results suggest that the stock‐price reversal neither is a result of overreaction nor can it be simply explained by the bid–ask bounce. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:348–376, 2009     

Distributing Start‐Up Equity: A Theoretical Foundation for an Emerging Practice

We use agency theory to model equity division in venture capital financing with three complementary value‐creation factors—the entrepreneur's effort, the venture capitalist's advising/monitoring service, and the investment amount. While considering that investors often base their funding decisions on gut feeling, even as they employ rational decision‐making processes, we derive closed‐form expressions for optimal ownership sharing. Our findings provide theoretical explanation to support the recent call for practitioners to allocate ownership equity based on the relative potential contributions of the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist to generate value for the new investment prospect.     

Discrete choice models of firms’ strategic decisions

This paper outlines the methods and applications related to the nascent area of empirical discrete games in marketing. Many key strategic decisions firms make involve discrete choices such as deciding the location of a new store, determining where in product space to position a product, or what options to offer in a service contract. These decisions are fairly complex and typically involve the consideration of a number of demand, cost, and competitive factors. What makes these discrete choices particularly interesting (and challenging to analyze) is that they are interrelated with the choices of other firms because firms take into account the actions of their competitors when making their own decisions. We describe the basic problem of dealing with interrelated discrete choices in a game-theoretic framework and present the various estimation methods available. A discussion of the existing applications and future research opportunities concludes the article.     

Factors influencing wealth creation from mergers and acquisitions: A meta-analysis

This study analyzes the empirical literature concerning the influence of various factors on shareholder wealth creation in mergers and acquisitions using a multivariate framework. Overall, results indicate that while the target firm's shareholders gain significantly from mergers and acquisitions, those of the bidding firm do not. Findings also indicate that the use of stock financing has a significant impact on the wealth of both the target and bidding firms' shareholders. The presence of multiple bidders and the type of acquisition influence the bidders' return, while regulatory changes and tender offers influence the targets' returns. The paper also provides a comparison of our findings with that of previous narrative reviews and discusses their implications from the viewpoint of managers and researchers.     

Investment decisions: The trade-off between economic and environmental objectives

While there are broader socio-political, psychological, and structural factors that influence investment decisions (see Harris et al., 2016), in line with the critical approach, this study provides an empirical insight into the notion that financialization, specifically the tendency to prioritise economic over environmental objectives, has a strong bearing on how managers view investment trade-off decisions in relation to sustainability issues. The study empirically investigates this notion by examining the investment trade–off preferences of Australian managers in relation to three decision attributes – economic outcomes (i.e. financial returns), environmental impact (i.e. carbon emissions) and stakeholder pressure to consider environmental issues. We use the discrete choice experimental method to quantify the trade-offs between the above mentioned three attributes. In addition, we also investigate the potential effect of three contingency factors on individual's preferences. Specifically, at the organisational level, we explore the effects of financial and environmental rewards and at the individual level, we explore the effect of environmental consciousness. In line with the financialization hypotheses our results indicate that managers prioritise financial returns over carbon emissions and stakeholder pressures with the preference for financial returns found to be positively associated with rewards for financial performance. However, in line with the pragmatic approach and despite the overall dominance of financial returns, there is evidence that manager's focus on financial returns can be influenced, with the preference for financial returns negatively associated with rewards for environmental performance and environmental consciousness. In addition, while stakeholder pressure was not found to be associated with any of the three contingency factors and, manager's emphasis on carbon emissions was not associated with financial rewards, manager's emphasis on carbon emissions was found to be positively associated with both rewards for environmental performance and environmental consciousness. Therefore, our findings suggest that corporate management have an important role to play, both in respect to the design of performance rewards systems and the recruitment of environmentally conscious managers, in order to promote the sustainability agenda.     

The influence of voluntarily disclosed qualitative information

We examine the voluntary disclosure of qualitative information about actions involving governmental agencies and managerial intentions or beliefs in R&D project announcements in The Wall Street Journal. Our analysis indicates that information regarding government approval and managerial intentions/beliefs voluntarily disclosed in R&D project announcements interacts with industry/firm variables to provide significant incremental explanatory power in both the innovation and commercialization stages of R&D projects. Our data also indicate that the biggest impact is from managerial intentions, especially an intent to increase market share when coupled with being a larger firm. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CDS and the Resolution of Financial Distress

The dramatic growth of Credit Default Swaps (CDS)—contracts that allow creditors to hedge their default exposure or take leveraged credit positions—threatens to complicate the resolution of financial distress in ways that existing reorganization methods and institutions have yet to adapt to. CDS contracts undermine a major premise that underlies current reorganization methods—namely, that the holder of legal rights has, and is motivated by, corresponding economic interests. Because hedging in the CDS markets immunizes creditors from the debtor's financial condition, they effectively separate their legal rights and economic interests. In this article, the authors discuss the challenges this separation poses for the resolution of distress both in and out of bankruptcy, and consider ways in which “on‐ground” realities may be reconciled with the legal structure that underlies the resolution of distress. At a minimum, disclosure of CDS positions in times of financial distress—along the lines of the disclosures presently required of equity investors under the Williams Act—are an essential first step toward a solution.