An Intelligent Distributed System for Strategic Decision Making

The decision-making process in strategic planning is often too complex to be handled by conventional methods. Strategic planning problems (building new plans, new product planning, etc.) belong to the class of problems called ill-structured by H. Simon. They involve a decomposition of the main problem into a set of subproblems, a reasoning process at the subproblem level, and then a coordinated and aggregated process to build a global solution. Because partial solutions are generated without having a complete view of the global objective, this type of decision-making process very often generates incoherent and contradictory hypotheses and actions. Therefore, the main problem is to find a way to achieve coherence and coordination among decisions made locally by different agents, at different levels.Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence, particularly in the field of multi-agent theory, offer great promises in modeling strategic planning processes. In this article we present a general framework called 'A Coherent Plan of Coordinated Actions (CPCA)' for building intelligent distributed strategic decision making systems which integrates advances in both distributed decision making and Distributed Artificial Intelligence. We then describe a multi-blackboard system, ARISTOTE, which is aimed at helping corporate managers address the feasibility and coherence of a plan of actions.     

Hidden risks of hedge accounting in financial institutions: A study of Franklin Savings Association

The hedge accounting standards for financial institutions stipulated in SFAS No. 80 impose ambiguous guidelines whose enforcement can produce detrimental effects on the financial condition of institutions. Combining these standards with the interpretive authority of regulatory agencies can subject institutions to regulatory risk-the risk of an adverse regulatory ruling resulting from disparate interpretations of the accounting standards. The accounting regulations specified in SFAS No. 80 permit financial institutions to defer derivative-contract losses over the life of the underlying asset or liability. If the hedge designation is misused, however, the capital position of the institution may potentially be misstated prior to maturity of the derivative contracts. Further, when a hedging program goes awry, the current hedge accounting standards may actually encourage the shift to what is actually a speculation program by permitting a larger asset base on which to “earn back” a portion of the hedging losses. Thus, institutional programs initially designed to mitigate interest-rate risk can instead become risk-increasing, separate profit centers. Events leading to the RTC conservatorship of Franklin Savings Association are used to illustrate the opportunities and regulatory threats inherent in hedge accounting. Subsequent analysis indicates that similar ordeals could be avoided by a clarification of hedge accounting standards, the consistent application of standards by regulators, or by increasing capital requirements for those institutions that use derivatives as separate profit centers as opposed to hedging risk exposures.     

A GPS data-based analysis of built environment influences on bicyclist route preferences

This study examines the effects of built environment features, including factors of land use and road network, on bicyclists' route preferences using the data from the city of Seattle. The bicycle routes are identified using a GPS dataset collected from a smartphone application named “CycleTracks.” The route choice set is generated using the labeling route approach, and the cost functions of route alternatives are based on principal component analyses. Then, two mixed logit models, focusing on random parameters and alternative-specific coefficients, respectively, are estimated to examine bicyclists' route choice. The major findings of this study are as follows: (1) the bicycle route choice involves the joint consideration of convenience, safety, and leisure; (2) most bicyclists prefer to cycle on shorter, flat, and well-planned bicycle facilities with slow road traffic; (3) some bicyclists prefer routes surrounded by mixed land use; (4) some bicyclists favor routes which are planted with street trees or installed with street lights; and (5) some bicyclists prefer routes along with city features. This analysis provides valuable insights into how well-planned land use and road network can facilitate efficient, safe, and enjoyable bicycling.     

Exploring a Measurement of Analytics Capabilities

Changes in the volume and velocity of data have led many organizations to consider assessing and improving analytics capabilities. The purpose of this research is to describe a methodology developed to assess organizations’ analytics capabilities and explore the empirical value of data collected using this methodology. The measurement for analytics capabilities was developed by IBM during 2009–11 marketing efforts. To assess the data’s empirical value, we investigate whether measurements of analytics capabilities are internally consistent, associated with decisions to invest in analytics software and hardware, and able to explain firm profitability. In analyzing consistency, we find a natural sequence in the development of analytics capabilities. Exploring decisions to invest in analytics, we discover that firms with higher levels of capabilities are more likely to invest, as are firms that are larger and located in more profitable industries. However, we find no relationship between analytics capabilities and firm profitability.     

Patent Breadth, Patent Life, and the Pace of Technological Progress

In active investment climates where firms sequentially improve each other's products, a patent can terminate either because it expires or because a non-infringing innovation displaces its product in the market. We define the length of time until one of these happens as the effective patent life, and show how it depends on patent breadth. We distinguish lagging breadth, which protects against imitation, from leading breadth, which protects against new improved products. We compare two types of patent policy with leading breadth: (1) patents are finite but very broad, so that the effective life of a patent coincides with its statutory life, and (2) patents are long but narrow, so that the effective life of a patent ends when a better product replaces it. The former policy improves the diffusion of new products, but the latter has lower R&D costs.     

Detecting jumps from Lévy jump diffusion processes

Recent asset-pricing models incorporate jump risk through Lévy processes in addition to diffusive risk. This paper studies how to detect stochastic arrivals of small and big Lévy jumps with new nonparametric tests. The tests allow for robust analysis of their separate characteristics and facilitate better estimation of return dynamics. Empirical evidence of both small and big jumps based on these tests suggests that models for individual equities and overall market indices require incorporating Lévy-type jumps. The evidence of small jumps also helps explain why jumps in the market index are uncorrelated with jumps in its component equities.     

The nature and extent of service user involvement in critical care research and quality improvement: A scoping review of the literature

The importance of involving patients and the public in health care research is globally recognized, but how best to do this in critical care is unclear. The aim of this first published review was to explore the extent and nature of evidence on service user involvement in critical care research and quality improvement. Using the scoping review framework described by Arksey and O'Malley ( 2005 ), a team of service user and critical care researchers searched eleven online databases, reviewed relevant web sites, conducted forward and backward citation searching and contacted subject experts. Extracted data were subjected to a narrative synthesis based on the objectives of the review. Findings from a broad range of evidence support that involvement is becoming more commonplace and that experiences are generally positive. Data extracted from 34 publications identify that involvement is most commonly reported at the level of consultation or participation in project teams, however, the extent to which involvement impacts on projects output remains unclear. Key barriers and facilitators relate to the challenge of recruiting a diverse group of service users, dealing with power hierarchies, being adaptable and effective consideration of the resource requirements. More research is required to identify the most effective methods to support the opportunity for involvement and more thorough reporting of service user involvement practices is strongly recommended.     

An analysis of trading strategies in eleven European stock markets

Abstract

In recent years, the validity of the weak form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been called into question as several studies have uncovered evidence that technical trading rules have predictive ability with respect to both developed and emerging stock market indices. This study analyses the forecasting power of 2 of the most popular trading rules using index data for a selection of 11 European stock markets over the January 1991 to December 2000 period. The findings indicate that the emerging markets included in this paper are informationally inefficient; these markets displayed some degree of predictability in their share returns, although the developed markets did not. Furthermore, the results point to large differences in the performance of the rules examined; while small size filters consistently outperformed the buy-and-hold strategy in the emerging markets examined even after the consideration of transaction costs, the performance of the moving average rules was erratic and varied dramatically from market to market.     

Health Belief Model: Evaluating Marketing Promotion in a Public Vaccination Program

National health objectives are driven to increase participation rates. Individual health decisions are determined by attitudes, behavior, lifestyles, and government policies. This research, therefore, examined not just the development and delivery of a message targeting individual voluntary behavior change, but the intention of changes in social structures that will facilitate individuals reaching their potential; thus the purpose of this article is to shed light on the uptake of the human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization using the health belief model (HBM). Research was conducted with the use of focus groups by drawing on the framework of the HBM. This research approach is conceptual by nature, based on the virtue of marketing promotion and on HBM literature. Though offering the vaccine free to the general public provides additional evidence to certain groups on the intention to act or uptake of the vaccine, awareness levels were found to be poor despite increased efforts by the government trying to promote this vaccine. There was evidence that social capital and trust can produce effective communication message strategies that reinforce social bonds. This article provides an interesting basis for further investigation; however, as implausible as it seems the article also contributes to the concept of perceived benefits and of self-efficacy.     

A Sword and a Shield: South Korea's Strategic Use of World Trade Organization Litigation

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has since its inception in 1995 produced a cohort of 108 “fully litigated” trade cases. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of this cohort of cases reveal that South Korea ranks first among all Asia Pacific nations in appearances as complainant. Similarly, Korea ranks first among the 13 most litigious WTO members in the relative frequency with which it converts WTO Consultation Requests to formal litigation. Furthermore, its litigation history reflects a strategy to employ the formal WTO litigation venue in the service of two key exports: steel and semiconductors. Through this strategy, Korea has challenged U.S. safeguard measures on steel and defended its own putative subsidization of semiconductor manufacturers from countervailing duties imposed by the United States, European Union, and Japan.