A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models*

This paper compares a number of structural and times-series models on the basis of their accuracy in forecasting the A ustralian-US dollar exchange rate out of sample. Purchasing power parity, forward exchange theory, static and dynamic specifications of both the flexible price and sticky price monetary models, and univariate ARIMA models are considered in the paper. Exchange rate forecasts are generated at horizons of one to four quarters. In contrast to overseas results which support the view that the exchange rate follows a random walk, several models in this study are found to generate forecasts superior to the random walk model.     

新时期西部农村贫困特征与反贫困对策

新时期西部农村反贫困,对于推进城乡统筹、和谐社会以及社会主义新农村建设具有特殊的重大战略意义。对大量的调查数据资料分析表明,新时期西部农村贫困除了人口数量大分布广之外,还呈现贫困程度深、边境性、民族性与脆弱生态环境空间分布高度一致性等新的特征。西部地区城乡统筹必须将农村反贫困问题纳入其要义之中。     

Registered nurses' perspectives on health care and the 2008 presidential election

As this historic presidential election draws near, what do RNs think of our nation's priorities? Which candidates do they think will be most effective in shaping our health care system and addressing the most pressing issues of our time? The results of this survey show that RNs do not identify overwhelmingly with one political ideology or party and, in fact, they closely resemble the public on these political dimensions. The data also show that RNs identify health care issues as the most important problem facing the nation. RNs who believe that it is the responsibility of the government to provide health insurance to those without it, have more confidence in the government to achieve this outcome, and are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans. The presidential election is expected to be highly contested and could be determined by a relatively small margin of votes and, thus, nurses should recognize their chances of influencing the outcome of the election. The data from this survey provide baseline information potentially useful to increasing the political influence of the nursing profession, informing other organizations about where they might align with nurses, and helping candidates and the political parties compete more effectively in seeking the support of roughly 3 million RN voters.     

A Comparative Study of the Benefits of Applying Target Cost Contracts Between South Australia and Hong Kong

This article aims to identify and analyze the key benefits of adopting Guaranteed Maximum Price and Target Cost Contracts (GMP/TCC) over and above the traditional lump‐sum contractual arrangement through an empirical questionnaire survey conducted in South Australia and compared with the findings in Hong Kong. The Mann‐Whitney U Test indicated differences in perception between the two groups of respondents on the majority of the identified benefits. The study has provided an in‐depth understanding of the perceived benefits of the GMP/TCC scheme, hence leading to a wider application of those alternative integrated procurement strategies in both regions for reference by the construction community at large.     

The costs of increased localization for a multiple-product food supply chain: Dairy in the United States

There is increased interest in greater localization of food supply chains but little evidence about the effects of localization on supply-chain costs. Assessing these effects is complex in multiple-product, multi-process supply chains such as the dairy industry. In this study, we develop a spatially-disaggregated transshipment model for the US dairy sector that minimizes total supply-chain costs, including assembly, processing, interplant transportation and final product distribution. We employ the cost-minimizing solution as benchmark to compare alternative scenarios of increased supply chain localization. Our results indicate: (1) short-run limits to increased localization, (2) modest impacts on overall supply-chain costs, and (3) large cost re-allocations across supply chain segments, regions and products. We find that increased localization reduces assembly costs while increase processing and distribution costs. Cost increases are larger in regions with smaller raw milk supplies and during the season when less raw milk is produced. Minimizing distances traveled by all dairy products results in tradeoffs across products in terms of cost and distance traveled. The relationship between increased localization and costs appears to be nonlinear.     

Measuring Achievement and Shortfall Improvements in a Consistent Way

In measuring improvements over time of bounded variables, one can focus on achievements or shortfalls. However, rankings of alternative social states in terms of achievements and shortfalls do not necessarily mirror one another. We characterize axiomatically different families of achievement and shortfall improvement indices, and present the necessary and sufficient conditions under which they rank social states in a consistent way. Empirical illustrations using child mortality data from South Africa suggest that consistency between achievement and shortfall improvements in standards of living is not only a matter of theoretical import but is also a problem that can be encountered in practice to a large extent.     

Entrepreneur location decisions across industries

In this paper we analyse whether entrepreneur location decisions differ across industries and identify the factors determining the choice of location between rural and urban environments. Firm location is based on a new taxonomy developed over the influential three dimensions of Hayter’s (1997) approach. The paper uses data from sample of one thousand Portuguese firms. We present a stylized theoretical model to determine how these new five dimensions influence firm’s location and test the model through a logistic regression. Our results show that that the location decisions depend on the sector of activity, type of area (urban vs. rural) and the characteristics of the entrepreneur. We find that companies engaged in knowledge intensive business services prefer to locate in urban areas. From an institutional point of view, firms prefer to locate in rural areas.     

Long-term trends in the reproduction of the population

The extent to which long-term demographic trends can be accurately estimated is examined. The impact of factors such as migration, family structure, marriage and divorce patterns, and age distribution is discussed. Differences between the concepts of zero population growth and a stable population growth rate are noted. The focus is on the USSR, and comparisons with other developed countries are included.