International parity relationships between Germany and the USA revisited: evidence from the post-DM period

In this study, we show the interrelation of the purchasing power parity and the uncovered interest rate parity between the US and Germany for the recent period running from 1999:01 to 2014:04. This study extends the literature by testing both hypotheses simultaneously in a multivariate ECM. This has the advantage that interactions between capital and goods markets can be considered simultaneously. Our finding of two long-run relationships between the variables shows that a disequilibrium in one of the two markets leads to a disequilibrium in the other. While analysing the reaction to cumulative shocks, we show that US variables have a greater impact on German variables than vice versa. Therefore, the rising importance of the euro and the increased integration of the European Union in the recent decade have not changed this relation.     

Modelling inflation shifts and persistence in Tunisia: perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach

This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and particularly following the onset of the Arab Spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country’s monetary policy. We focus on the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach, initially proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973). Our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the Tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks. We also discuss the policy implications of these results, which typically require policy-makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation.     

The effect of offshoring on knowledge flows in the US automobile industry

This paper examines the impact of financial constraints on innovation for established firms. We make use of a direct measure of the existence of financial constraints obtained thanks to a specific survey addressed to French established firms. This is a distinctive feature of this paper as most of previous studies had to rely on proxies (like the cash-flow sensitivity), which may be subject to interpretation problems. The probability to have innovative activities and the probability to face financial constraints are simultaneously estimated by a recursive bivariate probit model. Accounting for the endogeneity of the financial constraint variable, we find that financial constraints significantly reduce the likelihood that firms have innovative activities. The probability to encounter financial constraints is explained by firms’ ex ante financing structure and economic performances.     

Innovative Assets And Inter-Asset Linkages—A Resource-Based Approach To Innovation

The paper proposes a framework for analyzing assets and inter-asset linkages associated with technological innovation. The framework is consistent with a Penrosian view of the firm and draws on recent contributions from both the more general resource-based perspective and the innovation and technology perspective of the firm.

Three broad categories of firm assets are distinguished: tradeable resources, technical/functional capabilities and managerial competences. Assets for technological innovation are defined as resources, technical capabilities and managerial competences for developing new products and processes. A taxonomy of generic innovative assets is proposed that distinguishes four generic categories of innovative assets: Scientific research assets, process innovative assets, product innovative application assets and aesthetic design assets. Critical inter-asset linkages are analyzed in terms of inter-asset specificity. It is argued that high degrees of inter-asset specificity provide greater scope for innovation and make higher demands on the innovative assets and their coordination than low degrees of inter-asset specificity. It is moreover suggested that complementary assets not only play the role of assuring proper commercialization of given innovations; they may also play a critical role as a ‘focusing device’ for directing the innovative process.

Finally, some implications for strategy in innovative firms are indicated. Thus, the proposed inter-asset framework may help to specify the notion of core competences and provide a more differentiated perspective on innovation strategy and first-mover advantages.     

From economic stability to social order: The debate about business cycle theory in the 1920s and its relevance for the development of theories of social order by Lowe,Hayek and Eucken∗

Abstract

The concepts of Adolph Lowe, Friedrich A. Hayek and Walter Eucken play an important role in the discussion of an adequate theory of economic and social order. It is noteworthy that at the beginning of their academic careers, these three economists dealt primarily with questions of business cycle theory. As we will show, this is not coincidental, but can be explained by economic history and the history of theory. Furthermore, all three economists agree that establishing a comprehensive social order would provide the basis for economic stability, although each postulates a different relationship between liberty and order.     

The World Market for Labor and the World Market for Industrial Sites

At the center of the on-going debate about the U.S. Social Security system is the question of whether the way the system is financed can cope with the future challenges posed by the retiring Baby Boom generation. The "reformers" suggest changing the design of the system by moving to fully funded defined contribution retirement plans. Others argue that the so-called demographic problems are being used as an excuse to privatize the system. But both sides spend almost all of their energy and time figuring out the timing of insolvency of the system and the validity of the assumptions made in each forecast. In contrast, the present study closely examines the changing macroeconomic dynamics of the system since the 1960s. The analysis shows that undermining of the system is caused not by demographic changes or financing mechanisms but by low wages and medical inflation.     

Optimal versus adequate level of international reserves: evidence for Turkey

The determination of international reserve balance for emerging economies is part of the efforts to strengthen the immunity of these economies to crises. However, there is still evidence on crises even for the countries with large foreign reserves. It has usually been experienced that the countries with greatest need for reserves economize more than others on their holdings since they might underestimate the cost of crisis. In this study, the official international reserves of Turkey are tested against optimality and adequacy. During 1988–2002, the actual reserves fell short of both the optimal and the adequate levels. They are only optimal when the expected cumulative contraction is about 5.2% of real GDP under crisis. However, early evidence from emerging economies and Turkey show that crises hit more heavily. Hence, it is found that the current financial structure in Turkey such as the absence of capital controls and a highly dollarized banking system necessitates more foreign reserves for preventing any future economic and/or financial shocks.     

Politico-economic inequality and the comovement of government purchases

This paper explores the implications of economic and political inequality for the comovement of government purchases with macroeconomic fluctuations. We set up and compute a heterogeneous-agent neoclassical growth model, where households value government purchases which are financed by income taxes. A key feature of the model is a wealth bias in the political aggregation process. When calibrated to U.S. wealth inequality and exposed to aggregate productivity shocks, such a model is able to generate weaker positive comovement of government purchases than models with no political wealth bias. The wealth bias that matches the cross-sectional campaign contribution distribution by income is consistent with the mild positive comovement of government purchases in the aggregate data. We thus provide an empirically relevant example where economic and political heterogeneity matter for aggregate dynamics.     

Bayesian Inference in Spatial Sample Selection Models

In this study, we consider Bayesian methods for the estimation of a sample selection model with spatially correlated disturbance terms. We design a set of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on the method of data augmentation. The natural parameterization for the covariance structure of our model involves an unidentified parameter that complicates posterior analysis. The unidentified parameter – the variance of the disturbance term in the selection equation – is handled in different ways in these algorithms to achieve identification for other parameters. The Bayesian estimator based on these algorithms can account for the selection bias and the full covariance structure implied by the spatial correlation. We illustrate the implementation of these algorithms through a simulation study and an empirical application.