Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data

The information contained in a large panel dataset is used to date historical turning points and to forecast future ones. We estimate groups of series with similar time series dynamics and link the groups with a dynamic structure. The dynamic structure identifies a group of leading and a group of coincident series. Robust results across data vintages are obtained when series‐specific information is incorporated in the design of the prior group probability distribution. The forecast evaluation confirms that the Markov switching panel with dynamic structure performs well when compared to other specifications. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision parameters in global R&D management

This paper addresses the question of which variables have what kind of impact on the decision to locate new R&D facilities in countries different from the home country of a corporation. In the first section of the paper we demonstrate the complexity of this question by referring to empirical research, managerial statements and literature. We then develop a conceptual model for the location decision of international R&D activities. This is based on Porter's (1990) framework of the factors constituting the competitive advantage of nations. In the final section of this paper we show how such a model helps us to understand and also to explain a number of management issues related to global R&D activities.     

Industrial relations and organizational behaviour: a critical appraisal1

This paper is concerned with the growth and development of two fields of study which are customarily separated in both theory and practice. Those who specialize in one area, whether as students, teachers or research workers, are not necessarily familiar with, or required to learn, the state of knowledge in the other, although, as we shall show, there is a considerable commonality of interest. To some extent, this situation is an accident of history and the first part of this paper deals with the events and influences leading to the emergence of each field of study. In the second part, common strands and factors leading to the convergence of the two fields are considered. The third section examines the “state of the art” and evaluates current strengths and weaknesses. Finally, an appraisal is made of the direction of likely future trends.     

Gene-environment interactions and the complexity of human genetic diseases

In the assessment of mortality and morbidity risk, the ability of family history and genetic test results to predict the age of occurrence, severity, and long-term prognosis of 'genetic' diseases is important. An increasing number of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions have been demonstrated in a number of monogenic Mendelian diseases. These interactions can significantly modify the clinical presentation (disease phenotype) of diseases previously regarded purely as 'genetic.' As a result, 'genetic' diseases can be positioned in a continuum between classic Mendelian and complex disease where the extremes, pure genetic or solely non-genetic, do not exist. The position of any given disease in this continuum is defined by three components: the major gene(s) contributing to the phenotype, the variability added by modifier genes and the significance of environmental factors influencing the phenotype. As the predictive value of genetic test results can be significantly influenced by additional genetic and environmental risk factors, a better understanding of these factors may influence the quantification of mortality and morbidity risk.     

Development strategy for rural areas

In September 1973, the President of the World Bank, Robert S. McNamara, made a challenging address to the Governors of the Central Banks of the member states of the international Monetary Fund. The main subject in his speech was the problem of poverty particularly in rural areas of developing countries, and the design for a strategy for its abolition.     

Food in sub-Saharan Africa : Trends and policy challenges for the 1990s

The food situation in Africa can be expected to become increasingly serious as the end of the century approaches. The gap between domestic supply and food needs in rapidly widening. Yield-increasing technology becomes essential in view of land scarcity in high-potential areas and sustainability problems in marginal zones. The concern of governments for food self-sufficiency, however, must not divert attention from the primary objective of household food security, which is essentially a question of households' real income. Accelerated rural growth and improved rural health and sanitation services accessible to the poor are central elements for household food security improvement.     

Structural transformation in China and India: A note on macroeconomic policies

This paper explores macroeconomic policies that can sustain structural change in China and India. A two-sector open-economy model with endogenous productivity growth, demand driven output and income distribution as an important determinant of economic activity is calibrated to a 2000 SAM for China and a 1999/2000 SAM for India. Short-run analysis concerns temporary equilibria for output, productivity and employment growth rates in the formal sector. In the long-run, the model allows for multiple equilibria which can describe cases of (a) underdevelopment and structural heterogeneity or (b) sustained growth and development. Several simulation exercises are conducted. Specifically, we consider how changes in investment, wages, labor productivity trend and a depreciation of currency affect the macroeconomy and job creation in the formal sector.