Rising UI benefits over time

We re-examine a key result in the optimal UI literature that benefits should decline over time. We show that when the population is heterogeneous, Pareto-efficiency may call for multiple payment schedules, some with benefits that fall over time and some with benefits that rise over time.     

Why Do the Swiss Rent?

At less than 34%, Switzerland has the lowest home ownership rate in Western Europe. This may seem odd given the economic strength of the country. We use household survey data for five Swiss cantons to explore some possible reasons for this. We estimate a tenure choice equation that allows us to analyze the impacts of a number of key variables on the ownership rate. We pay particular attention to the relative cost of owning and renting, which is a function of house prices, rents, and the user cost of owning. The latter is a function of income tax policy and expected house price inflation, among other things. We also measure mortgage underwriting criteria and consider rent control and other policies affecting rental housing. By simulating a number of hypothetical changes to taxation and other policies, underwriting criteria, and price levels, we assess the importance of these variables in explaining the ownership rate. We conclude that high house prices—relative to household incomes and wealth—and the tax on imputed rent are the most important causes of Switzerland’s low ownership rate.     

Comparing Firm Failure Predictions Between Logit,KMV, and ZPP Models: Evidence from Taiwan’s Electronics Industry

This paper applies the Taiwan electronics industry data to detect the discriminatory powers of Logit, KMV, and zero-price probability (ZPP) models that represent respectively the regressive fitting model, the option-based pricing model, and the GARCH time series simulation model. In our circumstances, according to cumulative accuracy profile, receiver operating characteristic, and even Brier score, the KMV performs the worst. The disadvantages for KMV are that the equity market exists some nonlinear characteristics, the unknown market value of asset affected by the change of capital structure is not exogenous, and the failure point is difficult to be estimated correctly. Besides, KMV is however too simple to model the fluctuation of the equity value as the GARCH does. On the other hand, the Logit performs above average. To preclude over-fitting and keep model parsimonious, two significant factors are extracted from as many as forty financial variables for the logistic regression on binary failure data. The result of Logit training has perfect discrimination. However, for the post-sample data, the fitting to categorical but not ordinal data makes Logit have the divergent failure predicted probabilities and highest Briser Score. In practical, ZPP GARCHNorm uses just equity value to predict firm failure but it performs remarkably well supposing that downward price trend or volatility persistence in stock price changes is appropriately caught. It implies that the distorted signals such as overreaction of traders and insider trading would definitely impair the ZPP GARCHNorm. Nevertheless, the larger type I error than type II error in all models indicates that the prediction of non-failed firms should be more examined further than that of failed firms.     

Efficiency of Microfinance Institutions: A Data Envelopment Analysis

This study examines the cost efficiency of 39 microfinance institutions across Africa, Asia and the Latin America using non-parametric data envelopment analysis. Our findings show non-governmental microfinance institutions particularly; under production approach, are the most efficient and this result is consistent with their fulfillment of dual objectives: alleviating poverty and simultaneously achieving financial sustainability. However, bank-microfinance institutions also outperform in the measure of efficiency under intermediation approach. This result reflects that banks are the financial intermediaries and have access to local capital market. It may be possible that bank-microfinance institutions may outperform the non-governmental microfinance institutions in the long run.     

Die niederländische Gesundheitsreform 2006 – Vorbild für eine weitere Reform des Krankenversicherungswesens in Deutschland?

The health sector of many European countries has been subject of a profound process of change for years. Since the federal elections of 2009 a discussion on the direction of the German health insurance system has emerged. In this context, German neighboring countries like Switzerland or the Netherlands are considered due to their changes in health policy for decades. This work deals with the effects of the recent Dutch health care reform. Due to the combination of the two elements “Bürgerversicherung” and “Kopfpauschale”, it serves as a possible model for further reform in the German health system since its introduction in 2006. Special attention was paid to the consolidation of statutory and private insurance in a general citizens insurance in the Netherlands “three-pillar model”. Because of the medium-term time horizon, financial impacts on state and private households and changes in competition between insured individuals, insurers and providers could be analysed. Especially, positive effects in terms of increasing competition and reducing the two-tier health care became apparent.     

Das Direktanspruchsstatut nach dem EuGH-Urteil „Odenbreit“

This Article deals with the impact of the ECJ’s decision in the case “Odenbreit” in which it allowed the injured person—in the concrete case injured in a car accident—to sue the liability insurer of the tortfeaser, both domiciled in another Member State, by means of the direct action, in the Member State of his or her own domicile. As a consequence, the court situated at the domicile of the injured person has to apply foreign law, which brings about some disadvantages to the injured person. The application of the lex fori, however, enjoys several advantages. The analysis shows to what extent the application of the lex fori would be possible de lege lata and de lege ferenda.     

Can small investors exploit the momentum effect?

This study uses UK data and investigates whether small investors can exploit the continuation effect in share prices. Individual traders are not in a financial position to buy and sell short hundreds of firms, as suggested by existing academic research, and thus this study uses extreme performance companies to implement the strategy. We find that strong momentum gains appear when extreme winners and losers are employed. These returns remain strong even after considering the transaction costs of implementing such strategies, including commissions, stamp duty, selling-short costs, and bid-ask spread. Overall, we show that a relatively large number of small investors can enjoy momentum gains, providing some evidence against stock market efficiency.     

Loan Market Competition and Bank Risk-Taking

Recent literature (Boyd and De Nicoló, J Finance 60:1329–1343, 2005) has argued that competition in the loan market lowers bank risk by reducing the risk-taking incentives of borrowers. Using a model where competition arises from falling switching costs for entrepreneurs, we show that the impact of loan market competition on banks is reversed if banks can adjust their loan portfolios. The reason is that when borrowers become safer, banks want to offset the effect on their balance sheet and switch to higher-risk lending. They even overcompensate the effect of safer borrowers because loan market competition erodes their franchise values and thus increases their risk-taking incentives.     

Discussion of “decentralized capacity management and internal pricing”

Dutta and Reichelstein (2010) study the role of transfer pricing and organizational choice in providing incentives for efficient decisions on the acquisition and subsequent reallocation of capacity within decentralized firms. Their analysis suggests that transfer prices based on the historical cost of capacity facilitate the efficient allocation of resources. They also find that symmetric responsibility center structures are generally better suited for providing efficient investment incentives than hybrid organizations. An important condition for the derivation of the two results is the linearity of the shadow prices of capacity. If shadow prices are nonlinear, transfer prices should be below (above) the historical cost of capacity in order to counteract the managers’ incentives to underinvest (overinvest). Because profit center organizations can use transfer prices for mitigating the inefficiency caused by nonlinear shadow prices, they offer a natural advantage over pure investment center organizations in implementing efficient capacity decisions. Overall, these observations suggest that the curvature of profit functions is an important factor in determining the suitable instruments for decentralized capacity management.