Understanding tourists’ leisure expenditure at the destination: a social network analysis

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to identify spending patterns of tourists in relation to the leisure activities performed throughout their day-by-day stay at the destination. Using the methodology of social network analysis (SNA), a tourists–activities bipartite network was identified following a pattern known as core–periphery. The effect of this structure (including typology, number, and timing of performing the activities) on tourism expenditure is analysed using a multiple regression model, to which were added different sociodemographic variables and other variables related to travel. In order to better understand the portfolio of activities, four examples of networks are studied and visually represented. This study reveals that through SNA between tourists and activities, we can study the behaviour of tourists in a novel way.     

Using early concept narratives to collect valid customer input about breakthrough technologies: The effect of application visualization on transportation

The value of early customer input has long been recognized by companies. However, especially when breakthrough technologies are involved, more insight in valuable methods for collecting early customer input is needed. In this paper, we propose a method to evaluate a breakthrough technology with customers. First, a creative process should point out applications of the breakthrough technology. Applications allow customers to imagine the benefits of the technology behind it. By using early concept narratives, typically scenarios of somebody using and interacting with the application, this imagination process is enhanced. When no prototypes are available yet, it appears that narratives and visuals allow customers to really “see” the new world of the application, a process called transportation, which is a mix of imagery, feelings, and attention. In an experiment in which we make use of a case of an application of a breakthrough technology, we provide empirical support for our claim that early concept narratives could be a valuable tool to get valid customer reactions. Furthermore, we show which kind of visual format the applications should have in order to optimize transportation. The results of this study will support decision making about how to pursue breakthrough application evaluations early in the product development process.     

On Long-term Forecasting of Social Security: A Robustness Analysis

In this paper we present a macro-economic demographic growth modelhaving a special focus on social security. It is designed to study the variability of responses of the system in presence of risks and uncertainties. Here we analyze the robustness of the model towards uncertainties in parameterspecifications, introduced by ARCH-M models with the incorporation ofintervention processes. The parameters varied are labor force participationrates (one of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policydebate), and the parameters of the production function (the key source ofuncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysisfocuses on two variables: assets of the private pension system and thebalance of the public `Pay As You Go' pension system. Special attentionis given to convergence properties of the macro-economic model.     

The anatomy of returns from moving average trading rules in the Russian stock market

This paper examines the profitability of index trading strategies that are based on dual moving average crossover (DMAC) rules in the Russian stock market over the 2003–2012 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis (TA) literature by comparing for the first time in emerging markets the relative performance of individual stocks’ trading portfolios with that of trading strategies for the index that consists of the same stocks (i.e., the most liquid stocks of the Moscow Exchange). The results show that the best trading strategies of the in-sample period can outperform buy-and-hold strategy during the subsequent out-of-sample period, although with low statistical significance. In addition, we document the benefits of using DMAC combinations that are much longer than those employed in previous TA literature. Moreover, the decomposition of the full-sample-period performance into separate bull- and bear-period performances shows that the outperformance of the best past index trading strategies over is mostly attributable to the fact that they managed to stay mostly out of the stock market during a dramatic crash caused by the global financial crisis.     

Is Russian Energy Policy towards the EU Only about Geopolitics? The Case of the Third Liberalisation Package

Russian external energy policy is frequently described as geopolitical (as opposed to EU energy policy, which is often characterised as market-based). This article reviews geopolitical and market approaches in existing studies and identifies paradigmatic and instrumental levels in each of them. It then proceeds to demonstrate that although the geopolitical paradigm dominates in Russia, Russia has also reacted to the EU’s third liberalisation package, using legal and technocratic instruments, which are parts of the market approach. Each set of instruments has its institutional basis in Russia: the President, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Gazprom work in geopolitical ways but with frequent recourse to legal instruments, the Ministry of Economic Development (MED) promotes legal instruments and the Ministry of Energy (ME) is the centre of the technocratic activities, which Gazprom also frequently applies at present. This study therefore provides a more complex picture of Russian external energy policy. Moreover, it reveals a potential opening for a degree of policy convergence between the EU and Russia. In this context it is regrettable that legal and technocratic instruments were compromised as a result of the 2014 worsening in EU-Russian relations.     

Unemployment Clubs in Russian Regions

In this article, we empirically investigate regional unemployment in Russia. We first detect the existence of two unemployment clubs, that is, regions with high (low) unemployment surrounded by regions with high (low) unemployment, and a group that comprises the remaining regions. We then apply a specially designed class of spatial-econometric models to regional data 2005–2012, using difference GMM, and we obtain partial confirmation of our two main hypotheses: (i) spatial effects for the high-high and low-low clubs regions differ significantly; and (ii) the determinants of unemployment of the two clubs significantly differ with respect to those of the remaining regions. Our results have key implications for the national- and regional-level policies.     

The sharpest tool in the shed: IPO financial statement management of STEM vs. non-STEM firms

The valuation of STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) firms has recently gained attention in the literature. Research has shown that, for valuation of STEM firms, accounting items such as sales growth and R&D expenditures matter more than bottom-line earnings. We examine whether, around the time of the IPO, STEM managers apply discretion over the accounting items most weighted by investors for their valuation. We find that investors tend to weigh sales growth and R&D more heavily than earnings in valuing STEM firms and that managers respond by managing those items rather than bottom-line earnings as in prior research. We find that future stock returns of STEM firms are negatively associated with sales management and not with abnormal accruals as for non-STEM firms. Our results illuminate the differential behavior of STEM managers and highlight the importance of a departure from the traditional IPO earnings management paradigm, which assumes that firms mainly manage their earnings.     

Accountants’ Relief Foundation (ARF): A not-for-profit case examining contribution receipts and distributions

The Accountants’ Relief Foundation case study exposes students to not-for-profit (NFP) transactions and performance evaluation. Your task is to: (1) explain the advantages and restrictions associated with NFPs, (2) describe and calculate customary NFP performance metrics and assess risks, (3) determine the existence of liabilities and expenses, (4) discuss contract-timing issues, (5) evaluate differences between discretionary and non-discretionary power, (6) evaluate contribution alternatives, and (7) use primary and secondary accounting literature to solve the case.     

Uncertainty in Value-at-risk Estimates under Parametric and Non-parametric Modeling

This study evaluates a set of parametric and non-parametric value-at-risk (VaR) models that quantify the uncertainty in VaR estimates in form of a VaR distribution. We propose a new VaR approach based on Bayesian statistics in a GARCH volatility modeling environment. This Bayesian approach is compared with other parametric VaR methods (quasi-maximum likelihood and bootstrap resampling on the basis of GARCH models) as well as with non-parametric historical simulation approaches (classical and volatility adjusted). All these methods are evaluated based on the frequency of failures and the uncertainty in VaR estimates.Within the parametric methods, the Bayesian approach is better able to produce adequate VaR estimates, and results mostly in a smaller VaR variability. The non-parametric methods imply more uncertain 99%-VaR estimates, but show good performance with respect to 95%-VaRs.