Term structure of interest rates in the Singapore Asian dollar market

This paper investigates empirically the term structure of interest rates in the Singapore Asian Dollar Market. We consider extended versions of the ARCH-M model of Engle, Lilien, and Robins (1987). The extended models permit autocorrelation, skewness and leptokurtosis in the residuals. The robustness of the empirical tests with respect to alternative specifications of the ARCH process is examined. It turns out that there is significant time-varying term premium, and this conclusion is independent of the hypothesized ARCH model.     

Market segmentation and information values of earnings announcements: Some empirical evidence from an event study on the Chinese stock market

This paper investigates the trading activities of two distinct classes of shareholders, namely, the Chinese domestic investors and the foreign investors in the segmented Chinese A- and B-share markets, respectively. We conduct an event study on the annual earnings announcements based on two different accounting standards: International accounting standards (IAS) and PRC generally accepted accounting principles (PRC GAAP). The earnings announcements based on IAS and PRC GAAP are value relevant. The investors in the B-share market react to both the IAS and PRC GAAP earnings announcements, while the investors in the A-share market pay more attention to the PRC GAAP earnings reports. In the B-share market, positive abnormal returns are associated with positive earnings surprise and negative abnormal returns go with negative earnings surprise. We find preevent abnormal trading volumes without significant price changes for the A shares, which may be due to existing information in the A-share market prior to earnings announcements. The postevent abnormal trading volumes last for a longer period in the A-share market than in the B-share market.     

Market Sentiments,Winner’s Curse and Bidding Outcome in Land Auctions

This paper empirically tests auction theory by examining how the stock market evaluates the outcome of open-bid English auctions of rights to develop residential real estate projects in Hong Kong. To do so, we deconstruct the complexity surrounding actual auction events, and empirically isolate the influence of conflicting auction theory predictions using data from expert opinion around auction events, actual auction event and outcome data, and stock market data. The empirical findings include (1) with increasing uncertainty bidders reduce bids, thus confirming predictions following the winner’s curse thesis; (2) joint bidding does not lead to increased bids based on pooled (“better”) information, but instead leads to reduced competition; while increased competition leads to increased prices at auction, as expected; (3) the market interprets auction outcomes as information events which function to signal developers’ expectations about future market prospects; but if the winning bid is considered too high, this interpretation is revised to that of the winner’s curse; (4) with joint bidding and winning, the market’s response to joint winners is better explained by concern for winner’s curse (despite supposed better informed bids) than the acquisition of a below cost development project following reduced competition at auction; and (5) the market interprets increased competition at auction as indicator of the future direction of property price movements in the secondary market—the more intense the competition, the more positive the future prospect of the property market are seen to be.     

Victor J. Tremblay and Carol Horton Tremblay. The U.S. Brewing Industry: Data and Economic Analysis. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2005. xiv + 379 pp. ISBN 0-262-20151-8, $40.00 (cloth).

The brewing industry does not appear to have attracted the sameresponse from business historians in the United States thatit has in countries such as Britain, where there have been severalauthoritative monographs. This book is therefore welcome. Writtenby the leading economists of American brewing, Victor J. Tremblayand Carol Horton Tremblay, it provides a comprehensive and analyticaloverview of the industry in the modern period. After setting out the general demand and cost     

Modelling reverse mortgages

This paper suggests a framework for analyzing reverse mortgages in a fixed interest rate environment as well as a variable interest rate environment. To analyze the risk and potential profit of a reverse mortgage, we propose to calculate the expected present value of profit and the probability of loss as indicators of the viability of the loan. Using Singapore data, we provide some estimates of these quantities for various levels of annuity payment under different circumstances.The author is from the Department of Economics and Statistics, National University of Singapore. He wishes to thank Chan Wai Sum, Thomas Herzog, Lim Kian Guan (the previous chief editor), Tan Kin Lian and Albert Tsui for their invaluable comments on the earlier drafts of the paper. All errors and shortcomings, however, remain his responsibility.     

Turnaround strategy: A study of restaurant firms

This paper uses a case study approach to analyze the turnaround actions of two restaurant firms and compares them to the model of Robbins and Pearce [1992. Strategic Management Journal 9, 287–309]. The objective of this study is to scrutinize why these firms were unsuccessful in turning around and identify gaps between the firms’ actions and the empirical model of turnaround proposed by Robbins and Pearce. Two key turnaround measures, i.e., retrenchment and recovery are explored in detail and discussed in the context of the firms. The need for studying turnaround strategies is warranted as the number of hospitality firms that perish because of unsuccessful turnaround strategies is on the increase. Since turnaround strategies have not been pursued vigorously as a stream of research within the hospitality industry context, this approach would provide a framework for hospitality researchers to initiate similar future research efforts, which in turn would help the industry cope with turnaround.