THE BEHAVIOR OF U.S. PUBLIC DEBT AND DEFICITS DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

In this paper we test the sustainability of U.S. public debt for the period 1916–2012 by analyzing how the primary surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) responds to changes in the debt to GDP ratio in a time‐varying parameter model. Further, we determine the stationarity property of the debt/GDP ratio while accommodating possible breaks in the data caused by wars and economic crisis under both the null and alternative hypotheses of an endogenous unit root test. The results show that the U.S. public debt was sustainable until 2005 when the primary surplus to GDP reacted negatively to the debt/income ratio. This is further exacerbated during the global financial crisis when primary surpluses continued to fall with increased debt, thus jeopardizing the sustainability of fiscal policy. While the stationarity test shows that the U.S. fiscal debt/GDP ratio is sustainable, it fails to highlight the risk that its debt policy has been becoming unsustainable in recent years. (JEL H62, E62, C2)     

Vertical specialization in the EU and the causality of trade

We use a novel classification scheme to identify three stages of production in the manufacturing sector: parts, components and final goods. In particular, we offer evidence on the revealed comparative advantage of the EU-27 countries concerning the three vertically separated stages of production. Moreover, we investigate whether, and if so how, imports of parts, and components can work as a predictor for the exports of final goods. We find that countries specialize at different stages of production, and that components are Granger causal for the export of final goods in many countries with a lag of 3 months.     

Stock Price Reaction to News: The Joint Effect of Tone and Attention on Momentum

The authors find that the market's underreaction to good news is a driver of Gutierrez and Kelly's [2008 Gutierrez, R. and E. K. Kelly. “The Long-lasting Momentum in Stock Returns.” The Journal of Finance, 63, (2008), pp. 415–447.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] weekly momentum returns. By employing a dataset of 10.1 million news items in 4 regions (the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Asia Pacific), they find that stocks having important and positive news exhibit stronger return continuation. The study findings suggest that investors in international markets have similar underreaction to the same news characteristics.     

Pricing and capacity provision in electricity markets: an experimental study

The creation of adequate investment incentives has been of great concern in the restructuring of the electricity sector. However, to achieve this, regulators have applied different market designs across countries and regions. In this paper we employ laboratory methods to explore the relationship between market design, capacity provision and pricing in electricity markets. Subjects act as firms, choosing their generation capacity and competing in uniform price auction markets. We compare three regulatory designs: (1) a baseline price cap system that restricts scarcity rents, (2) a price spike regime that effectively lifts these restrictions, and (3) a capacity market that directly rewards the provision of capacity. Restricting price spikes leads to underinvestment. In line with the regulatory intention both alternative designs lead to sufficient investment albeit at the cost of higher energy prices during peak periods and substantial capacity payments in the capacity market regime. To some extent these results confirm theoretical expectations. However, we also find lower than predicted spot market prices as sellers compete relatively intensely in capacities and prices, and the capacity markets are less competitive than predicted.     

Spatial fiscal interactions among French municipalities within inter-municipal groups

Based on a unique data set of French municipalities and a large number of budgetary variables, we estimate the extent of spatial fiscal interaction among the 33,484 French municipalities in 2008 by accounting for inter-municipal cooperation. Using a spatial autoregressive model with inter-municipal group fixed effects, we show that spatial interactions among French municipalities are inflated by correlated effects that affect similarly municipalities that cooperate together. Removing these confounding effects leads to considerably smaller positive spatial interactions for tax decisions and even negative ones for capital expenditures. In addition, we observe a clear distinction between complementary choices on current budget items and substitutable choices on capital budget items.     

Building and Interpreting Macro/Micro Estimates of Accrued‐to‐Date Pension Liabilities: French Reforms as a Case Study

Estimates of accrued‐to‐date pension liabilities (ADL) should become more widely accessible to statisticians and decision makers in the near future, in application of new SNA requirements. This raises two questions: how can such estimates be routinely produced, and what for? Microsimulation helps in answering the first question of the “how.” It allows ADL computations that take into account the complexity of pension rules. Concerning the “what for” question, it is known that ADL are not an indicator of global financial sustainability. Messages they convey are more interesting at the micro level, from a household perspective. This fosters the case for microsimulation which spontaneously generates consistent micro/macro results. We illustrate these points using the French situation as a case study. We emphasize one aspect of French reforms that may concern other countries as well: the move to price indexation and the connection it creates between sustainability and growth assumptions.     

我国文化贸易与文化产业发展对策研究

21世纪前20年是我国改革开放和现代化建设的重大战略机遇期。因此,发展我国国际文化贸易和文化产业对于拉动经济增长、优化贸易结构、增强我国的国际影响力都十分必要。     

塔里木河中下游退耕还林还草评价指标体系设计

退耕还林还草是生态环境建设的重要内容和组成部分,是防治土地退化的重要举措.建立一套科学、合理、具有可操作性的退耕还林还草评价指标体系,是工程顺利实施的重要保证.根据塔里木河中下游地区的实际情况,本文设计出了15个包括水、土壤、植被、经济为主要因素的流域生态、经济效益评价指标,为区域农林牧可持续发展提供依据.     

Non-convex aggregate technology and optimal economic growth

This paper examines a model of optimal growth where the aggregation of two separate well behaved and concave production technologies exhibits a basic non-convexity. First, we consider the case of strictly concave utility function: when the discount rate is either low enough or high enough, there will be one steady state toward which the convergence of the optimal path is monotone and asymptotic. When the discount rate is in some intermediate range, we will find sufficient conditions for having either one equilibrium or multiple equilibria steady state. Depending to whether the initial capital per capita is located with respect to a critical value, we show that the optimal paths monotonically converge to one single appropriate equilibrium steady state. Second, we consider the case of linear utility and provide sufficient conditions to have either unique or two steady states when the discount rate is in some intermediate range. In this range, we give conditions under which the above critical value might not exist, and the economy attains one steady state in finite time, then stays at the other steady state afterward. P. Michel passed away when this research was completed. This paper is dedicated to his memory as a friend and colleague. N. M. Hung and C. Le Van thank the referee for vey helpful remarks and criticisms. They are grateful to Takashi Kamihigashi for very fruitful discussions. They also thank J.-F. Leclerc for editing the final version of this paper.     

我国高层次创新型青年科技人才的成长与管理分析

我国高层次青年科技人才有着良好的科学训练背景,具备较强的创新意识和创新潜力,但在其成长中存在科研资源获取通道阻塞和双重压力所引致的科研功利化、激励制度保障性不足、强权排压抑制创新动力、科研成果"泡沫化"等问题。要促进高层次青年科技人才的健康成长,就应当引入非盈利组织,建立青年科技人才成长的第三方服务平台,消除科研工作中权力垄断和"权力学术"的弊端,提供多样化的科技资源获取通道,建立执行有力和保障充分的科技人才可持续激励制度,增强青年科技人才科研工作与社会需求的对接。