THE BEHAVIOR OF U.S. PUBLIC DEBT AND DEFICITS DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

In this paper we test the sustainability of U.S. public debt for the period 1916–2012 by analyzing how the primary surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) responds to changes in the debt to GDP ratio in a time‐varying parameter model. Further, we determine the stationarity property of the debt/GDP ratio while accommodating possible breaks in the data caused by wars and economic crisis under both the null and alternative hypotheses of an endogenous unit root test. The results show that the U.S. public debt was sustainable until 2005 when the primary surplus to GDP reacted negatively to the debt/income ratio. This is further exacerbated during the global financial crisis when primary surpluses continued to fall with increased debt, thus jeopardizing the sustainability of fiscal policy. While the stationarity test shows that the U.S. fiscal debt/GDP ratio is sustainable, it fails to highlight the risk that its debt policy has been becoming unsustainable in recent years. (JEL H62, E62, C2)     

Vertical specialization in the EU and the causality of trade

We use a novel classification scheme to identify three stages of production in the manufacturing sector: parts, components and final goods. In particular, we offer evidence on the revealed comparative advantage of the EU-27 countries concerning the three vertically separated stages of production. Moreover, we investigate whether, and if so how, imports of parts, and components can work as a predictor for the exports of final goods. We find that countries specialize at different stages of production, and that components are Granger causal for the export of final goods in many countries with a lag of 3 months.     

Stock Price Reaction to News: The Joint Effect of Tone and Attention on Momentum

The authors find that the market's underreaction to good news is a driver of Gutierrez and Kelly's [2008 Gutierrez, R. and E. K. Kelly. “The Long-lasting Momentum in Stock Returns.” The Journal of Finance, 63, (2008), pp. 415–447.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] weekly momentum returns. By employing a dataset of 10.1 million news items in 4 regions (the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Asia Pacific), they find that stocks having important and positive news exhibit stronger return continuation. The study findings suggest that investors in international markets have similar underreaction to the same news characteristics.     

Spatial fiscal interactions among French municipalities within inter-municipal groups

Based on a unique data set of French municipalities and a large number of budgetary variables, we estimate the extent of spatial fiscal interaction among the 33,484 French municipalities in 2008 by accounting for inter-municipal cooperation. Using a spatial autoregressive model with inter-municipal group fixed effects, we show that spatial interactions among French municipalities are inflated by correlated effects that affect similarly municipalities that cooperate together. Removing these confounding effects leads to considerably smaller positive spatial interactions for tax decisions and even negative ones for capital expenditures. In addition, we observe a clear distinction between complementary choices on current budget items and substitutable choices on capital budget items.     

Building and Interpreting Macro/Micro Estimates of Accrued‐to‐Date Pension Liabilities: French Reforms as a Case Study

Estimates of accrued‐to‐date pension liabilities (ADL) should become more widely accessible to statisticians and decision makers in the near future, in application of new SNA requirements. This raises two questions: how can such estimates be routinely produced, and what for? Microsimulation helps in answering the first question of the “how.” It allows ADL computations that take into account the complexity of pension rules. Concerning the “what for” question, it is known that ADL are not an indicator of global financial sustainability. Messages they convey are more interesting at the micro level, from a household perspective. This fosters the case for microsimulation which spontaneously generates consistent micro/macro results. We illustrate these points using the French situation as a case study. We emphasize one aspect of French reforms that may concern other countries as well: the move to price indexation and the connection it creates between sustainability and growth assumptions.     

Pricing and capacity provision in electricity markets: an experimental study

The creation of adequate investment incentives has been of great concern in the restructuring of the electricity sector. However, to achieve this, regulators have applied different market designs across countries and regions. In this paper we employ laboratory methods to explore the relationship between market design, capacity provision and pricing in electricity markets. Subjects act as firms, choosing their generation capacity and competing in uniform price auction markets. We compare three regulatory designs: (1) a baseline price cap system that restricts scarcity rents, (2) a price spike regime that effectively lifts these restrictions, and (3) a capacity market that directly rewards the provision of capacity. Restricting price spikes leads to underinvestment. In line with the regulatory intention both alternative designs lead to sufficient investment albeit at the cost of higher energy prices during peak periods and substantial capacity payments in the capacity market regime. To some extent these results confirm theoretical expectations. However, we also find lower than predicted spot market prices as sellers compete relatively intensely in capacities and prices, and the capacity markets are less competitive than predicted.     

Convergence among five industrial countries (1870–1994): Results from a time varying cointegration approach

In this paper, we check the hypothesis of a time varying cointegration relation between four industrial countries per capita GDPs and US per capita GDP on the period from 1870 to 1994. Park and Hahn (1999) give the methodology. Results confirm the hypothesis of time evolving cointegration in all cases. Tests on the parameters of these cointegration relations show that, from the 1980s onwards, we can accept the hypothesis of stochastic convergence between France, Germany and Japan, on one hand, and the United States on the other.First version received: December 2001 / Final revision received: September 2003     

On the Use of the Log CAR Measure in Event Studies

Cross-sectional averages of log returns have been used to measure shareholder wealth effects in several event studies. No adequate explanation of the implied portfolio strategy has ever been provided in the literature. We argue that the method is biased or does not portray a realistic portfolio strategy. It should therefore be used with caution in the event-study' literature.     

基于Kalman滤波的WCDMA上行链路衰落信道跟踪

针对WCDMA上行链路的结构，介绍了一种基于卡尔曼滤波和线性内插的信道跟踪方法。Kalman滤波器通过线性内插所提供的粗略的数据估计值来准确地获得信道参数的LMMSE解，跟踪信道的变化。仿真结果表明该方法能有效跟踪快速衰落信道，改善系统的性能。