Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents

Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of \(1/2\), and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report \(1/2\). Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.     

The elusive effects of trade on growth: Export diversity and economic take‐off

The hallmark of the voluminous growth determinants literature is the absence of a clear‐cut effect of trade on growth. Numerous candidate regressors have been motivated by alternative theories and tested by a multitude of empirical studies, but not one trade regressor has been robustly related to growth. In this paper, we leverage Melitz's (2003) insights regarding sectoral export dynamics and Feenstra and Kee's (2008) approach to productivity and sectoral export diversity to propose a structured approach to trade and growth determinants. Instead of relying on aggregate trade measures as previous studies have done, we examine the diversity of sectoral exports and the development of broad‐based comparative advantage as a potential growth determinant. Controlling for model uncertainty and endogeneity, we find that export diversity serves as a crucial growth determinant for low‐income countries, an effect that weakens with the level of development.     

Career Progression of Female Accountants in the State Public Sector

This study investigated the relationship of career anchors and work‐related barriers to career progression for female CPA members working in the New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australian (WA) state public sector. Results of regression analysis found technical functional competence, managerial competence, security and pure challenge career anchors to be significant and related to career progression in WA. Additionally the security and lifestyle career anchors were significant in NSW. Work‐related barriers were found to be significant and negatively related to career progression. These findings suggest alternative strategies to improve career outcomes for women working in the state public sector.     

Comparative North American and European gateway logistics: the regionalism of freight distribution

The global freight distribution system has been impacted by convergence in terms of technology, infrastructure, modes and terminals. Still, in spite of strong converging forces, it can be argued that logistical practices are far from being uniform. This paper analyses the regionalism in freight transport systems by providing a comparative analysis of gateway logistics practices in North America and Europe. It is demonstrated that Europe and North America are not walking the same paths when it comes to the configuration of transport and logistics networks, via operational decisions and the setting of a regulatory framework. The attributes of gateways, corridors, hinterlands, regulation, governance, value chains and labor provide an analytical framework to understand the regionalism of freight distribution in the North American and European contexts, as well as anywhere else.     

What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach based on aggregate models of the macroeconomy. In this article, the authors discuss the advantages and shortcomings of each approach in the context of course objectives. Because there is significant heterogeneity in textbook coverage, the authors summarize some of the approaches taken in current intermediate-level textbooks, which should serve as a useful starting point for new instructors. The authors also discuss how each approach can be extended to analyze the recent recession in the United States.     

Institutional quality and capital taxation

We describe the preferred taxation regime in a small economy with uncertain institutional quality. We obtain that a preferential taxation regime in which taxes can be matched to the mobility of the tax base may be worse off than a non-preferential taxation regime in which taxes are constant across bases with distinct mobility. Since the small economy takes foreign taxes as given, our result is not driven by a downward pressure on revenues caused by unconstrained tax competition. It is instead related to the ability of a non-preferential taxation regime to credibly convey information about the institutional quality of the small economy. We present some empirical evidence which corroborates our results.     

Oil price and FX-rates dependency

Oil prices and exchange rates against the dollar have both experienced long swings over the recent decade. Regardless of the great amount of research, some issues are still open to debate. In this vein, this paper focuses on the evolution of the relationship between oil prices and dollar exchange rates of 12 oil exporting and oil importing countries based on a dynamic copula approach. We use daily data for two 5-year periods between 2003 and 2013, taking the collapse of Lehman Brothers as the dividing point. Our results have four main implications: first, the intensity of relationship between oil prices and FX-rates has increased over time even if the peak of the financial crisis is included. Second, the increased tail dependency shows that extreme events are likelier to occur simultaneously for both series. Third, the dependency has become more dynamic after the financial crisis and is therefore better characterized by time-varying copulas. Finally, currencies of oil importers and oil exporters display a different dependency structure against the US dollar in the case of rising oil prices with the latter appreciating and the former depreciating.     

Challenging Traditional Culture? How Personal and National Collectivism-Individualism Moderates the Effects of Content Characteristics and Social Relationships on Consumer Engagement with Brand-Related User-Generated Content

Consumers across the globe increasingly engage with user-generated content about brands on social networking sites (i.e., brand-related user-generated content [Br-UGC]). As online consumer behavior does not occur in a cultural void, the present study extends earlier research by explicitly examining how the collectivism-individualism dimension, both at the national and at the personal level, influences consumers’ engagement (“liking,” commenting on, and sharing) with different types of Br-UGC created by different sources. Results based on a diverse sample of participants from South Korea, Thailand, the Netherlands, and the United States (N?=?812) suggest that collectivism-individualism at the national level moderates the effects of content characteristics and social relationships on Br-UGC engagement. Moreover, consumers who hold the same values as others in their national culture are more comfortable sharing informative Br-UGC.     

Disaffection with trade unions in China: some evidence from SOEs in the auto industry

Despite the growing research into China's industrial relations system there is remarkably little research into how China's workers regard their trade union. This article draws on over 500 interviews conducted in three SOEs in the auto industry in Hubei Province to examine this question.