Acquisition Pattern Analysis for Relationship Marketing: A Conceptual and Methodological Redefinition

Traditionally, relationship marketing focuses upon the interaction between suppliers and consumers. In this article, the authors propose that relationship marketing cannot ignore another type of (long-term) interaction: the one between consumers and products. Both types of interaction should be taken into account when assessing the nature and the quality of the relationship. The relevant literature on consumer–product interactions is limited. Existing theoretical concepts, including brand loyalty, cannot adequately cover the full notion of consumer–product interactions. Acquisition pattern analysis (APA) seems capable of providing an alternative. It provides an insight in the structure of product sets and acquisition orders. However, the available techniques for APA cause confusion by their emphasis on either the structure or the order of product acquisitions. The authors propose a methodological improvement, which has analytical implications as well. A study on purchases of financial products demonstrates the proposed alternative approach, and managerial implications are discussed.     

How advertising in offline media drives reach of and engagement with brands on Facebook

ABSTRACT

Research investigating the drivers of consumers’ engagement with brands on social media is proliferating. However, little is known about how advertising outside social media drives engagement with brands on social media. This study aims to explore the relation between advertising spend in different offline media (TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, out of home), and reach of and engagement with brand pages on Facebook. The study uses a unique real-life data-set containing information about the Facebook pages of 45 brands for approximately three years combined with Nielsen Advertising Spend data. Results showed that while advertising in offline media influenced organic and viral reach, the number of page likes was directly influenced by advertising on Facebook only. It can be concluded that offline advertising is relevant in driving consumers’ online brand engagement; however, there is a unique set of drivers for organic reach, viral reach and likes.     

董事会信息保密战

正创建互相信任的文化可能是董事会防范信息泄露的最佳措施,董事长应该以身作则,率先在董事会中营造充满信任与凝聚力的氛围信息时代,机密情报比以前更容易泄露。即时通讯工具和社交媒体赋予每个人通过英特网广泛传播消息的能力,而机密信息总是陷入被有意或无意暴露的风险中。追捧透明度和披露的文化潮流盛行,高调的泄密者时不时登上头版头条,维权股东和他们的提名     

Turkish trade unionists and Turkey’s membership of the European Union

In all the discussions regarding Turkey’s accession to the EU, little attention has been paid to the views of workers. This paper provides a statistical analysis of the views of over 6000 Turkish trade union members on Turkey’s EU membership. Parameters are estimated using multilevel probit models where the nested structures of workers into trade unions and federations were taken into account since they shared some joint characteristics because of belonging to these organisations. It confirms the extensive disillusion with the EU found elsewhere in Turkish society but more interestingly it disconfirms an idea that those inside the EU may too easily assume to be the case: that it is those with what might be considered modernist characteristics among the Turkish population who are most likely to be in favour of EU entry. The idea seems to chime well with assumptions that the EU is a progressive, modern force. But whatever the validity of such a view, EU entry is not in fact found to be the favoured goal of the young and the best educated: it is older workers who are the most likely to support entry and those who are educated to the highest level the most likely to oppose it. Amongst the main three trade union federations there is also a greater propensity of members of trade unions affiliated to Hak Is (the Islamic federation) to support entry than those in Turk Is (centre right) or DISK (historically the most militant).     

A strategic network choice model for global container flows: specification, estimation and application

Container flows have been booming for decades. Expectations for the 21st century are less certain due to changes in climate and energy policy, increasing congestion and increased mobility of production factors. This paper presents a strategic model for the movement of containers on a global scale in order to analyse possible shifts in future container transport demand and the impacts of transport policies thereon. The model predicts yearly container flows over the world’s shipping routes and passing through 437 container ports around the world, based on trade information to and from all countries, taking into account more than 800 maritime container liner services. The model includes import, export and transhipment flows of containers at ports, as well as hinterland flows. The model was calibrated against observed data and is able to reproduce port throughput statistics rather accurately. The paper also introduces a scenario analysis to understand the impact of future, uncertain developments in container flows on port throughput. The scenarios include the effects of slow steaming, an increase in land based shipping costs and an increased use of large scale infrastructures such as the Trans-Siberian rail line and the opening of Arctic shipping routes. These scenarios provide an indication of the uncertainty on the expected port throughputs, with a particular focus on the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands.     

For those about to talk we salute you: an experimental study of credible deviations and ACDC

We test the Average Credible Deviation Criterion (ACDC), a stability measure and refinement for cheap talk equilibria introduced in De Groot Ruiz et al. (Equilibrium selection in cheap talk games: ACDC rocks when other criteria remain silent, Working paper, University of Amsterdam 2012a). ACDC has been shown to be predictive under general conditions and to organize data well in previous experiments meant to test other concepts. In a new experimental setting, we provide the first systematic test of whether and to which degree credible deviations matter for the stability of cheap talk equilibria. Our principal experimental result is that in a setting where existing concepts are silent, credible deviations matter and matter gradually, as predicted by ACDC.     

Financial liberalization,openness and convergence

All industrialized nations relied on capital account controls for significant periods of their economic development and relaxations of capital account restrictions thought to be an integral aspect of economic development. Economists long advocated the removal of capital controls as a stabilizing factor of the development process to improve efficiency and return economies from distorted factor prices to production frontiers. Empirically, however, financial liberalizations have become associated with capital flow reversals, where initial capital inflows at the onset are subsequently offset by capital outflows resulting in higher levels of accumulated indebtedness. We investigate how capital flow reversals caused by financial liberalizations affect the speed of convergence of an economy. We show that financial liberalizations reduce short run convergence speeds, implying that open economies should experience significantly less output volatility but also longer transitions. The increased smoothness in response to initial shocks comes at a cost: as foreign borrowing rises to smooth domestic income fluctuations causing an increase in the domestic interest rate OECD data confirms our findings.     

Trade creation and diversion revisited: Accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects

The effect of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade flows is subject to model uncertainty stemming from the diverse and even contradictory effects suggested by the theoretical PTA literature. The existing empirical literature has produced remarkably disparate results and the wide variety of empirical approaches reflects the uncertainty about the ‘correct’ set of explanatory variables that ought to be included in the analysis. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. Statistical theory shows that BMA successfully incorporates model uncertainty in linear regression analysis by minimizing the mean squared error, and by generating predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we find strong evidence of trade creation, trade diversion, and open bloc effects. Our results are robust to a range of alternative empirical specifications proposed by the recent PTA literature. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete Spacings

Consider a string of n positions, i.e. a discrete string of length n . Units of length k are placed at random on this string in such a way that they do not overlap, and as often as possible, i.e. until all spacings between neighboring units have length less than k . When centered and scaled by n ^−1/2 the resulting numbers of spacings of length 1, 2,…,  k −1 have simultaneously a limiting normal distribution as n →∞. This is proved by the classical method of moments.