Optimal capital accumulation in generalized Leontief models

Summary This study is in normative growth theory. Discounted per capita consumption is maximized subject to Leontief technologies. Numerical linear programming examples exhibiting consumption turnpikes are presented and carefully analysed. Special attention is given to shadow prices and the discount rate in case of a choice between different technologies. It is shown that the introduction of so-called stock activities may lead to unrealistic results. An interesting extension is obtained by assuming embodied technological change. In this case, a new technique in a certain sector of the economy can only be introduced by means of investment. It appears that the consumption turnpike is approached in a very irregular way. The computer time increases substantially, which may be a problem in practical applications of this variant.I am grateful to Professor S.K. Kuipers and Dr. A.B.T.M. van Schaik for their comments and encouragement. Any errors remaining are mine.     

The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe

‘One Belt One Road’ is an extensive and complex initiative whose potential effect and influence are still currently pending for answers. This paper addresses the following research question: What is the effect of the New Silk Road intercontinental railways on the trade between China and its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe? We focus on nine railway lines connecting Europe and China, which started operations between 2011 and 2015. The countries’ trade patterns with railway connections to China are then compared to the countries without railway connections to China. We find the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China’s exports to its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe, especially concerning exports of manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Moreover, the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China’s imports of food and live animals from its trading partners.     

Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents

Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of \(1/2\), and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report \(1/2\). Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.     

Competition for versus on the Rails: A Laboratory Experiment*

European countries and Japan are contemplating more competition in passenger rail service. In the Netherlands, the Ministry of Transport was assigned responsibility for making a recommendation to Parliament for choosing between competition for the rails and competition on the rails. The Ministry commissioned the experiments reported here to acquire better understanding of the properties of the alternative policies. Competition on the rails involves allocation of rights to use station and time‐slot routes by price bids in a combinatorial auction. Competition for the rails involves allocation of rights to regional monopolies by fare‐structure bids for supplying a prespecified minimum schedule.     

Career Progression of Female Accountants in the State Public Sector

This study investigated the relationship of career anchors and work‐related barriers to career progression for female CPA members working in the New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australian (WA) state public sector. Results of regression analysis found technical functional competence, managerial competence, security and pure challenge career anchors to be significant and related to career progression in WA. Additionally the security and lifestyle career anchors were significant in NSW. Work‐related barriers were found to be significant and negatively related to career progression. These findings suggest alternative strategies to improve career outcomes for women working in the state public sector.     

Incumbent heterogeneity in creative destruction: a study of three Dutch newspaper organisations

With a study of three Dutch newspaper organisations, we identify four dimensions along which incumbent response to discontinuous change may differ: response timing (early or late), size of commitment to the new business (big or small), progression of commitment to the new business (continuous or intermittent), and approaches to bridging the capability gap (internal development, strategic alliance, or acquisition). These response strategies are neither mutually exclusive nor static, and their relative focus differs over time as well as across incumbents. Such inter-temporal and cross-sectional variations in response strategies are influenced by various incumbent-specific characteristics and shaped by interrelated contingencies internal or external to incumbents.     

Nonresponse in panel data: The impact on estimates of a life cycle consumption function

If missing observations in a panel data set are not missing at random, many widely applied estimators may be inconsistent. In this paper we examine empirically several ways to reveal the nature and severity of the selectivity problem due to nonresponse, as well as a number of methods to estimate the resulting models. Using a life cycle consumption function and data from the Expenditure Index Panel from the Netherlands, we discuss simple procedures that can be used to assess whether observations are missing at random, and we consider more complicated estimation procedures that can be used to obtain consistent or efficient estimates in case of selectivity of attrition bias. Finally, some attention is paid to the differences in identification, consistency, and efficiency between inferences from a single wave of the panel, a balanced sub-panel, and an unbalanced panel.     

What’s Causing Overreaction? An Experimental Investigation of Recency and the Hot‐hand Effect

A substantial body of empirical literature provides evidence of overreaction in markets. Past losers outperform past winners in stock markets as well as in sports markets. Two hypotheses are consistent with this observation. The recency hypothesis states that traders overweight recent information; they are too optimistic about winners and too pessimistic about losers. According to the hot‐hand hypothesis, traders try to discover trends in the past record of a firm or a team, and thereby overestimate the autocorrelation in the series. An experimental design allows us to distinguish between these hypotheses. The evidence is consistent with the hot‐hand hypothesis.     

Zur Sozialphilosophie der Ostwirtschaft

Ohne ZusammenfassungDer vorliegende Aufsatz ist das Ergebnis einer Teamarbeit. Insbesondere danke ich meinem wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter, Herrn cand. phil. W. Schneider, für seine Beiträge und der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft für eine Sachbeihilfe.