An appraisal of the Box-Jenkins approach to univariate time series analysis

Summary Some comments are made on the current methodology associated with theBox-Jenkins approach. The three strokes of Identification, Estimation and Verification are considered; and a final stage, that of Interpretation, mentioned. A discussion of whether the approach is practicable is also given.     

Dimensions of the public affairs/government relations function in major American corporations

The public affairs/government relations (PA/GR) function appears to be growing in importance in large corporations. A survey of the 500 largest U.S. industrial concerns was undertaken to ascertain their views and practices with regard to the PA/GR function. 130 of the 163 firms responding to the survey have a formalized PA/GR function in place. Survey data supports the idea that top corporate decision makers are allocating significant staff and decision making authority to the PA/GR function and that this activity differs significantly from the traditional lobbying and public affairs activities of the past.     

A Multivariate Linear Regression Test for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory

A test for the arbitrage pricing theory which employs a multivariate linear regression model is developed. Given a sample of return premiums for a set of N assets which includes a subset of k linearly independent portfolios, the k factor APT hypothesis is accepted if the intercept term is zero in the multivariate regression of the $(N?k)$ returns on the k portfolios. The test may be carried out simply, by using univariate multiple regression software. The relation of this test to the concept of performance potential and Sharpe's measure of performance is also discussed. If the performance potential of the k portfolios is not significantly less than the performance potential of the complete set of N assets, then the k factor APT hypothesis is accepted.     

THE ANALYSIS OF NET FARM INCOME: AN EXAMINATION OF FARM MANAGEMENT SURVEY DATA

The practical significance of the conventional “net farm income” is elusive. It would be useful to have an accepted method of dividing “management and investment income” into its recognised Components—managerial salary and return on tenant's capital. One is a residual if the other can be calculated, and both alternatives are considered. An empirical formula is suggested for estimating the managerial salary which may be imputed to the farmer, taking account of his total turnover, his labour bill and his net farm income. This formula is then applied to Farm Management Survey data, for individual farms and for groups of average, high and low performance (output per £ input). The method may permit closer analysis of relative profitability.     

Altruism and economic behavior: II--private charity and public policy

A bstract . The relative advantages of private charitable organizations as against government agencies in achieving efficient redistribution of income and supply of services are examined. Central to this discussion is the elasticity of private giving to tax concessions and the propoition of donor dollars being absorbed in overhead. Recent estimates of these magnitudes are summarized. Of parallel concern is to what extent can reliance on altruism by sellers of goods and services serve as a substitute for government regulations to enforce standards, prices or product disclosures. Finally, the ways in which government can use and encourage private charitable impulse to maximize social welfare are examined; of particular interest here is the literature surrounding Richard Titmuss' work on blood donorsbip which raises the issue of whether or not extension of markets reduces, rather than extends, individual choice. The growing technological complexities of society, it is concluded, render the altruistic virtues of trust and consideration increasingly valuable—if increasingly rare.     

SHORT-AND LONG-RUN FARM PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY; INTEGRATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

The paper presents an approach to an integrated long-run and short-run farm planning under uncertainty, based on a decomposition of the problem into (i) a series of short-run plans, and (ii) a master long-run plan. The series of the short-run plans are parametrically solved by linear programming "variable right hand" techniques and are later integrated into a long-run program using a (computerized) decision tree analysis. The attitude towards risk of the farm operator is expressed in the willingness to maximize the expected value of the income stream over the planning horizon subject to the restriction that alternatives which may lead to lack of liquidity must be eliminated.
Ce travail présenle une approche tentative ďintégrer, sous conditions incertaines, une planification de ferme à court et long terme. La planification est basée sur la partition du problème en (i) série de courte durée et (ii) de tongue durée. Les séries de courte durée sont résolues àľaide dun programme linéaire, et intégreés ensuite dans un programme à long terme àľaide de ľanalyse de "décision arbre."ľattitude envers les risques de ľentrepreneur est exprimée par la volonté-de maxiliser la valeur de revenu prévu au delá de la planification sous resérve de la restriction que des alternatives qui peuvent conduire à un manque de moyens liquides, doivent être éliminees.