Assessing the Efficiency of Risk Mitigation Strategies in Supply Chains

Mitigating supply chain risk is a critical component of a company's overall risk management strategy. Drawing upon Contingency Theory, we posit that the appropriateness and effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies are contingent on the internal and external environments and that there is no one‐size‐fits‐all strategy. While literature on risk management has proposed a variety of tools and techniques for effectively evaluating and managing supply chain risks, comprehensive assessment of the efficiencies of alternative risk mitigation strategies has not been addressed in the literature. Such an assessment will help managers select the appropriate mitigation strategy for a given decision‐making environment. To this end, this study is first of its kind in evaluating and proposing efficient supply chain risk mitigation strategies in the presence of a variety of risk categories, risk sources, and supply chain configurations. We combine an empirically grounded simulation methodology with data envelopment analysis and nonparametric statistical methods to analyze and rank alternative mitigation strategies. We find that the more efficient strategies focus on flexibility rather than on redundancy for supply chain failures. Our research presents several interesting and useful managerial insights for deciding what strategies are most capable of mitigating risks in a variety of contexts.     

Swedish economic growth and education since 1800

Abstract.  The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it builds and makes use of long-run data from Sweden on formal education that have never been used to date. Second, it provides a quantitative application of recent theoretical work on the link between demographic changes and economic growth through their effect on education. It concludes that changes in longevity may account for as much as 20% of the observed rise in education over the period from 1800–2000 via a horizon effect, but have little impact on income growth over the period. On the contrary, changes in population density and composition are central, mainly thanks to their effect on productivity. Most income growth over this period would not have materialized if demographic variables had stayed constant since 1800.     

Trade and Endogenous Formation of Regions in a Developing Country

The authors present a model of regional catching‐up and development without scale effects. Regional growth is driven by technological imitation which is determined by positive externalities from international trade, the regions’ geography, and regional institutions. For the two regions considered, factor endowments are immobile land and human capital which is perfectly mobile between the two regions. Endogenous formation of regions is analyzed by introducing a non‐symmetric decrease in international transaction costs, reflecting the different geography and institutions in the two regions. Using panel data from 354 South African magisterial districts over the period 1996 to 2000, we find that geography is important in explaining trade patterns. As predicted, regions that are larger in terms of economic size, with good foreign market access and know‐how of foreign markets, competitive transport costs and a good local institutional support framework will be more successful in exporting manufactured goods than other regions.     

Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing

This paper analyses both quarterly data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Survey on respondents’ expectations of recent and forthcoming manufacturing output and monthly Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures on actual manufacturing output within the UK. Quarterly output expectations of the CBI manufacturers are explained from the monthly ONS observations using a bounded rationality approach. The logistic formulation models the diffusion process across respondents. There is a backward-looking CBI Survey perspective, explained by past ONS observations, and a forward-looking perspective, explained from future ONS statistics. Also, the forecasting of monthly manufacturing output from earlier values, along with the quarterly CBI Survey information, is examined and tested against the alternative Pesaran/Thomas method. The study provides econometric evidence for the validity of the logistic model and shows that bounded rationality can explain the formation of predictions among business managers in the UK manufacturing sector. The emerging consensus from the literature, supported by this paper, is that the logistic format is a superior approximation to the true data generating process compared with the earlier standard Anderson/Pesaran/Thomas approach. An adjustment to the Survey is used, which achieves perfect symmetry with up and down versions of the data. The benefits of this adjustment are tested in the forecasting section.

The customer consequences of returns in online retailing: An empirical analysis

Pressure continues to build on the operations management function to facilitate system and firm level benefits. In the online marketplace, one area of growing interest is that of product returns. Though commonly viewed as a cost center from an operations perspective, operations’ actions have the potential to strongly influence future customer buying behavior in several ways. Using an archival database of actual purchase and returns history provided by a moderately sized online retailer, this study examines the relationship between a customer's experience of product returns, and subsequent shopping behavior. Employing transaction cost, consumer risk, and procedural justice theories, we demonstrate that the returns management process, rather than being regarded as an afterthought to the production and deployment of goods, can significantly and positively influence repurchase behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that certain customers should be considered for prioritization in the returns process. We suggest ways through which operations managers can take care in discharging their responsibilities in this area – to make returns processing more than simply a “necessary cost of doing business” rather, using it to their advantage in engendering repeat and increased purchase behavior.     

Child maturation, time-invariant, and time-varying inputs: their interaction in the production of child human capital

We model the relationship over time between multiple good and bad inputs to the child development production process and the multiple good and bad outcomes which are generated. Doing this avoids several well-known empirical problems associated with construction and use of aggregated inputs and outputs, the assumption of separability among inputs and outputs, and the estimation of reduced forms. Using time-demeaned data for a balanced panel of families from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth?CChild Sample for 1994?C2000, we estimate an output-oriented directional distance function that simultaneously relates good and bad inputs from home, school, and environment, to good and bad outcomes, measured as children??s math and reading test scores as well as parent-reported behavior problems. We are able for the first time to compute partial effects among endogenous outputs. Recovering consistent estimates of time-invariant coefficients using a second-stage estimator, we find that some time-invariant variables are significant. We also measure productivity growth, technical change, efficiency change, and technical efficiency. Children??s productivity growth is highest at age 5?years and diminishes thereafter. Finally, we investigate the effect on these estimates of the choice of alternative direction vectors for the good and bad outputs.     

Design parameters of the strategic planning process and organizational performance—a quantitative analysis of empirical research

After 50 years of research in strategic management, the design of strategic planning processes is still on the agenda for scholarly research. Using a quantitative meta-analysis, we examine empirical studies on the relationship between organizational performance and the design parameters of the strategic planning process that can be controlled by a firm. Whereas existing literature reviews focus on the effect of strategic planning on performance, this meta-analysis also considers the role of the location and participants in the strategic planning process, the distinct properties of strategic planners and the intensity of the planning method used. The effect sizes of existing primary studies are harmonized for better comparison and aggregated for a total effect. The total effect is tested for significance and checked for homogeneity.     

Why are Some Engaged and Not Others? Explaining Environmental Engagement among Small Firms in Tourism

This paper examines the reasons for different levels of environmental engagement among small firms in tourism. Drawing on theories of motivation, notably Social Cognitive Theory, Motivation Systems Theory and Goal Orientation Theory, as well as the literature on environmental sensitivity, it proposes a novel conceptual framework that is subsequently used to inform an empirical study. The findings of the research suggest that varying levels of environmental engagement may be explained by differences in worldviews, self‐efficacy beliefs, context beliefs and goal orientation. The paper concludes by considering the policy implications of the results. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An asset protection scheme for banks exposed to troubled loan portfolios

We examine a specific portfolio credit derivative, an Asset Protection Scheme (APS), and its applicability as a discretionary regulatory tool to reduce asymmetric information and help restore the capital base of troubled banks. The APS can be a fair-valued contract with an appropriate structure of incentives. We apply two alternative multivariate structural default risk models: the classical Gaussian Merton model and a model based on Normal Inverse Gaussian processes. Using a data set on annual farm level data from 1996 to 2009, we use the Danish agricultural sector as a case study and price an APS on an agricultural loan portfolio. We compute the economic capital for this loan portfolio with and without an APS. Moreover, we illustrate how model risk in the form of parameter uncertainty is reduced when an APS is attached to the loan portfolio.