Information processing and innovative choice

In this paper we examine how the information processing of subjects who make an innovative choice (innovators) differs from that of subjects who make a noninnovative choice (noninnovators). The task involves selection of an alternative within a range of prerated product category innovativeness. We propose that subjects who seek 1) impersonal/uncontrollable sources, 2) higher levels of information, 3) more detailed (versus summary) data, and 4) noncomparative (versus comparative) data are more likely to make innovative choices. The research method is a computerized process tracing experiment utilizing Search Monitor (Brucks 1988).The authors wish to express their gratitude to Merrie Brucks for the use of and help with Search Monitor and to Eric Johnson, Dave Schmittlein, and Mita Sujan for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

“Social force majeure” — A new concept in Nordic consumer law

Empirical research from various countries indicates that overindebtedness of consumers is, to a considerable extent, attributable to unexpected changes in the consumer's situation caused by illness, unemployment, and other such circumstances. It is therefore relevant to discuss whether and in what way such circumstances should be taken into account in the rules of private law. In Nordic (especially Finnish) legislation, mainly from the 1980s, there are several provisions which provide for mitigation of sanctions against a defaulting consumer if the delay is caused by illness, unemployment, etc. Such rules are contained, inter alia, in the legislation on consumer credit and on interest on delayed payments.On the basis of these provisions as well as some practices developed by the consumer authorities, a general principle of social force majeure is seen to be evolving. This doctrinal principle would enable the courts and other decision-makers to take into account unfavourable changes in the consumer's health, work, housing, and family situation in cases not regulated by specific legislation, e.g., by giving the consumer the right of withdrawal from burdensome contracts in such circumstances or to protect his right to retain electricity and telephone connections in spite of his temporary payment difficulties. The principle is expected to carry increasing weight in the future, especially in the practice of the consumer authorities. Strong arguments speak in favour of the general acceptance of such a principle.

---

Wirtschaftliche Unmöglichkeit aus sozialen Gründen — eine neue Rechtsfigur in den Nordischen Staaten

Zusammenfassung Empirisch-rechtssoziologische Untersuchungen aus verschiedenen Ländern kommen zu dem Ergebnis, daß Verschuldung und Zahlungsunfähigkeit von Verbrauchern zu einem großen Teil auf unerwartete Umweltänderungen zurückzuführen sind, etwa Krankheit, Arbeitslosigkeit und ähnliches. Es ist deshalb wichtig zu diskutieren, ob und in welcher Weise solche Umstände bei der Anwendung von Privatrechtsvorschriften berücksichtigt werden sollen. In den Nordischen Staaten, insbesondere in Finnland, gibt es seit den achtziger Jahren gesetzliche Vorschriften, die eine Abmilderung von Sanktionen gegen in Verzug geratene Schuldner vorsehen, wenn der Verzug auf Krankheit, Arbeitslosigkeit usw. zurückgeht. Diese Regeln finden sich im Recht des Konsumentenkredits und der Verzugszinsen. Auf der Basis dieser Vorschriften entwickelt sich eine neue Rechtsfigur der wirtschaftlichen Unmöglichkeit aus sozialen Gründen. Dieser Grundsatz würde es Gerichten und anderen Entscheidungsträgern ermöglichen, nachteilige Veränderungen der Gesundheit, Arbeitswelt, Haushalt und Familie des Verbrauchers auch in noch nicht gesetzlich geregelten Bereichen zu berücksichtigen, z.B. durch Gewährung eines Auflösungsrechts bei übermäßig belastenden Verträgen oder durch Schutz seines Rechts auf Versorgung mit Elektrizität und Telefon trotz zeitweiliger Zahlungsschwierigkeiten. Es wird erwartet, daß sich dieses Prinzip in Zukunft verstärkt durchsetzen wird, insbesondere in der Praxis von Verbraucherschutzbehörden. Wichtige Argumente sprechen für die allgemeine Anerkennung dieses Prinzips.

---

---

Thomas Wilhelmsson is Professor of Civil and Commercial Law at the Institute of Private Law, Faculty of Law, University of Helsinki, Vuorikatu 5, SF-00100 Helsinki, Finland, and a member of the Finnish Market Court.     

Understanding the flow of health policy in the United States: self-interest or ignorance?

Health policy decisions are made in an uneven manner, eluding attempts to explain developments with a coherent theory. Numerous explanations have been suggested to explain individual policy actions, but recently Feldstein has attempted a broader formulation. This Self-Interest Model of Health Policy, however, assumes full knowledge of a policy's benefits and costs. This is an unrealistic assumption, and the model is unable to explain important decisions that have been made in three areas: insurance for long-term care, universal access, and efficiency incentives. This article presents a broader, more powerful formulation of the Feldstein model, specifically incorporating public ignorance as a policy determinant. The vital role of education and health policy research is underscored.     

Vetoes Overridable by Simple Majorities

Conventional wisdom has it that the absolute (purely negative) veto is ineffective when overridable by a simple majority. That is flatly false. The examples that prove this surprising fact are themselves surprisingly ordinary yet oddly resistant to direct observation. They reveal virtues of a neglected institutional design.JEL classification: D71, D72     

Selecting Social Goals: J. M. Keynes and the Emergence of Ontological Rationality in Economics

In this paper we discuss the fundamental inconsistency that results from employing the two traditional concepts of rationality as the basis of selecting social goals. We then consider the possibility that the selection of social goals must be based on explicitly ethical criteria. To do so a third concept of rationality namely, ontological rationality, should be adopted. Moreover, we argue that J. M. Keynes in A Tract Monetary Reform based his public policy recommendations on a modified version of ontological rationality, thereby introducing ontological rationality into economics as the basis for selecting social goals.A previous version of this paper was presented at the Fifty-Eighth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 7–10, 2004. The authors are grateful to session participants for their helpful suggestions, though the authors alone are responsible for the contents of the paper.     

Trucking deregulation and highway safety: The effect of the 1980 Motor Carrier Act

The relationship between deregulation in the trucking industry and highway safety is an important economic and social issue. Analyses thus far have concentrated on the relationship between the downward pressure imposed on freight rates by deregulation and total safety investment by firms. Two issues which have been ignored are the effects that deregulation had on route carriage restrictions and total firm mileage. We show that the inclusion of these factors yields a model in which the relationship between motor carrier deregulation and highway safety is dependent upon the relative effects of all three factors. Estimation of the model using accident data implies that trucking deregulation did not deteriorate highway safety and may have actually improved it.     

LIQUIDITY,MONEY CREATION AND DESTRUCTION,AND THE RETURNS TO BANKING*

We build on our earlier model of money in which bank liabilities circulate as a medium of exchange. We investigate optimal bank behavior and the resulting provision of liquidity under a range of central bank regulations. In our model, banks issue inside money under fractional reserves, facing the possibility of excess redemptions. Banks consider the float resulting from money creation and make reserve‐management decisions that affect aggregate liquidity conditions. Numerical examples demonstrate positive bank failure rates when returns to banking are low. Central bank interventions may improve banks' returns and welfare through a reduction in bank failure.     

Stated Preferences, Real Behaviour and Anchoring: Some Empirical Evidence

We compare different contingent valuation question formats with each other and with observed behaviour for a non-monetary estimation task, the expected number of kilometers travelled by automobile. Open-ended questions, open-ended follow-up questions, dichotomous choice (DC) questions, and double-bound DC questions are included. The single and double-bound DC questions result in an estimated mean about twice as high as the actual value and the open-ended mean. The DC question overestimation seems to be due to an anchoring effect leading to yea-saying behaviour. Our results about the difference between DC questions and open-ended questions is consistent with the pattern observed in contingent valuations studies of the willingness to pay. Our results indicates that DC questions seem to be associated with a general overestimation problem that is present even for simple non-monetary estimation tasks.     

Promise and peril in implementing pay‐for‐performance

Why would managers abandon pay‐for‐performance plans they initiated with great hopes? Why would employees celebrate this decision? This article explores why managers made their decisions in 12 of 13 pay‐for‐performance “experiments” at Hewlett‐Packard in the mid‐1990s. We find that managers thought the costs of these programs to be higher than the benefits. Alternative managerial practices such as effective leadership, clear objectives, coaching, or training were thought a better investment. Despite the undisputed instrumentality of pay‐for‐performance to motivate, little attention has been given to whether the benefits outweigh the costs or the “fit” of these programs with high‐commitment cultures like Hewlett‐Packard was at the time. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

How useful are signals? A micro-structure analysis

We analyze how the market processes a signaling event by studying a sample of self-tender offers, events often viewed as signals of firm value. By examining changes in the degree of informed trading, we find asymmetric information costs fall at announcement, remain low throughout the event, and increase at offer expiration. By one month following expiration, informed trading returns to a level not significantly different from that prior to the offer. Higher risk firms have significantly larger declines in information asymmetry during the offer. Increases in information asymmetry persist one month following expiration for firms with lower pre-offer informed trading. (JEL G14, G32)