Estimating the Impact of Anti-dumping and Anti-cartel Actions Using Intervention Analysis

Intervention analysis is proposed as a method for estimating the effects of anti-dumping actions in the presence of a domestic cartel. Data requirements and modelling effort compare favourably with traditional structural model approaches. The method is applied to an anti-dumping action brought to the European Commission and in which the European producers of the product were fined after an anti-cartel action by the Commission covering an overlapping period. Interven tion analysis is applied to distinguish the effects of the anti-dumping action from those of changes in cartel behaviour     

Unlocking the transformative potential of branchless banking in Indonesia

Branchless banking has the potential to significantly enhance financial inclusion among Indonesia’s large and geographically disparate unbanked population and to connect Indonesia’s micro, small and medium enterprises to the global economy. Why has the branchless-banking revolution not yet materialised? Constrained by regulation, deployments have failed to attract a critical mass of users. Indonesia’s fragmented telecommunications sector has made it difficult for providers to emulate the success stories in other countries, in which dominant providers are competing for the market with a proprietary platform. In Indonesia, it is likely that a considerable degree of interoperability will be required for providers to unleash network effects and attract users. Indonesia’s providers are experimenting in this space. Recognising branchless banking’s potential to accelerate financial inclusion, Bank Indonesia appears committed to improving the regulatory framework. This article identifies the components of an enabling regulatory environment. Success in Indonesia would provide a model for a more widespread uptake of transformative branchless banking.     

Assessing the classification of work-relatedness of fatal incidents: a comparison between Australia,New Zealand and the United States

As part of a larger study comparing work-related fatal injury of workers in Australia, New Zealand and the United States, an assessment was made of the similarities and differences between the three countries in identifying fatal incidents as work-related or not. The researchers in each country independently classified 333 brief scenarios, describing a variety of fatal incidents, into one of nine categories related to work: worker, bystander, commuter, volunteer, student, suicide, other, unknown and none of the above. Complete agreement with the classification was moderate (62%), but agreement when classifying scenarios as working, not working or unknown was much higher (full agreement for 80% of scenarios; Kappa =0.71). Only 5% of scenarios were classified differently by all three countries. Other main findings of the study were that there is variation between countries in the interpretation of what is and what is not work-related, and variation in the amount or type of information required to make a definitive classification. Common circumstances described in the scenarios for which there was some disagreement in classification included domestic violence incidents at work, volunteer workers, business trips, social functions connected to work, hobby farmers and some possible bystander incidents that occurred on farms or on the road. The results suggest that, even without the use of standard definitions, comparisons between the datasets of the countries involved in this study can be made with reasonable confidence. However, they also emphasise the importance of minimising ambiguity in the definitions used, and of understanding the manner in which the definitions are applied, when comparing results between studies.     

Still balancing the books: the NUM and the 1984–85 strike

In the context of the NUM's decision to seek a merger, this article examines the financial impact of the 1984–85 strike. In conducting the strike, its federal structure is shown to have provided the union leadership with flexibility. But it has limited the capacity to recover afterwards and has consequences for merger prospects with other unions.     

ON THE INEFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY

Spending depends on the quantity of money. If an increase in the budget deficit is financed by sales of government debt to non-banks, the quantity of money is unchanged and public borrowing 'crowds out' private spending. But – if the government finances its deficit (or buybacks of existing debt) from the banks – the quantity of money, and hence spending and national income increase.     

Australia's coal seam gas boom and the LNG entry result

Queensland experienced extraordinary growth in booked 2P coal seam gas (CSG) reserves, rising from 3,400 PJ in 2005 to 41,200 PJ in 2013. Given annual domestic consumption of ca. 700 PJ/a, 2P reserves rapidly shifted from 14 to 72 years supply. Profit‐maximising firms sought to speed up commercialisation of reserves through the development of three liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants at Gladstone. In this article, we present forecasts of Australia's east coast interconnected gas system with daily resolution using our dynamic partial equilibrium model. Modelling results show the rapid development of LNG plants combined with restrictive CSG development policies in NSW may result in unserved load from 2016. Relaxing development constraints or delaying construction of one LNG terminal by 1 year could have avoided the risk of Unserved Load events in the domestic gas market. Lessons can be learned from this CSG‐LNG boom scenario. Facilitating new gas supplies is the most efficient way of alleviating the impacts of the CSG‐LNG boom on domestic markets in the medium term. In the long‐term, Australian policymakers may consider the merits of a National Net Benefits Test to maximise welfare through appropriate coordination – as is done by policymakers in the USA – as opposed to protecting local industries through ‘domestic gas reservation policies’.     

Analysis of the technical efficiency of state rubber farms in Vietnam

This study entails an analysis of the technical efficiency of natural rubber production by state farms in Vietnam. A time-varying stochastic frontier production function model for unbalanced data is estimated for 33 farms. Individual farm technical efficiencies are reported and discussed. One of the main results concerns the bimodal distribution of technical efficiency indices. A few farms operate near the production frontier while the bulk operate well away from the frontier. Some implications are drawn from the results as a guide to future policy research work in the rubber industry in light of recent moves by the Vietnamese government towards economic reform.