Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Daniel Yergin: The new map: energy,climate, and the clash of nations

Business Economics -     

Inflationsziel und Inflationsmessung in der Eurozone im Wandel

Wirtschaftsdienst - Viele Menschen im Euroraum haben zunehmend das Gefühl, dass der allgemeine Kaufkraftverlust des Geldes sehr viel höher ist als die offiziell gemessenen...     

A proposal for a more objective measure of de facto constitutional constraints

In this paper we propose two new indicators of de facto constitutional constraints. The indicators are based on the presence or the absence of easily observable political events. This makes the proposed measures relatively objective and easy to verify relative to the most widely used indicators of de jure and de facto constitutions. This paper describes the indicators and demonstrates their usefulness for research on economic development.     

Change by Design

Over the course of a century of professional practice, designers have mastered a set of skills that can be productively applied to a wider range of problems than has commonly been supposed. These include complex social problems, issues of organizational management, and strategic innovation. Conversely, non‐designers—those in leadership positions in companies, governmental and non‐governmental organizations, professionals in a broad range of services and industries—can benefit from learning how to think like designers. We offer some large‐scale and more finely grained ideas about how this might happen.     

Is a Policy of Free Movement of Workers Sustainable?

In this paper, we study the costs and benefits of the adoption of a policy of free movement of workers. For countries to agree on uncontrolled movements of workers, short‐run costs must be outweighed by the long‐term benefits of better labor‐market flexibility and income smoothing. We show that such a policy is less likely to be adopted when workers are more impatient and less risk‐averse, when production technologies display stronger decreasing returns, and when countries trade a significant share of their products.     

Self‐Determination Theory and Word of Mouth about Energy‐Saving Behaviors: An Online Experiment

The growing community concern for the environment, and rising energy costs to consumers, has led many power utility companies to adopt strategies aimed at reducing energy consumption in the home and workplace. These strategies have typically been based on extrinsically regulated pricing mechanisms. Although more intrinsically driven interventions have been examined, they are often complex and expensive to implement due in part to the high level of human interaction involved. This two‐part study suggests simpler more cost‐efficient alternatives to enhancing energy saving. It does this via two separate but related studies that examined the application of self‐determination theory (SDT) and word of mouth (WOM) within online communities. The findings suggest a significant increase in reported energy‐saving behaviors over time supporting the role of SDT. There was also evidence that positive WOM increases satisfaction of the three psychological needs of autonomy, competence, and relatedness, further enhancing energy‐saving behavior. These findings have important implications for marketers in terms of behavior change.