Remove Housing Subsidies

The distortions in the housing market caused by government intervention were attached by the Duke of Edinburgh in his Report this year. Tom Taylor (right), of the University of Wales Institute of Science and Technology, contrasts the Duke's conclusion that mortgage subsidies must be abolished with the analysis of John Parry Lewis in Economic Affairs October-November 1984. Mortgage interest tax relief, concludes Mr Taylor, will have to be removed.     

Measuring central bank independence: a latent variables approach

We argue that central bank independence (CBI) is a latent variable of which the various existing quantifications are imperfect indicators. We show how factor analysis techniques can be employed to assess the quality of the various indicators, and how an optimal weighting of the indicators can be obtained that gives the best approximation of CBI. We also show how these results can be utilized in models in which CBI is an explanatory variable. In contrast to the well‐known study of Campillo and Miron (1997) , we find that our CBI indicator is significantly related to inflation, also when various control variables are included.     

ANTITHETIC VARIATES FOR MONTE CARLO ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITIES

This paper explores some possibilities for variance reduction by the use of antithetic variates when estimating probabilities.     

Optimal contract design: For whom?

In designing a derivative contract, an exchange carefully considers how its attributes affect the expected profits of its members. On November 3, 1997, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange doubled its tick size of its S&P 500 futures contract and halved the denomination, providing a rare opportunity to examine empirically the search for an optimal contract design. This article measures changes in the trading environment that occurred in the days surrounding the contract redesign. We find a discernible change in the incidence of price clustering, an increase in the bid/ask spread, a reduction in trading volume, and no meaningful change in dollar trade size. These results suggest that the contract redesign did not increase accessibility but did increase market maker revenue. Despite the increase, however, the bid/ask spread of the S&P 500 futures contract remains low relative to the costs of market making and the spreads in markets for competing instruments. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:719–750, 2003     

Urban Fortunes and Skeleton Cityscapes: Real Estate and Late Urbanization in Kigali and Addis Ababa

In many parts of Africa, societies that remain primarily rural are experiencing accelerated urban growth and highly visible booms in property development. In the absence of significant industrialization, investment is pouring directly into what Lefebvre and Harvey characterized as the ‘secondary circuit’ of capital. Debates about the drivers of investment in real estate are longstanding in relation to the global North, but have given little consideration to low‐income and late‐urbanizing countries in Africa. Yet such contexts offer important opportunities to reflect on existing theory. Focusing on Kigali and Addis Ababa (both transformed virtually beyond recognition over the past two decades), this article explores the drivers and consequences of investment in urban real estate in countries striving to structurally transform their economies. It argues that a range of formal and informal incentives and constraints have led to high‐end real estate being viewed as the ‘safest bet’ for those with resources to invest, even where demand is limited and governments are promoting other kinds of investment. While some people are reaping urban fortunes in largely untaxed rents, much of the construction is purely speculative, creating landscapes of unused and underused high‐end properties in contexts where investment is desperately needed elsewhere.     

Sharing Longevity Risk: Why Governments Should Issue Longevity Bonds

Government-issued longevity bonds would allow longevity risk to be shared efficiently and fairly between generations. In exchange for paying a longevity risk premium, the current generation of retirees can look to future generations to hedge their systematic longevity risk. Longevity bonds will lead to a more secure pension savings market, together with a more efficient annuity market. By issuing longevity bonds, governments can aid the establishment of reliable longevity indices and key price points on the longevity risk term structure and help the emerging capital market in longevity-linked instruments to build on this term structure with liquid longevity derivatives.