Unexpected Share Repurchase Announcements

Abstract

Open-market stock repurchase announcements are generally perceived by the stock market as a signal of firm undervaluation. Our study shows that repurchase announcements that were preceded by SEOs of other firms in the same industry within the prior six months (namely SEO-RPs) are more likely the result of lacking investment opportunities than signaling undervaluation, especially in concentrated industries. Specifically, we find investors response negatively to SEO-RP announcements while react positively to regular repurchase announcements. The higher the intensity of SEO activities in the industry, the more negative market reaction to SEO-RP announcements. We argue that the market doesn’t expect a repurchase announcement when other rival firms are raising more capital via SEOs. These SEO-RPs represent a negative surprise to the market and lead to a downward adjustment in value of the repurchasing firms in the announcement window. In the three-year post-announcement periods, the SEO-RP firms underperform regular repurchasing firms in both stock return and operating performance. Moreover, while regular repurchasing firms gradually increase their capital expenditures, SEO-RP firms significantly reduce their capital expenditures. These findings support our arguments that repurchase announcements that immediately follow SEOs of rival firms (SEO-RPs) more likely indicate the announcing firms entering a slower growth rate with fewer investment opportunities than signal the undervaluation problem. The underperformance in stock return and operation combined with a significant reduction in capital expenditures in the post-announcement periods are consistent with this logic and also explain why the market reacts negatively to SEO-RP announcements.     

International Trade and Income Inequality*

We propose a simple theory that shows a mechanism through which international trade entails wage and job polarization. We consider two countries in which individuals with different abilities work either as knowledge workers, who develop differentiated products, or as production workers, who engage in production. In equilibrium, ex ante symmetric firms attract knowledge workers with different abilities, and this creates firm heterogeneity in product quality. Market integration disproportionately benefits firms that produce high-quality products. This winner-take-all trend of product markets causes a war for talents, which exacerbates income inequality within the countries and leads to labor-market polarization.     

A microeconometric analysis of housing and life satisfaction among the Vietnamese elderly

This study examines the relationship between housing and subjective well-being among the Vietnamese elderly, using data from the 2011 Vietnam Ageing Survey. Our regression analysis reveals that permanent housing and better amenities are major factors contributing to housing satisfaction and life satisfaction. Notably, we find that housing satisfaction has a strongly positive impact on life satisfaction and the impact is stronger after controlling for endogeneity problems. Thus, the finding confirms that housing is an important life domain and as a result, housing satisfaction is a strong predictor of life-satisfaction judgments. The findings might suggest that people made a rational choice when they invested a large amount of resources in their houses with notable well-being gains. Also, another implication here is that policies and programs to assist poor families in moving out of temporary accommodation or improving housing amenities are likely to be beneficial in improving well-being for the poor elderly.

     

Dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China: an analysis of productivity growth

This study investigates the dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China through influencing the productivity growth of human capital byapplying Markov switching estimates for the annual time series data of China over the period 1952–2014. Firstly, we found that the Chinese economy exists in two states including state one with low growth and state two with high growth. Secondly, the consumption spending has significantly positive effect both states, while the military spending has only positive effect in state two. Interestingly, the growth effect level of consumption spending in state two is smaller than that in state one, implying a reducing effect of total factor productivity in state two. Thirdly, the combined effects of consumption spending and military spending with human capital are state dependent. This combined effect is reduced in both states, suggesting that government spending does not improve the productivity growth effect of human capital.     

IMPACTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM: A SYSTEM GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS ESTIMATION

Using a system generalized method of moments model, the present paper investigates the impacts of trade liberalization on employment in Vietnam from 1999 to 2004. The results show that the increase in industrial output increased labor demand, whereas the increasing wage rate led to a decline in the employment level. The impact of export expansion on derived labor demand was positive and statistically significant, indicating that the higher level of exports than previously presented employment opportunities for the country's large labor surplus. As far as imports are concerned, empirical observations indicate that imports did not necessarily negatively impact Vietnam's employment level.     

Diversification strategies and firm performance in Vietnam

This paper is based upon the assumption that a firm's profitability is determined by its degree of diversification which is, in turn, strongly related to the antecedent decision to carry out diversification activities. This calls for an empirical approach that permits the joint analysis of the three interrelated and consecutive stages of the overall diversification process: diversification decision, degree of diversification and outcome of diversification. We apply parametric and semi‐parametric approaches to control for sample selection and the endogeneity of the diversification decision in both static and dynamic models. For the analysis, we use the census dataset on the whole firm population in Vietnam, as a representative of transition countries. After controlling for industry fixed‐effects, the empirical evidence from the firm‐level data shows that diversification has a curvilinear effect on profitability: it improves firms’ profit up to a point, after which a further increase in diversification is associated with declining performance. This implies that firms should consider optimal levels of product diversification when they expand their product offerings beyond their core business. Other noteworthy findings include the following: (i) the factors that stimulate firms to diversify do not necessarily encourage them to extend their diversification strategy; (ii) firms that are endowed with highly technological resources and innovation investment are likely to successfully exploit diversification as an engine of growth; and (iii) while industry performance does not have a strong influence on the profitability of firms, it impacts their diversification decision as well as the degree of diversification.     

Valuing cultural heritage in developing countries: comparing and pooling contingent valuation and choice modelling estimates

A substantial part of the United Nation’s World Heritage Sites (WHSs) can be found in developing countries, but many of them are in a bad state. Thus, there is a need to document the social benefits of these global goods in order to justify the costs of restoration and preservation programmes (RPPs). This study adds to the scarce literature on economic benefits of WHSs in developing countries, and reduces the need to perform very uncertain benefit transfers from European or US valuation studies. We apply Contingent Valuation (CV) and Choice Modelling (CM) to estimate the social benefits of RPPs for the My Son world cultural heritage site in Vietnam; both to foreign visitors and the local residents. We then compare the estimates from the CV and CM methods, and pool the results from the two methods. The results show that both CV and CM are suited to estimating the economic benefits of preserving cultural heritage of My Son. The two methods produce very similar results, which can be interpreted as a test of convergence validity. The pooling results give evidence to show that the CV and CM models have the same underlying preference structures. Thus, these valuation models can be successfully used in cost-benefit analyses to assess the benefits to cultural heritage of measures to reduce air pollution, soil erosion, climate change and other causes to deterioration of cultural heritage sites.

Optimal infant industry protection during transition to World Trade Organization membership – A numerical analysis for the Vietnamese motorcycle industry

This paper proposes a framework to derive the optimal dynamic path of tariffs to protect infant industries when a country initiates a process to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). The framework is based on the model of Melitz (2005) in which externalities associated with dynamic learning-by-doing provide a rationale for infant industry protection. Unlike the original model, this paper assumes that there is a time limit for protection: after a fixed number of years, tariffs are required to be constant over time at a low level. This setup reflects the nature of the actual WTO agreement. This model is solved analytically to derive quantitative implications for the optimal tariff path, unlike in Melitz (2005), where only qualitative analyses are undertaken. An interesting result emerges: conventional wisdom is that a country in this situation should reduce the tariff rate gradually over time so that it converges to its long-run rate at the terminal date of protection. By contrast, this paper finds that, in some plausible scenarios, the optimal time path of the tariff can be upward sloping. A numerical analysis applied to the Vietnamese motorcycle industry, a typical infant industry in a country joining the WTO, confirms such a pattern.