RECIPROCITY IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

This article is in two parts. First, the theoretical basis underlying the possibility of reciprocity in trade is stated. Secondly, a study has been made of statistics of post war trade between the U.K and its major trading partners in an attempt to see whether any evidence of reciprocity emerges and, if so, the nature of the relationship. Doubt is cast on the supposition that a calculation of net import saving is a reliable short-run estimate of net balance of payments contribution of an expansion of U.K. agriculture. Finally, the results of the analysis are applied to the level of import saving projected by the National Economic Development Committee's Report on “Agriculture's Import Saving Role”.     

Alternative Mortgage Instruments, Qualification Constraints and the Demand for Housing: An Empirical Analysis

Government-guaranteed mortgage loans (GFRMs) and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were introduced to make payment to income (PTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) qualification conventions less restrictive. This paper analyzes the effect of GFRMs and ARMs on the demand for housing. Using a large national data set for the 1988 to 1989 period, we employ a two-stage procedure to estimate housing demand. In the first stage, a multinomial logit model estimates the probability of choosing an FRM, ARM or GFRM. Predicted values from the logit are used to construct user costs and estimate housing demand. Using the model estimates, we simulate demand under four different mortgage availability regimes: FRM, FRM and GFRM, FRM and ARM and all three. These simulations indicate that GFRMs, by relaxing LTV constraints, increase housing demand by approximately 6.2% relative to the FRM regime; the addition of ARMs, by relaxing both PTI and LTV constraints, raises demand by an additional 6%, for a total of 12.2% with inclusion of all alternatives.     

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND VOUCHER BUY-OUTS IN RUSSIA

This paper examines the issues which may create pressures and incentives to introduce efficiency-enhancing governance structures in enterprises which are privatized through voucher schemes in Russia. These pressures emphasize the need to view buy-outs created on privatization as transitory organizational forms with a three-stage process being suggested as the most feasible for developing governance mechanisms which produce efficiency gains, The paper uses illustrative case studies of the first major enterprises to experience post-privatization ownership changes.     

THE IMPACT OF RURAL OUTMIGRATION ON REGION OF ORIGIN IN KOREA*

To assess the impact of rural outmigration on regions of origin, this paper borrows from international trade theory to develop a model of rural-to-urban migration. Borrowing from theories of nontraded goods and Dutch Disease, a model is developed for application to Korea. The model finds that rural outmigration can be detrimental to the rural sector when outmigration reduces farm profitability and triggers deterioration in the rural service sector. Farm profitability falls because of rising labor costs that cannot be passed on to consumers. The rural service sector falters when outmigration reduces market demand while raising input costs. County (kun) level Korean census data are used to test the model.     

Evaluating Expert Systems in a Financial Domain: A Study Demonstrating Issues in Case Selection,Validation Standards and Evaluator Bias

This article describes and generalizes a validation study of four commercially available personal financial planning expert systems and the rationale for the research methodology used. Our evaluation of these systems adds to the understanding of verification and validation issues related to case selection, validation standards and evaluator bias. The article describes the systems, their domain and the empirical method—field tests using hypothetical cases—and relates that method to the literature. Comparing same-task systems combines multiple system perspectives and multiple models. Our methodology did efficiently and effectively identify conflicting terminology, omissions and system weaknesses but was inadequate for comparing the complex plan recommendations. The results re-emphasize the importance of continual knowledge base updating, formal system testing and the need for external evaluation. The results also show the value of comparing multiple, same-task systems.