Forecasting volatility in the Singapore stock market

Volatility forecasting is a major area in the pricing of derivative securities, such as stock and index options. In this paper, we compare three methods of forecasting volatility. These are the naive method based on historical sample variance, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method, and the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. Out-of-sample forecasts of monthly return variances generated by these three methods are compared. The results strongly favour the EWMA method.The authors are from the Department of Economics and Statistics, National University of Singapore and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation respectively. The views expressed in this paper are entirely personal, and do not represent those of any institution.     

The Effects of Attitudinal and Demographic Factors on Intention to Buy Pirated CDs: The Case of Chinese Consumers

This study examines the impact of attitude toward piracy on intention to buy pirated CDs using Chinese samples. Attitude toward piracy is measured by a multi-item scale that has been shown to have a consistent factor structure with four distinct components, namely, social cost of piracy, anti-big business attitude, social benefit of dissemination, and ethical belief. Our findings reveal that social benefit of dissemination and anti-big business attitude have a positive relationship with intention to buy pirated CDs while social cost of piracy and ethical belief have a negative relationship. Among these components, ethical belief tends to most strongly predict intention to buy pirated CDs. Demographic variables such as gender and age also help explain the respondents' intention to buy pirated CDs. In addition, those respondents with experience of buying pirated CDs would tend to be more likely to buy pirated CDs than those without such experience. The results are discussed with a view to helping copyright businesses to effectively suppress piracy, and directions for future research are suggested.     

The information flow and market efficiency between the U.S. and Chinese aluminum and copper futures markets

This study examines the information flow and market efficiency between the metallurgical futures markets of the United States and China over a ten‐year span from 1999 to 2009. There were structural breaks in the aluminum and copper futures price series for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) between 2006 and 2008. The New York and Shanghai markets are cointegrated, indicating an equilibrium relationship between the two markets. Trading strategies are implemented to explore the error‐correction process. The overall results show that U.S. and Shanghai futures prices are closely related and both markets are comparably efficient on a daily basis. The U.S. market does not appear to be more efficient than the Chinese market in incorporating information into prices. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Creating a scale for assessing socially sustainable tourism

As destinations absorb ever increasing number of visitors, destination managers become progressively more concerned about the longer term viability of tourism from a resident's perspective. However, few studies have examined the application of real-time social sustainability within tourism, particularly how to measure impacts on social sustainability. This study outlines the development of a valid and reliable scale – the Scale of Social Sustainability (SSS) – for tourism that provides an assessment of social sustainability in destination settings. A 10-step procedure was developed drawing upon the related literature. A telephone poll-based survey generated 1839 valid responses from Hong Kong residents. Hong Kong's growing popularity as a destination provides a rich array of host–guest conflict situations. Dimensionality was identified using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Construct validity, reliability, and stability were assessed, and found good, showing that the scale could be used by other destinations worldwide. The theoretical and managerial implications of the scale are discussed, including options for annual surveys giving policy-makers alerts before situations worsen. Detailed host resident viewpoints and the large scale of the survey can help local residents be informed about tourism development and better involved in the policy formation process.     

Modeling no-shows,cancellations, overbooking,and walk-ins in restaurant revenue management

Few studies have examined overbooking in the restaurant industry. The authors observed the business situation in a restaurant in Hong Kong over 2 years, noted how demand exceeded supply on a regular basis, and analyzed the reservation data. The reservation data were used to estimate the no-show/cancellation probability and walk-ins for lunch and dinner on different days of the week, to illustrate the model, and to arrive at the optimal booking limits. A conceptual model was developed which would take into consideration the business situation, no-shows, cancellations, and walk-ins to determine the booking limit for maximizing the expected total revenue.     

Why Do Insiders Sell Shares Following IPO Lockups?

We examine long run returns subsequent to the lockup expiration of firms having gone public. We find that returns are negatively associated with abnormal selling by senior executives but unrelated to selling by other insiders. Our results suggest that even though lockup expirations provide an initial opportunity for insiders to diversify their holdings by selling a firm's shares, sales by senior executives are still motivated in part by private information. Sales by other insiders, on the other hand, are consistent with portfolio diversification.     

Analyst responses to stock‐index adjustments: Evidence from MSCI Taiwan Index additions

Using data from MSCI Taiwan Index adjustments, we study analyst responses to stock additions from 1999 to 2007. The empirical results show that the magnitudes of changes in analysts' earnings-per-share forecasts are similar to those of their two benchmarks for new additions to the index. Therefore, in our sample we find no significant information effect from the additions. We also find that the absolute forecast errors made by analysts are smaller for new additions and those foreign analysts are more accurate than local analysts. This finding demonstrates that new additions to the index exhibit significant performance improvements.     

The pricing of firms with expected losses/profits: The role of January

We examine the role of January in the relation between expected losses/profits and future stock returns. We predict and find that the relation between expected losses/profits and future returns reverses from the usual positive relation in non‐January months to a negative one in January. The reverse January relation is consistent across sample years, is observed in the United States and international markets, and is incremental to other variables associated with January returns. At least part of the reverse January relation is explained by tax‐loss selling. Further analysis shows that the reverse January relation results in a temporary price drift away from fundamental value. In other words, we find that abnormal positive (negative) future returns do not always indicate past under(over)valuation. Overall, our results illustrate the importance of controlling for the effect of January when examining how investors price expected losses/profits.     

What Accounts for the Differences in Rent-Price Ratio and Turnover Rate? A Search-and-Matching Approach

We build an on-the-house search model and show that two frequently used metrics for the housing market, the rent-to-price ratio (or rental yield) and the turnover rate, are jointly determined in equilibrium. We, therefore, estimate a simultaneous equations system on matched sale-rental pairs, as a housing unit cannot be owner-occupied and renter-occupied at the same time. We confirm that a higher turnover rate is associated with a lower rental yield. We also identify a form of “dichotomy” in empirical determinants of rental yields and turnover rates at the estate level: the demographic structure and past returns affect an estate’s turnover rate, while popularity, human capital, mortgage burdens, and long-run rent growth determine its rental yield. The robustness of our results is established through a series of tests. Our popularity index for 130 estates in Hong Kong, estate rankings, and the brand premia of major real estate developers may carry independent interests.