Imaginable surprise in global change science

Decisionmakers at all scales (individuals, firms, and local, national, and international governmental organizations) are concerned about reducing their vulnerability to (or the likelihood of) unexpected events, 'surprises.' After briefly and selectively reviewing the literature on uncertainty and surprise, we adopt a definition of 'surprise' that does not include the strict requirement that it apply to a wholly unexpected outcome, but rather recognizes that many events are often anticipated by some, even if not most observers. Thus, we define 'imaginable surprise' as events or processes that depart from the expectations of some definable community. Therefore, what gets labelled as 'surprise' depends on the extent to which what happens departs from community expectations and on the salience of the problem. We offer a typology of surprise that distinguishes imaginable surprises from risk and uncertainty, and develops several kinds of impediments to overcoming ignorances. These range from the need for more 'normal science' to phenomenological impediments (e.g., inherentunpredictability in some chaotic systems) to epistemological ignorance (e.g., ideological blocks to reducing ignorance). Based on the input of some two dozen scholars at an Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Workshop in 1994 *, we construct two tables in which participants offer many possible 'imaginable surprises' in the global change context, as well as their potential salience for creating unexpectedly high or low carbon dioxide emissions. Improving the anticipation of surprises is an interdisciplinary enterprise that should offer a sceptical welcoming of outlier ideas and methods.     

Trade Unions and Political Participation in the European Union: Still Providing a Democratic Dividend?

Decline in electoral participation is a feature of many Western democracies. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between trade union membership and political participation. Workplace authority structures, trade union membership and union presence have been identified as important influences on electoral participation. Based on a survey of employees in 15 member states of the European Union, we test for a relationship between political participation, union membership and union workplace presence. The independent effect of trade union membership on political participation was found to be both significant and positive and is associated with higher levels of political activism and electoral participation. Furthermore, an institutional context that facilitates high levels of union density seems likely to have an overall positive effect on citizen participation.     

Trade liberalization, outsourcing, and the hold-up problem

This paper shows that, in a bilateral relationship where a foreign supplier has to make a relationship-specific investment but cannot enforce a complete contract, the standard hold-up problem of underinvestment is aggravated when trade incurs a tariff. In this context, we identify two new channels through which trade liberalization enhances international trade. First, lower tariffs increase the incentives of foreign suppliers to undertake cost-reducing investments. Second, lower tariffs may prompt vertical multinational integration. These indirect effects imply that responses of trade volumes to trade liberalization are greater than standard trade models suggest and help explain current trends toward foreign outsourcing and intra-firm trade.     

The wheat trap: Bread and underdevelopment in Nigeria by Gunilla Andrae and Björn Beckman Zed Books, London, UK in association with the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, Sweden, 1985, 180pp

Dambos are seasonally waterlogged areas found in the headwater zones of drainage systems or alongside streams. Their importance lies in the fact that they are widespread, and can provide grazing in the dry season as well as being moist enough to grow dry season crops without irrigation. In addition, it may be possible to use them in small-scale irrigation schemes. The author feels that their value in savanna areas is severely underrated.     

The Relationship Between Project Success and Project Efficiency

Many researchers have suggested that meeting time, scope, and budget goals, sometimes called ‘project efficiency,’ is not the comprehensive measure of project success. Broader measures of success have been recommended; however, to date, nobody has determined empirically the relationship between efficiency and overall success or indeed shown whether efficiency is important at all to overall project success. Our aim in this article is to correct that omission. Through a survey of 1,386 projects we have shown that project efficiency correlates moderately strongly to overall project success (correlation of 0.6 and R² of 0.36). Efficiency is shown through analysis to be neither the only aspect of project success nor an aspect of project success that can be ignored.     

A social welfare function characterizing competitive equilibria of incomplete financial markets

A classic characterization of competitive equilibria views them as feasible allocations maximizing a weighted sum of utilities. It has been applied to establish fundamental properties of the equilibrium notion, such as existence, determinacy, and computability. However, it fails for economies with missing financial markets.We give such a characterization for economies with a single commodity and missing financial markets, by an amended social welfare function. Its parameters capture both the relative importance of households welfare, through the classic welfare weights, as well as the disagreements among them as to the value of the missing markets.As a by-product, we identify the dimension of the set of interior equilibrium allocations.     

Multinationals and human resource practices in Ireland: a rejection of the 'new conformance thesis': a reply

This paper reports on a study of 398 people employed in two UK service organizations: a hospital and two divisions of a high street bank. The main purpose of the study was to determine the degree to which dispositional factors (predisposition to trust and trait anxiety) and situational factors (seven aspects of the job environment) predicted a person's reported trust in their managers. Two types of managers were investigated: a person's immediate line manager and ‘senior managers in their industry’. It was hypothesized that the dispositional factors would have a greater influence on trust in managers in the industry and that situational factors would have a greater influence on trust in one's immediate line manager. The first hypothesis was supported, but the second was not. It was found that trust in both types of managers was best predicted by a combination of general disposition to trust (not trait anxiety) and situational factors: five of the seven situational factors had a role in predicting intention to trust. This reflects the complexity involved in predicting trust at work and the managerial challenge of creating a trusting culture.     

Can Banks Self‐Regulate? Voluntary Agreements,Intrinsic Motivation and Games

This article argues that lessons on how to achieve a sustainable financial system can be learnt from the work done on sustainable commons (on common‐pool resources – CPRs – where there is no ‘tragedy of the commons’). Existing approaches to financial regulation may not give proper attention to available solutions. The article proposes that innovative solutions could be tested using experimental methods commonly used in CPRs: repeat run, feedback driven games.