DROUGHT AND POPULATION MOBILITY IN RURAL ETHIOPIA

Significant attention has focused on the possibility that climate change will displace large populations in the developing world, but few multivariate studies have investigated climate-induced migration. We use event history methods and a unique longitudinal dataset from the rural Ethiopian highlands to investigate the effects of drought on population mobility over a ten-year period. The results indicate that men's labor migration increases with drought and that land-poor households are most vulnerable. However, marriage-related moves by women also decrease with drought. These findings suggest a hybrid narrative of environmentally-induced migration that recognizes multiple dimensions of adaptation to environmental change.     

Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis

This paper investigates contagion between bank and sovereign default risk in Europe over the period 2007–2012. We define contagion as excess correlation, i.e. correlation between banks and sovereigns over and above what is explained by common factors, using CDS spreads at the bank and at the sovereign level. Moreover, we investigate the determinants of contagion by analyzing bank-specific as well as country-specific variables and their interaction. Using the EBA’s disclosure of sovereign exposures of banks, we provide empirical evidence that three contagion channels are at work: a guarantee channel, an asset holdings channel and a collateral channel. We find that banks with a weak capital buffer, a weak funding structure and less traditional banking activities are particularly vulnerable to risk spillovers. At the country level, the debt ratio is the most important driver of contagion. Furthermore, the impact of government interventions on contagion depends on the type of intervention, with outright capital injections being the most effective measure in reducing spillover intensity.     

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis

The paper investigates whether Indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks ("monsoons"), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia's currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. The paper also finds evidence of contagion in the stock market.     

The Development of International Industry Clusters: A Complexity Theory Approach

Recent research on networks and clusters as distributive systems of knowledge is drawing on complexity theory as a way of explaining the knowledge processes involved in these organizational forms. It appears that complexity theory and its component concepts, such as coevolution and self-organization, can offer some meaningful insights into, and possible explanations for, knowledge phenomena associated with networks and clusters. Using a case study approach, this paper explores the development of a New Zealand based industry cluster from early formation to international expansion, with a particular focus on the creation and dissemination of knowledge within the cluster. The observations are reported and discussed in the context of complexity theory, drawing particularly on coevolutionary principles. It is suggested that these approaches provide a useful way of understanding the process of industry cluster development and the dynamics associated with international expansion.     

Perceptions of service delivery and happiness

An important task for students of development is to monitor progress in bringing basic services to all South Africans, one of the major objectives of the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP). This article reports on a subjective indicator study which began in February 1995, nine months after the April 1994 elections. The study, commissioned by Information Update, a Human Sciences Research Council research publication, inquired into personal happiness and assessments of local public services including access to water, education, electricity, health care, roads and transport. Over 5 700 South Africans were polled during 1995 in three nationally representative sample surveys. Secondary data analysis showed that perceived improvements to local services were closely associated with increases in happiness among all sectors of the population, including rural dwellers and the poor. The article discusses the policy implications of this finding for future voting behaviour and efficient local government.     

Mutual fund advertising: Should investors take notice?

This research investigates the relationship between advertising, quality, and price in the mutual fund market, considering both equity and fixed income funds. The research considers these relationships based on the results for a time period following the advertisement. Given the complexity of the mutual fund purchase decision for investors, this research provides an initial investigation into whether investors can infer mutual fund quality and price from the presence of mutual fund advertising. Post-advertising period results show a negative relationship between advertising and fund quality, indicating that previously advertised funds exhibit weaker performance than nonadvertised funds. During the post-advertisement period, both equity and fixed income funds exhibit lower expenses (ie, price) than nonadvertised funds. These research findings and implications for theory are discussed.     

Accompaniment,Workplace Representation and Disciplinary Outcomes in British Workplaces — Just a Formality?

The Workplace Employment Relations Survey 2004 provides data that, for the first time, measure the extent to which workforce representation is part and parcel of grievance and disciplinary processes in British workplaces. This article explores the impact of the introduction of the statutory right to accompaniment at grievance and disciplinary hearings on rates of disciplinary sanctions, dismissals and employment tribunal applications. It concludes that there is little evidence to suggest that either the right to accompaniment or the operation of formal grievance and disciplinary procedures moderates disciplinary outcomes. Instead, it argues that trade union and employee representatives may be influential in facilitating the resolution of workplace disputes.