Data and Dogma: The Great Indian Poverty Debate

What happened to poverty in India in the 1990s has been fiercelydebated, both politically and statistically. The debate hasrun parallel to the wider debate about globalization and povertyin the 1990s and is also an important part of that debate. Theeconomic reforms of the early 1990s in India were followed byrates of economic growth that were high by historical standards.The effects on poverty remain controversial, however. The officialnumbers published by the government of India, showing an accelerationin the rate of poverty reduction from 36 percent of the populationin 1993/94 to 26 percent in 1999/2000, have been challengedfor showing both too little and too much poverty reduction.The various claims have often been frankly political, but thereare also many important statistical issues. The debate, reviewedin this article, provides an excellent example of how politicsand statistics interact in an important, largely domestic debate.Although there is no consensus on what happened to poverty inIndia in the 1990s, there is good evidence both that povertyfell and that the official estimates of poverty reduction aretoo optimistic, particularly for rural India. The issues coveredin this article, although concerned with the measurement ofpoverty in India, have wide international relevance—discrepanciesbetween surveys and national accounts, the effects of questionnairedesign, reporting periods, survey nonresponse, repair of imperfectdata, choice of poverty lines, and interplay between statisticsand politics.      

FOUR CHARACTERIZATIONS OF CONSTRAINED PARETO EFFICIENCY IN CONTINUUM ECONOMIES WITH WIDESPREAD EXTERNALITIES*

In continuum economies, widespread externalities are those over which each individual has negligible control. Nash-Walrasian equilibria with lump-sum transfers are defined, and their existence proved. They are then characterized by the property of “f-constrained Pareto efficiency” for finite coalitions. More general “private good” Nash-Walrasian equilibria are characterized as private-good constrained-Pareto efficient. Introducing complete Pigou taxes or subsidies leads to equilibria that are characterized by constrained efficiency and f-constrained efficiency for given levels of the widespread externalities. But full efficiency requires resolving the public-good problem of determining those aggregate externalities or, equivalently, of setting appropriate Pigou prices.     

Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the symmetric case

Summary. Suppose a large economy with individual risk is modeled by a continuum of pairwise exchangeable random variables (i.i.d., in particular). Then the relevant stochastic process is jointly measurable only in degenerate cases. Yet in Monte Carlo simulation, the average of a large finite draw of the random variables converges almost surely. Several necessary and sufficient conditions for such “Monte Carlo convergence” are given. Also, conditioned on the associated Monte Carlo -algebra, which represents macroeconomic risk, individual agents' random shocks are independent. Furthermore, a converse to one version of the classical law of large numbers is proved. Received: October 29, 2001; revised version: April 24, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Part of this work was done when Yeneng Sun was visiting SITE at Stanford University in July 2001. An early version of some results was included in a presentation to Tom Sargent's macro workshop at Stanford. We are grateful to him and Felix Kübler in particular for their comments. And also to Marcos Lisboa for several discussions with Peter Hammond, during which the basic idea of the paper began to take shape. Correspondence to: P.J. Hammond     

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis

The paper investigates whether Indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks ("monsoons"), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia's currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. The paper also finds evidence of contagion in the stock market.     

States and Markets: The Advantage of an Early Start

In this paper, an index of the depth of experience with state-level institutions, or state antiquity, is derived for a large set of countries. We show that state antiquity is significantly correlated with measures of political stability and institutional quality, with income per capita, and with the rate of economic growth between 1960 and 1995. State antiquity contributes significantly to the explanation of differences in growth rates, explaining half of the differences in growth rates between countries like China and Mauritania, which are located at the two ends of the spectrum. It is also a good instrument for social infrastructure, which explains cross-country differences in worker productivity.     

Liquidity of secondary capital markets: Allocative efficiency and the maturity composition of the capital stock

Summary We investigate the function of liquid financial markets for the allocation of productive capital. We consider an economy where agents endogenously choose among capital production technologies with differing gestation periods. Long-gestation capital investments must be rolled-over in secondary capital markets. The use of such investment technologies therefore requires the support of liquid financial markets. We investigate how changes in the liquidity of these markets (i.e., in the costs of transacting) affect (a) the choice of capital production technology, (b) per capita income and the per capita capital stock, (c) the level of financial market activity, (d) the real return on savings and (e) welfare in a steady state equilibrium. Improvements in financial market liquidity raise rates of return on savings, and favor the increased use of long gestation capital investments. However, such improvements may or may not lead to higher levels of real activity or steady state welfare. We describe conditions under which various outcomes occur.We have benefited from the comments of seminar participants at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the International Monetary Fund, Berkeley, Boston College, Boston University, Brown, Chicago, Illinois, Miami, UC San Diego, Simon Fraser, University of British Columbia, University of Washington, Yale, the Canadian Macro Study Group Meetings, the Murrary S. Johnson Conference (University of Texas/Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), and the Far West Rotating Economic Theory Conference. We would also like to thank John Bryant, Andreas Hornstein, Dan Peled, Bill Schworm, Karl Shell, Bart Taub and an anonymous referee for their comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

Comparison of medical costs and healthcare resource utilization of post-menopausal women with HR+/HER2− metastatic breast cancer receiving everolimus-based therapy or chemotherapy: a retrospective claims database analysis

Objective:

To analyze medical costs and healthcare resource utilization (HRU) associated with everolimus-based therapy or chemotherapy among post-menopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive, human-epidermal-growth-factor-receptor-2-negative (HR+/HER2?) metastatic breast cancer (mBC).

Methods:

Patients with HR+/HER2? mBC who discontinued a non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor and began a new line of treatment with everolimus-based therapy or chemotherapy (index therapy/index date) between July 20, 2012 and April 30, 2014 were identified from two large claims databases. All-cause, BC-related, and adverse event (AE)-related medical costs (in 2014 USD) and all-cause HRU per patient per month (PPPM) were analyzed for both treatment groups across patients’ first four lines of therapies for mBC. Adjusted differences in costs and HRU between the everolimus and chemotherapy treatment group were estimated pooling all lines and using multivariable generalized linear models, accounting for difference in patient characteristics.

Results:

A total of 3298 patients were included: 902 everolimus-treated patients and 2636 chemotherapy-treated patients. Compared to chemotherapy, everolimus was associated with significantly lower all-cause (adjusted mean difference?=?$3455, p?<?0.01) and BC-related ($2510, p?<?0.01) total medical costs, with inpatient ($1344, p?<?0.01) and outpatient costs ($1048, p?<?0.01) as the main drivers for cost differences. Everolimus was also associated with significantly lower AE-related medical costs ($1730, p?<?0.01), as well as significantly lower HRU (emergency room incidence rate ratio [IRR]?=?0.83; inpatient IRR?=?0.74; inpatient days IRR?=?0.65; outpatient IRR?=?0.71; BC-related outpatient IRR?=?0.57; all p?<?0.01).

Conclusions:

This retrospective claims database analysis of commercially-insured patients with HR+/HER2? mBC in the US showed that everolimus was associated with substantial all-cause, BC-related, and AE-related medical cost savings and less utilization of healthcare resources relative to chemotherapy.     

Correlates of first‐brand loyalty

A mail survey of British supermarket customers shows that the factor most strongly associated with claimed brand loyalty is household income Brand loyal customers also claim to spend more, are more concerned about quality and less about price, are slightly more store loyal and make more use of large out‐of‐town stores Brand loyalty is also related to age; those aged under 25 years and 65 + years are less loyal

There is little difference between those who are primarily loyal to store brands and those who are primarily loyal to manufacturer brands, and there is little evidence that store patronage is raised by loyalty to store brands