Public Research Policy for Today's Agricultural Biotech Research Industry

While the public sector has historically played a very significant role in the direct provision of agricultural research, the appropriate role of government in the future is no longer apparent in a world with intellectual property rights (IPRs) and a concentrated privatized biotech research industry. This study develops a search/imperfect competition framework to examine the public role. The analysis shows that private firms have inadequate incentives to invest in research for varietal improvement relative to the social optimum even with completely enforceable IPRs. A government subsidy on research output can efficiently increase the amount of applied research to the socially optimal point. Government subsidy of the research cost can have the same effect on research and development expenditure. Expanding direct applied public research increases social welfare but cannot achieve a social optimum, as it reduces the already limited incentives for private firms to invest. Finally, in situations where basic research is underprovided, government should address these market failures as part of an optimal research policy. Overall, the analysis suggests that there is a role for public support of applied research, but this role is no longer direct public involvement in applied research where IPRs are well established.     

The Local Economic Impacts of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan in Saskatchewan

The North American Waterfowl Management Plan seeks to improve wildlife habitat and increase waterfowl numbers through voluntary transactions with farmers to modify their land management practices. The impact of modified land use practices on the incomes of participating farmers and the regional economy are estimated. The compensation offered under the Plan for modification of land use is determined to adequately offset any loss in participants' income. Income losses to the community due to reduced farm input sales were more than offset by the increase in NAWMP direct expenditures (excluding compensation payments). Distributional effects and externalities must be recognized and monitored to ensure success of the program     

Reviews

POLICIES FOR TRAINING AND THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED.

Corney, M. 1990: The Black Hole in Britain's Training System; Training for People in Employment: Robinson, P. 1989: Stagflation; Lessons from Other Places; and Meacher, M. 1990: Adopting the Employment Principle: A Green Paper. All published by the Campaign for Work. The price of the first is £4.00, the second £5.00 and the third £3.50.

US LESSONS IN EVALUATION.

Bingham, R. D., Hill, E. W. and White, S. B. (eds) 1990: Financing Economic Development: An Institutional Response. Newbury Park, California and London: Sage Publications, £33.25 cloth, £16.75 paper.

LESSONS FROM THE USA.

Hambleton, R. 1990: Urban Government in the 1990s: Lessons from the USA,

Occasional Paper No. 35, Bristol: School for Advanced Urban Studies. No price stated.

SKILLS TRAINING.

CBI, 1989: Managing the Skills Gap. London: CBI, £10.00 paper; Report of the Vocational Education and Training Task Force, 1989: Towards a Skills Revolution. London: CBI, £20.00 paper; Association of London Authorities, 1990: Training for London. London: ALA.     

Shifting the goal posts for design management in capital goods projects: 'design for maintainability'

Two case studies of capital goods projects, both of which were faced with new forms of demand for their products, are reported in this paper. In both cases, the contracting organisations involved were adjusting to new customer requirements for the long-term provision of the services associated with the capital goods they normally produced, rather than for the capital goods themselves. While both contracting organisations recognised the need to re-focus their equipment design efforts, to reflect the need for long-term service reliability (both contracting organisations were tied to penalties associated with agreed service levels), they nevertheless responded differently to this challenge, and their differing responses reflected the differing natures of the extended networks which comprised both projects and the organisational architectures in which the projects were themselves embedded. The paper explores the differing opportunities and barriers to the management of design in complex projects presented by these two case studies. In so doing it points to the conclusion that successful design management in complex projects can depend upon the successful management of the (multiple) contexts in which design takes place.     

Are there nonlinearities in short‐term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short‐term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short‐term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short‐term interest rate. Out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of one‐factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.     

REGIME-SWITCHING IN AUSTRALIAN SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES

This paper applies a generalized regime-switching (GRS) model of the short-term interest rate to Australian data. The model allows the short rate to exhibit both mean reversion and conditional heteroscedasticity and nests the popular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and regime-switching specifications. It is shown that empirical estimates of many popular interest rate models provide curious results which imply that innovations to the short rate process are extremely persistent, and that the short rate is potentially non-stationary. The source of these curious results, which are also present in US and European interest rates, is identified in the context of the GRS model, which is shown, via specification and forecasting tests, to capture the features of Australian short-term interest rate data better than existing models. The stochastic process of short-term interest rates in Australia is compared with evidence from the US and Europe, highlighting a number of important differences.