REGIME-SWITCHING IN AUSTRALIAN SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES

This paper applies a generalized regime-switching (GRS) model of the short-term interest rate to Australian data. The model allows the short rate to exhibit both mean reversion and conditional heteroscedasticity and nests the popular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and regime-switching specifications. It is shown that empirical estimates of many popular interest rate models provide curious results which imply that innovations to the short rate process are extremely persistent, and that the short rate is potentially non-stationary. The source of these curious results, which are also present in US and European interest rates, is identified in the context of the GRS model, which is shown, via specification and forecasting tests, to capture the features of Australian short-term interest rate data better than existing models. The stochastic process of short-term interest rates in Australia is compared with evidence from the US and Europe, highlighting a number of important differences.     

Soviet agricultural prices,rent and land cadastrest

Progress toward decentralized agriculture in which entrepreneurial initiative of Soviet farm managers could be given fuller range is impeded by the double function of Soviet agricultural prices: as factors affecting input and output decisions and as extractors of land rent. Claims that the Soviet land cadastre inhibits the setting of uniform marginal-cost prices are here examined and found wanting. The real culprits are special interest opposition, ignorance of the potential role of prices, and inability to achieve the necessary complementary reforms, which can be traced to shortcomings in Soviet agricultural economic research and education.     

Rezensionen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The theory of international trade among industrial Nations

Zusammenfassung Die Theorie des internationalen Handels zwischen Industriel?ndern. — Ein gro▾er Prozentsatz des internationalen Handels der Industriel?nder wird unter den Industriel?ndern abgewickelt. Dieser Aufsatz zeigt, da▾ die Neo-Technologietheorie und die Produktdifferenzierungstheorie des internationalen Handels von Industriegütern komplement?r sind. Sie werden hier zur Theorie der ?Linder-Güter? zusammengeführt. Diese Theorie wiederum mu▾ — wie dargelegt wird — in eine mehrdimensionale Faktorproportionentheorie integriert werden, wenn sie die Handelsstr?me zwischen den Industriel?ndern erkl?ren soll.

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R ésumé La théorie du commerce international parmi les nations industrielles. —Un grand pourcentage du commerce international total des pays industriels s'écoule avec des autres pays industriels. Cet article démontre que la néo-théorie de technologie et la théorie des biens différenciés du commerce international avec des biens manufacturiers sont des théories complémentaires. Elles sont fusionnées dans une théorie composée des ?biens Linder?. L'auteur démontre qu'il faut intégrer cette théorie avec une théorie multi-dimensionelle des proportions des facteurs si elle devrait expliquer les structures du commerce parmi les nations industrielles.

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Resumen La teoría del comercio internacional entre naciones industrializadas. — Un gran porcentaje del comercio internacional entre países industrializados se efectúa con otros países industrializados. Este artículo muestra que la neo-teoría tecnologia y la teoría de bienes diferenciados del comercio internacional en productos manufacturados son complementarias. Ellas se fusionan en una teoría compuesta de ?bienes de Linder?. Se muestra que esta teoría necesita ser integrada con una teoría de proporción de factores multidimensional si es que ha de considerar los patrones del comercio entre países industrializados.

     

The Wheat War of 1994

Following the signing of the 1989 Canada–United States Free Trade Agreement, sales of Canadian wheat to the United States grew rapidly. This resulted in a series of trade disputes, culminating in an investigation by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) into the impacts of U.S. imports of Canadian wheat on the U.S. wheat farm program. A USITC finding of "material interference" would have led to a recommendation to implement tariffs or quantitative restrictions against Canadian wheat under Section 22 of the U.S. farm program legislation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) claimed such material interference, but the U.S. flour millers, pasta makers and grain handlers, along with Canadian grain industry interests, testified that the true effects of imports are in the order of one–tenth of the effects claimed by the USDA. USITC staff analysis led to intermediate estimates of effects. This study explores the impacts of Canada–U.S. wheat trade on U.S. wheat prices and program costs, explains some of the differences in measured effects, and reports the outcome of the dispute.     

Does the sophistication of use of unemployment insurance evolve with experience?

Abstract The subject of this paper is the repeat use of UI/EI benefits in Canada. The first objective is to investigate empirically the pattern of adjustment that UI users exhibit over a multiple claim horizon. Our secondary objective is to investigate a behavioural channel that might potentially underlie observed adjustment effects, namely, individual learning effects. We estimate an econometric model of how certain features of their claims change as they file subsequent claims. We find strong empirical patterns suggesting that there does appear to be some sort of an adjustment process; beneficiaries tend to approach a desired value for these particular facets of their UI claims. There appears to be some process of growing sophistication of UI use – which some might label ‘gaming the system’– reflecting the adjustment of claims and the concomitant employment patterns to the provisions and rules of the regime. We also uncover evidence in favour of the existence of individual learning effects.