A review of: “PLANNING THEORY” By Preston P. LeBreton & Dale A. Henning Prentice-Hall,Inc., Englewood Cliffs,N. J. 1961 357 pp.$9

Western benefit-cost analysis is assumed a viable concept for planning economic development. Such an analysis relies heavily upon a theoretical base which bears little relationship to the overall context of development decision-making. This article attempts to denote the factors that distort the theoretical results of benefit-cost analysis. The structure of the economy is shown to obviate the direct applicability of such models; and finally, the values inherent in the Western benefit-cost approach are shown to rest in the economic context where they were formulated with hidden costs for underdeveloped economies.     

Optimal hedging of variance derivatives

We examine the optimal hedging of derivatives written on realised variance, focussing principally on variance swaps (VS) (but, en route, also considering skewness swaps), when the underlying stock price has discontinuous sample paths, i.e. jumps. In general, with jumps in the underlying, the market is incomplete and perfect hedging is not possible. We derive easily implementable formulae which give optimal (or nearly optimal) hedges for VS under very general dynamics for the underlying stock which allow for multiple jump processes and stochastic volatility. We illustrate how, for parameters which are realistic for options on the S&P 500 and Nikkei-225 stock indices, our methodology gives significantly better hedges than the standard log-contract replication approach of Neuberger and Dupire which assumes continuous sample paths. Our analysis seeks to emphasise practical implications for financial institutions trading variance derivatives.     

Refining the real estate pricing model

Investment theory dictates that capitalisation (cap) rates for freehold real estate should be determined by the risk-free nominal rate of return plus the risk premium (RP) less the expected growth rate, with an allowance for depreciation. However, importing the concept of the RP from the capital markets fails to guide investors through the complexities of the asset, or enable exploration of purchaser preferences and behaviour. A refined pricing model for real estate is proposed, based on a concept termed a risk scale, to distinguish between macro (market) and micro (stock) determinants of risk and growth within the RP. This pricing model is estimated for a major global investment market, using a cross-sectional inter-temporal framework, with a data-set of 497 transactions in the London office sector over 2010 Q2–2012 Q3. Average cap rates are estimated at just over 5%, with asset-specific attributes dominating yield determination, with submarket quality and tenant covenant most important; and unexpired term insignificant, surprising during the ‘flight to safety’ characterising the period. International investors bought at lower cap rates, despite the ongoing economic and financial instability of the study period. Improving understanding of pricing behaviour and market transparency is important and may be advanced through the pricing model.     

经济租金和物价上涨与通胀的治理

在刚性需求条件下,缺乏供给弹性的商品存在着可观的经济租金,而过量流动性为金融资本竞相追逐经济租金提供了货币基础,这是此轮物价结构性上涨的根源所在。若相关商品供求弹性没有得到有效改善,物价结构性上涨在中长期内将是一种常态,此时单纯的回收流动性等总量调控措施只具有短期性的效果。今后,宏观政策的着眼点应当由以需求管理为主转向以供给管理和需求管理并重,只有通过双管齐下,才能从根本上缓解结构性通胀对宏观经济运行的不利影响。     

活跃境内卢布交易 借重对俄特色优势

近年来,哈尔滨银行挖掘自身地缘优势,探索发展卢布业务,在卢布的兑换、结算和买卖等领域都有长足进展,形成了较为鲜明的对俄特色。自人民币兑卢布交易在全国银行间外汇市场挂牌以来,哈尔滨银行严格履行做市商义务,发展柜台卢布业务,开拓境外卢布对人民币购售业务,努力扩大人民币对卢布交易客盘基础,并采取培植对俄客户群体等多种战略措施,积极推动银行间外汇市场卢布交易量增长。     

The Public-Choice Approach to Dismantling Big Government

Public-choice analysis of the growth of government suggests that the size of the state could be reduced in the same way thai it has swollen: political coalitions on specific policies to overcome other vested interests. Fred L. Smith Jr of the Competitive Enterprise Institute in Washington, describes irs work to illustrate how it implements the ideas produced by academic orientated institutes.