论“四势群体”和国际力量重组的时代特点

国际力量对比正朝着有利于以新兴大国为代表的发展中国家的方向发展,这种力量的变化史无前例地冲击着西方国家对世界事务的主导权。国际力量重组导致了得势、守势、失势和弱势这一四势群体的形成。四势群体正在从各自和共同的立场出发应对全球性问题,这一过程极大地丰富了和平与发展的时代性内涵,赋予了地区合作和次区域合作建构国际体系的历史使命。四势群体仍处于动态发展的时期,其内部和相互间会因时因事而做适当的调整和相应的排列组合,新兴大国乘势而上则是发展的大趋势。中国在走向世界强国的道路上还需要将新兴大国群体作为自身发展的战略依托,从而争取在世界事务中拥有更大的话语权和主导权。在和平环境下进行国际力量的重组以及实现国际体系的转型,这将是一个长期的、复杂的和曲折的过程,国际社会对此应有充分的思想和物质准备。     

Property Taxation, Capitalization, and the Economic Implications of Raising Property Taxes

This study applies a hedonic pricing model to provide further empirical evidence whether, in the spirit of Tiebout (Journal of Political Economy 64(1):416?C424, 1956), Oates (Journal of Political Economy 77(6):957?C971, 1969), and Tullock (Journal of Political Economy 79(5):913?C918, 1971), property taxes in particular have been capitalized into housing prices in the city of Savannah, Georgia housing market. There were sufficient data in this context to study a total of 2,888 single-family houses for the six-year period 2000?C2005; 591 of these houses were located in the Savannah Historic Landmark District. Estimating the model in semi-log form reveals (after allowing for a variety of factors, including 12 spatial variables, four of which are de facto Tiebout type variables) that the natural log of the real sales price of a single-family house in the city of Savannah environment was in fact negatively affected by the city and county property tax level. This study is prompted by the fact that city and county governments are facing serious financial challenges and are searching for viable revenue sources. Increasing property taxes is one of the potential revenue sources being considered by elected officials. In providing current evidence on the effects of property tax in particular and on the Tiebout hypothesis in general, we seek to alert city and state governments of the potential consequences and perils of property tax hikes.     

The implied internal rate of return in conventional residual valuations of development sites

Explicit discounted cash flow methods are used in many countries to assess the value of real estate investments or their likely rate of return given a particular price. These are typically supplemented by simpler models for the purpose of estimating market value, leading to debate about different approaches. A parallel situation exists in the case of UK development sites: both cash flow appraisals and simpler residual valuations are used to assess site values. Yet debate here has been limited, even though traditional residual valuations involve steps that depart from project appraisal practices used in mainstream capital budgeting. We explore the relationship between the profit and interest allowances used in traditional residual valuations and the internal rates of return that they appear to imply. Published residual valuations typically allow for profit through use of a simple proportionate relationship between required profit and the cost or final value of a scheme. They also show limited variation in their profit assumptions, but this implies large differences in expected IRRs. Simulated examples then illustrate the implications of applying standard profit-on-cost rates to schemes of different lengths and with different levels of land value. Findings for project duration, in particular, are noteworthy since they indicate that lower IRRs are implied for longer projects, though this relationship is not necessarily rational.     

对企业拓展东南亚市场的建议

对希望在东南亚市场有所作为的企业,我想提几点建议：首先，要认识到在中国东盟自由贸易区的建设中还有很多困难。就是东盟本身的建设也有许多困难；比如，对现行《东盟自由贸易协定》的一些条款，马来歪亚和泰国之间就产生了争执。泰国表示．在马来西亚终止汽车进口许可制度前．泰国将不会降低马来西亚汽车的进口关税。     

Consumer Acceptance of Interactive Media in Service Marketing Encounters

This study considers a number of factors that could influence consumer acceptance of interactive information systems in complex service marketing situations. Further, it investigates the potential relevance of various theoretical perspectives to research involving new communication media such as videotex and teletext. Technical characteristics of the medium, which determine its degree of interactivity, are found to affect user perceptions of the medium's ‘personalness' or ‘social presence’. Characteristics of both the medium and the user are found to affect consumer acceptance of an interactive medium in a financial services setting.     

Satellite Lore

Ultimately, any decisions on controls for the new broadcasting technologies of tomorrow, and in particular for satellite broadcasting, will be politically inspired. This paper points out, however, that the opportunities for unilateral regulations by any of the 10 EEC Member States are, at least in theory, subject to those countries' obligations under the Treaty of Rome. The paper considers the case law already available from the European Court of Justice, the guardian of the Treaty of Rome's provisions, in the three main areas of concern for satellite broadcasting: copyright, advertising controls and public morality. From the evidence available the authors draw some personal conclusions and make some suggestions as to how the issues might be resolved.     

The Australian Business Cycle: Joe Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?

We address the question of whether asymmetry in the business cycle and asymmetry in the persistence of negative versus positive shocks characterises Australian output growth. Using nonlinear time series models we provide some evidence consistent with the idea that Australian output growth is characterised by three distinct phases: contractions, high-growth recovery periods and 'normal' or moderate growth periods. This implies that Australian output fluctuations have a significant transitory component and is supportive of the 'output-gaps' view and 'plucking' model view of economic fluctuations. In contrast to recent evidence for the US and Canada however, we find that Australian GDP growth does not exhibit important asymmetries in the responses of output growth to positive and negative shocks.