An empirical study of inbound tourism demand in China: a copula-GARCH approach

This paper proposes new models for analyzing the volatility and dependence of monthly tourist arrivals to China applying a copula-GARCH approach. A desegregation of the top six origins of China inbound tourists from the period January 1994 to December 2013 is used in this study. The empirical results show that there is a strong seasonal effect in all cases and ?????? some habit persistence on monthly tourist arrival growth rate for South Korea, Russia, the United States (US), and Malaysia. Second, the volatilities of arrival growth rates to China are impacted significantly by their own short- and long-run effects, except for Russia and South Korea. Only short-run shock affects Russian arrivals while only long-run shocks are affecting South Korea arrivals. Third, the conditional dependence among different source countries is found to be positive and significant, but the conditional dependence for all considered pairs is low. Moreover, there is extreme co-movement (tail dependence) between the six major tourism source countries, suggesting the pairwise of international tourist arrivals shows a related increasing or decreasing pattern during extreme events. Implications are discussed and recommendations provided.     

Return Migration,Self‐selection and Entrepreneurship

Are return migrants more entrepreneurial? Existing literature has not addressed how estimating the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self‐selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper exploits exogenous variation provided by the civil war and the incidence of agricultural plagues in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to overall negative unobservable return migrant self‐selection, which results in an under‐estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naïve’ estimator that does not control for self‐selection at both the initial migration and at the final return migration stages.     

Do central bank foreign exchange interventions affect market expectations?

The aim of this article is to study the impact of the Brazilian central bank swap interventions on the FX market from 2006 to 2013. In this period, these nontraditional interventions were the main FX instrument of the Brazilian Government. Since the central bank operates through a sequence of daily interventions in most of the period, we employ the event study method, which is appropriate to investigate cumulative impact of intervention episodes. We analyse the effects on the risk neutral distribution of BRL-USD exchange rate, which incorporates economic valuation besides the likelihoods. We investigate both changes in level and in the dynamics of the moments. Our tests indicate that interventions have little effects on the exchange rate distribution. We only find evidences of some impact on the dynamics of the mean, volatility and skewness over long horizons when the central bank takes short positions on the exchange rate.     

Information misweighting and the cross-section of stock recommendations

This paper provides evidence that analysts whose earnings forecast revisions showed signs of greater exaggeration in the past make recommendation changes that lead to lower abnormal returns than their peers. Interpreting stock recommendations as a forecast of future abnormal returns, I show that this evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that analysts who typically exaggerate or overstate the weight of their private information when issuing forecasts also do so when making recommendations. The paper also shows that past earnings forecasts provide incremental information about analysts' recommending behavior beyond that contained in past recommendations.     

Accounting and Business Economics in Spain

Economía de la Empresa (Business Economics) emerged in Spain as a distinct academic discipline in the second half of the twentieth century. In its early years, Business Economics shared common influences with Accounting, particularly ideas and theories acquired from the translation of Italian and German works on Economia Aziendale and Betriebswirtschaftslehre. However, partly because of the institutional structure of Spanish universities, the two disciplines moved apart. During the Franco regime, Spanish accounting research was quite isolated, and with the return of democracy and the move towards greater European involvement much research was devoted to issues of financial accounting harmonization and standardization. This normative research was of little interest to Business Economics researchers, who were developing analytical approaches grounded in economic theory. More recently, academics working in the two disciplines have drawn on a wider range of theoretical approaches, from empirical studies to behavioural and organizational theory and institutional economics based on agency theory and transaction cost analysis. At present, the disciplines ‘walk separately down the same road’, but the new generation of researchers has the opportunity to bring Accounting and Business Economics closer together from an intellectual and scientific point of view.     

International evidence on alternative models of the term structure of volatilities

The term structure of instantaneous volatilities (TSV) of forward rates for different monetary areas (euro, U.S. dollar and British pound) is examined using daily data from at‐the‐money cap markets. During the sample period (two and a half years), the TSV experienced severe changes both in level and shape. Two new functional forms of the instantaneous volatility of forward rates are proposed and tested within the LIBOR Market Model framework. Two other alternatives are calibrated and used as benchmarks to test the accuracy of the new models. The two new models provide more flexibility to adequately calibrate the observed cap prices, although this improved accuracy in replicating cap prices produces some instability in parameter estimates. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:653–683, 2009     

The driving forces behind China’s growth1

The main objective of this article is to disentangle the determinants of the Chinese economic growth that occurred from 1965 to 2000. We have explored, first, the time series properties of the growth rates of gross domestic product and labour productivity with an extended battery of unit‐root tests. Then, in a multivariate setting, we use the VAR model methodology to provide evidence that physical and human capital accumulation, R&D expenditure, openness and competitiveness are the main drivers of output, labour productivity and total factor productivity growth in the long run. Additionally, we also show that although China has not yet converged to its long‐run equilibrium, it is in the process of catching up. These results are more consistent with some versions of the endogenous growth models than with Solow‐type models of growth, since they support active strategies of economic policy to stimulate economic growth and catching up with more advanced economies.     

Price formation in channels of distribution with differentiated products: Theory and empirical evidence

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical study of price formation in markets where goods differ in two attributes, perceived quality of each variety, and service provided by the store where the good is sold. Price competition in the vertically differentiated market is modeled as a two-stage game where manufacturers choose the contract that determines wholesale prices, and retailers choose consumer prices. One important novelty of the paper is that it contemplates competition between brands of different quality in the same store, and competition between brands of the same quality sold at different stores. This is in fact the situation observed in the domestic detergent market and the predictions of the model can be used to guide the empirical analysis of the data available for such market in the area of Barcelona, Spain.     

Marketing Research With Telephone Surveys: Is It Time to Change?

ABSTRACT

Telephone surveys have been an important mode for collecting primary data in the marketing field in recent decades. However, the scenario of telephone coverage is changing mainly due to a massive increase in mobile phone-only usage, which can put the quality of telephone survey estimates at risk. The advance of mobile phones as the preferred telecommunication is a global phenomenon occurring in every country, although at varying speeds. This article examines the relationship between telephone coverage and the coverage bias of telephone survey estimates in the current scenario of telephone coverage across European countries. Findings reveal that the capacity for fixed-line telephone-based sampling frames to represent the overall adult population is becoming critical, especially in countries with declining fixed-line-telephone penetration rates.