Prices and output in the Mexican economy Emperical testing of alternative hypotheses

This paper derives and compares alternative formulations of price and output formation for the Mexican economy over the period 1961–1981. A structuralist type model with working capital is found to dominate its monetarist and keynesian counterparts. A breakdown of the causes of inflation is offered, and some simulations are carried out to highlight some trade-offs among real wages, the real exchange rate, real interest rates and output.     

不平等就是不健康

文森特·纳瓦罗(V icente N avarro)是约翰斯—霍普金斯大学布卢姆博格公共健康学院的教授和普姆蓓—费布拉大学(P om peiiFabra U niversity)的政治社会科学教授。同时,他还兼任国际健康服务杂志的主编。他在约翰斯—霍普金斯大学医学院2003级毕业典礼上演讲指出,“不平等就是不健康”。以下为纳瓦罗教授演讲的主要内容。“不平等就是不健康”,其原因除了不平等的加剧通常会伴随着贫困的加剧(它仅仅是部分正确的)外,更在于不平等本身就会产生这样的消极影响,即社会群体之间和个体之间的差距以及这种差距导致的社会凝聚力(cohesion)不足会…     

Neural networks for estimating Macro Asset Pricing model in football clubs

The recent crisis caused by COVID-19 directly affected consumption habits and the stability sof financial markets. In particular, the football industry has been hit hard by this pandemic and therefore has more volatile stock prices. Given this new scenario, further research is needed to accurately estimate the value of the shares of football clubs. In this paper, we estimate an asset pricing model in football clubs with different compositions of risk nature using non-linear techniques of artificial neural networks. Usually, asset pricing models have been estimated with linear methods such as ordinary least squares. Our results show a precision higher than 90% for all the estimated models, which far exceeds those shown by linear methods in the previous literature. We find that the residual represents about 40% of the variance of the price-dividend ratio. Long-term risks follow in importance, and above all, the habit component and its behaviour in the face of changes. The importance of the residual component exists due to a low correlation between the asset price and consumer behaviour, but to a much lesser extent than that shown in previous studies. The estimation carried out with artificial neural networks, both the Deep Learning methods and especially the Quantum Neural Network, opens up new possibilities to estimate more efficiently the pricing of financial assets in the football industry.     

A contribution on the nature and treatment of missing data in large market surveys

Nonresponse (or missing data) is often encountered in large-scale surveys. To enable the behavioural analysis of these data sets, statistical treatments are commonly applied to complete or remove these data. However, the correctness of such procedures critically depends on the nature of the underlying missingness generation process. Clearly, the efficacy of applying either case deletion or imputation procedures rests on the unknown missingness generation mechanism. The contribution of this article is twofold. The study is the first to propose a simple sequential method to attempt to identify the form of missingness. Second, the effectiveness of the tests is assessed by generating (experimentally) nine missing data sets by imposed missing completely at random, missing at random and not missing at random processes, with data removed.     

Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Price determination theory typically focuses on the role of monetary policy, while the role of fiscal policy is usually neglected. From a different point of view, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level, even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation targeting strategy. In this paper we try to test empirically whether the time path of the government budget in EMU countries would have affected price level determination. Our results point to the sustainability of fiscal policy in all the EMU countries but Finland, although no firm conclusions can be drawn about the prevalence of either monetary or fiscal dominance.     

International evidence on alternative models of the term structure of volatilities

The term structure of instantaneous volatilities (TSV) of forward rates for different monetary areas (euro, U.S. dollar and British pound) is examined using daily data from at‐the‐money cap markets. During the sample period (two and a half years), the TSV experienced severe changes both in level and shape. Two new functional forms of the instantaneous volatility of forward rates are proposed and tested within the LIBOR Market Model framework. Two other alternatives are calibrated and used as benchmarks to test the accuracy of the new models. The two new models provide more flexibility to adequately calibrate the observed cap prices, although this improved accuracy in replicating cap prices produces some instability in parameter estimates. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:653–683, 2009     

Does sport affect the competitiveness of European Union countries? An analysis of the degree of innovation and GDP per capita using linear and QCA models

The sport industry has experienced great growth in recent years worldwide, and especially in the European Union (EU) countries. However, despite the role that this industry can play in improving the competitiveness of these countries (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and innovation performance), no studies have been found that analyse its influence. So, the main aim of this study is, firstly, to analyse the relationship between the innovation performance and the GDP per capita of EU countries, and, secondly, to find out how sport-related indicators and different innovation-related indicators influence the innovation performance and GDP per capita of the EU countries. To this end, two different methodologies have been used: hierarchical regression models and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). A total sample of 23 EU countries have been analysed. The results show that GDP per capita and innovation performance are highly correlated in a positive and significant way (0.76; p?<?.0001), and that the variables related to sport help explain the variance of these two variables, highlighting as necessary variable in both cases the growth in the sports sector (consistency >0.90). Finally, a number of practical implications are presented that can help policy makers to improve the competitiveness of EU countries.

     

The driving forces behind China’s growth1

The main objective of this article is to disentangle the determinants of the Chinese economic growth that occurred from 1965 to 2000. We have explored, first, the time series properties of the growth rates of gross domestic product and labour productivity with an extended battery of unit‐root tests. Then, in a multivariate setting, we use the VAR model methodology to provide evidence that physical and human capital accumulation, R&D expenditure, openness and competitiveness are the main drivers of output, labour productivity and total factor productivity growth in the long run. Additionally, we also show that although China has not yet converged to its long‐run equilibrium, it is in the process of catching up. These results are more consistent with some versions of the endogenous growth models than with Solow‐type models of growth, since they support active strategies of economic policy to stimulate economic growth and catching up with more advanced economies.     

Long-term regional convergence in Mexico: A new look

This paper explores the convergence hypothesis of Mexican states with the national level and with one another from 1940 to 2015. Interpreting convergence as catching-up, we also capture other types of regular evolution, namely, invariance of the income gap over time, permanent absence of the gap, and steadily increasing gap (deterministic divergence). As a tool of econometric analysis, we use a novel model that describes convergence by asymptotically decaying trends and covers other types of evolution as particular cases. The results obtained suggest one or other type of regularity to be peculiar to roughly ca. 40% of income gaps both with the national level and between states. However, convergence is observed only in 6% to 15% of cases. Regarding convergence at the national level, an additional analysis by three 50-year subperiod shows that in many cases the type of evolution changes for the same state from one subperiod to another. Analyzing convergence between states, we find that convergence between neighboring states is more frequent than between other states; however, the effect of the neighborhood is not too strong.     

Performance persistence and its influence on money and investor flows into Spanish pension plans

This article analyzes the phenomenon of performance persistence in Spanish equity pension plans between 1999 and 2006 to determine whether plans with higher performance in one period continue obtaining higher performance in the future. It also aims to determine the influence of past performance on investor behavior in order to examine whether money and investor flows of these portfolios are affected by past performance. The results reveal the existence of short-term performance persistence and a statistically significant relationship between historical returns and investment flows.