National Papers of Interest to Economic Educators

The author argues that while advances in technology may have made long-range and long-term planning less critical, they have not made long-run decisionmaking obsolete.     

The Sensitivity of the General Price Level to Changes in the Price of Crude Oil

There are many direct and indirect effects of changing crude oil prices on the inflation rate, so it is not surprising that there are different views about the resulting effects on the general price level and also on other aspects of the general economy. This study, estimates the direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on the economy-wide rate of inflation, which then has effects on spending and producing decisions. However, in this forum, we do not try to estimate the full indirect effects on the level of economic activity, such as effects on real GDP. JEL Classification E310, E370     

From surface to deep corporate entrepreneurship

This article will first describe and analyze two very different patterns of entrepreneurship found in large American companies studied by the author. “Surface entrepreneurship” denotes the pattern of entrepreneurial activity found in companies where entrepreneurship was seen as an important business objective that management was trying to promote and accomplish. In contrast, “deep entrepreneurship” denotes the pattern found in companies where entrepreneurship was an important shared value. European firms currently being studied combine elements from these two patterns. These studies suggest the fundamental questions that must be addressed to promote entrepreneurship. Some answers in the form of recommendations to management are presented.     

Marketing Hype: A New Perspective for New Product Research and Introduction

Marketing research procedures typically used to support new product development activities often emphasize the collection of data from potential customers, even when the product success depends on the decisions of a number of key stakeholders such as distributors, media, etc. Consequently, most conventional product introduction efforts focus on a target customer segment and ignore the needs of other stakeholders. These narrowly concentrated research efforts can lead to unfounded expectations regarding the product performance. Similarly, the lopsided focus on consumers can lead to reduced marketing effectiveness. Jerry Wind and Vijay Mahajan argue for the recognition of the process of "marketing hype," a set of prelaunch activities leading to the creation of a supportive market environment. This can lead to the creation of broader strategies that focus on the key stakeholders as subjects for new product research, and targets for the introductory marketing programs. This could lead to a richer understanding of the intergroup influences on the adoption of the new product and increase the chances of a successful new product launch.     

The effect of limited information and estimation risk on optimal portfolio diversification

This paper analyzes the optimal portfolio choice problem when security returns have a joint multivariate normal distribution with unknown parameters. For the case of limited, but sufficient (sample plus prior) information, we show that for a general family of conjugate priors, the optimal portfolio choice is obtained by the use of a mean-variance analysis that differs from traditional mean-variance analysis due to estimation risk. We also consider two illustrative cases of insufficient sample information and minimal prior information and show that in these cases it is asymptotically optimal for an investor to limit diversification to a subset of the securities. These theoretical results corroborate observed investor behavior in capital markets.     

Knowledge flows within multinational corporations

Pursuing a nodal (i.e., subsidiary) level of analysis, this paper advances and tests an overarching theoretical framework pertaining to intracorporate knowledge transfers within multinational corporations (MNCs). We predicted that (i) knowledge outflows from a subsidiary would be positively associated with value of the subsidiary’s knowledge stock, its motivational disposition to share knowledge, and the richness of transmission channels; and (ii) knowledge inflows into a subsidiary would be positively associated with richness of transmission channels, motivational disposition to acquire knowledge, and the capacity to absorb the incoming knowledge. These predictions were tested empirically with data from 374 subsidiaries within 75 MNCs headquartered in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Except for our predictions regarding the impact of source unit's motivational disposition on knowledge outflows, the data provide either full or partial support to all of the other elements of our theoretical framework. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The long-term performance of acquiring firms: A re-examination of an anomaly

In this paper, we investigate the long-term stock return performance of Canadian acquiring firms in the post-event period by using 1300 M&A events in the 1993–2002 period. We use both event-time and calendar-time approaches and conduct robustness tests for benchmarks, methodological choices, statistical techniques and other related factors such as payment methods. We also assess the role of governance variables. Contrary to stylized facts reported in US studies, neither do we find negative abnormal long-term abnormal stock market returns once we account for methodological discrepancies nor do we find negative long-term operating performance in the post-acquisition periods for the acquirer following an acquisition event. We also find that the Canadian market reacts positively to acquisition announcements but corrects for this reaction within a short period of time. Overall we find that Canadian acquisitions do not show value destruction or overpayment.     

Bond pricing with a surface of zero coupon yields

We present a new method for consistent cross‐sectional pricing of all traded bonds in the fixed income market. By applying thin plate regression splines ( Wood, 2003 ) to bootstrapped zero coupon bond yields ( Hagan and West, 2006 ), the method decomposes traded yields into a risk‐free component plus premia for credit and liquidity risks, where the decomposition is consistent with the market valuations and underlying cash flows of the bonds. We apply the framework to end of quarter yield data from 2008 to 2011 on Australian dollar denominated semi‐government, supranational and agency (SSA) bonds, and find that the surface provides an excellent fit to the underlying zero coupon yield curves. Further, the decomposition of selected yield time series and cross‐sections demonstrates how credit premia increased for Australian SSA bonds through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), but were counterbalanced by liquidity discounts as investors sought safe haven securities.